Vaccine calculator estimates

[doireallyneedaname]

Hi All.

A week or so ago I used this calculator (www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk ) (printed in the press again today) out of curiosity and as I am 31 with no known health conditions it estimated I would be eligible between July - Sep 2021

I had another look today and it is now saying Feb - July 2022!

Is this likely? It’s not an official website and is of course not factual, but will the rest of us really have to wait more than a year for a vaccine?

We have followed all the rules and then some, online shopping since February, haven’t been inside anywhere apart from the doctors and Boots (twice!) we don’t meet friends indoors and on the rare occasion we have it’s been outdoors in a park; distanced. I can’t help but feel bleak if this is the case.

I am personally concerned about the effects of COVID, regardless of being considered “healthy.”

You need to take that calculator with a massive pinch of salt. It changes whenever there’s new information. But as you’re young and not at risk then you’re always going to be at the end of the queue and how you’ve behaved during the pandemic has no bearing on when you’ll get the vaccine.

If you're 31 with no underlying health concerns then the virus is an incredibly low risk to you, and only slightly more dangerous than flu.

This is why there is no rush to vaccinate anyone under 50. For older people it is orders of magnitude more risky (100-1000 times).

Not going out is likely worse for your health than the threat of the virus.

I’m going to say now that I am aware the government doesn’t pose COVID to be of significant risk to me personally, but I do. I feel like it’s a gamble, nobody knows how they’re going to get hit by it. My 22 year old perfectly healthy niece was bedridden, with her partner washing and feeding her. Dorothy down the road was asymptomatic at 80.

This post is about estimates for people in my situation, please don’t turn it into anything else.

@starfro

If you're 31 with no underlying health concerns then the virus is an incredibly low risk to you, and only slightly more dangerous than flu.

This is why there is no rush to vaccinate anyone under 50. For older people it is orders of magnitude more risky (100-1000 times).

Not going out is likely worse for your health than the threat of the virus.

I agree, it's really easy and understandable to be worried beyond belief regardless of your age & health etc.

For me, age 35, health condition IBD, I equate the risk as high as driving my car on a motorway. Sure, there's a chance I might get severely injured in a crash, but that doesn't mean it makes me worried to drive that car.

Please note I don't just act upon my own personal risk, I social distance like a trooper because it's essential for getting the infection rate down and keeping people out of hospitals.

I've posted this before but the calculator is very sensitive to the assumptions made about the vaccination rate and the take up rate. For example, it's assuming 1m vaccines a week. If you change that to 2m, the expected date is this summer. If it's 1.5m, it's the autumn. If it's 0.5m, it's 2023 (not saying that to scare you, just showing how sensitive it is).

Also, it shows when the 2nd dose of the vaccine might be given. It's essentially a fairly simple spreadsheet and I'm not entirely sure how well it can model the impact of the delay in giving the 2nd dose especially for those further down the priority list.

I’m 57. I’m not due until November next year despite being in one of the top groups🤷🏼‍♀️

Yes I’m in the same age group and am not expecting to be vaccinated until late this year/early next year. We don’t really need to be vaccinated so are at the bank of the queue. The country will open up long before we are vaccinated so it’s either a choice of get on with it or stay isolated. I’m choosing to get in with it (once they open up the country).

So is everyone just ignoring long COVID and the fact that this virus can also affect young healthy people?

Yes, the country can’t be kept in lockdown because a few under 50s might die or get long covid. These things happen from all illnesses, flu for example. In fact children and young adults are much more at risk from flu then covid. Do you expect restrictions in case you happen to be badly effected from flu?

That is just not factual information. Where is the peer reviewed research & data showing that flu is more dangerous to under 50s than COVID? I’d be very interested to read it.

I was summer 2021 few weeks ago
this week 2022
I'm back at summer 2021 now again

however, this is not an official website, just an estimation, it doesn't take many things into account

I'm over 40, I'm an unpaid carer so that moved mine from 2022 to the middle of this year.
I've never seen unpaid carers get any mention in the vaccine schedule so don't believe it.

Unpaid carers are now in group 6

I've only inserted my age (36) and it's putting me in summer as well

So is everyone just ignoring long COVID and the fact that this virus can also affect young healthy people?

I don't think ppl are ignoring long COVID or any other risk factors, OP. I think they, or at least for me, am not going to let it rule my emotions.

Don't forget that as others are vaccinated, the virus will find it harder to spread. You will be protected by their protection.

Also it seems strongly seasonal to me so risks will drop for summer.

Honestly I think things will be looking up in spring. Deaths, hospitalizations will take a big dive. We will start to see if vaccines reduce transmission- most see to estimate it will, it's harder to spread something without symptoms eg without coughing.

@Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady

Unpaid carers are now in group 6

I've just looked and yes your right, thats fab for me and my children whom 3 have sen. Will no doubt be beneficial for a lot of unpaid carers whom normally get very little. Thank you

Re the vaccine calculator - it is really completely meaningless. As pp pointed out - change the assumptions, it changes the answer. It has no special insight about how the vaccine rollout is going, which is the main thing which will affect how soon you personally are going to receive it.

Re your personal risk of catching Covid - from what you’ve written, it seems you are doing everything you can, and more than. There really is no more you can do. It is true that as more people are vaccinated there will be less scope for the virus to circulate, and that will reduce everyone’s personal risk of catching it.

Finally, I just wanted to say I do understand the fear about your personal situation, because of the unpredictability of this thing. I am on day 6 of symptoms, DH is a few days ahead of me. We are 57 and 60, and I am occasionally driving myself nuts with recollections that people can start out mildly affected, and then suffer a sudden collapse after a week or so.

But for the most part I am reminding myself that the overwhelming majority of people have minor symptoms from which they fully recover within a week or two. At no point have we been so ill we’ve needed to stay in bed. Mostly we’ve got an annoying cough and get tired quicker than usual. And it is overwhelmingly likely that we will both recover full fitness in the coming days or weeks. And then we’ll be immune, at least for a good number of months, possibly years.

The deep irony is that we have both been extremely cautious about all social contact, both to protect ourselves but overwhelmingly to protect the vulnerable people we work with (me in the community, DH in a care home). And where did we catch it.... while this can’t be proved beyond all reasonable doubt, the balance of probabilities points very heavily to DH bringing it home from work and passing it on to me. If only those vaccines had come a few weeks earlier.

I did the calculator and got March April 21. I know for a fact that as an NHS worker, it’s very likely I’ll have it this month, maybe into February depending on how staff are prioritised. I did put that I was a healthcare worker in the calculator, so I wouldn’t trust how accurate it is.

@n00b1 The date in the calculator is when it estimates you will receive your 2nd dose. Allowing for around 12 weeks between doses, that means it's expecting you to get the 1st dose very soon.

[quote CornishYarg]@n00b1 The date in the calculator is when it estimates you will receive your 2nd dose. Allowing for around 12 weeks between doses, that means it's expecting you to get the 1st dose very soon.[/quote]
Ah right, thanks. To be honest I only looked at it because someone linked me to it. I’ve seen photos on my trust Facebook page of some of my higher risk colleagues getting it today, so I’m pretty confident I’ll be getting in the next few weeks.

I plugged in my details last week and it had my in for Summer next year, with the new unpaid carer option I've been bumped up to end March. If they manage to up the rate to 2million/week it changes to mid-feb (just in time for my birthday), more realistic 1.5million/week puts it to beginning March.

Not sure how I feel about being bumped so much higher up in the queue, but it has made me feel more hopeful