Hear me out...a few thoughts about the "more infectious strain"

[Whatever9999]

So a virus is gonna do what a virus is gonna do, its whole raison d'etre is to spread to the next person.

Is it possible that we have actually caused this mutation to dominate by social distancing, wearing masks, etc?

After all if the virus was struggling to spread and multiply with the distancing then as with all evolution, a more transmissible strain would have an evolutionary advantage and so is going to be more successful in being passed on. Its literally how evolution works and the life cycle of a virus is so much shorter than most animals/plants which means it can evolve in a much quicker timescale.

*note I am not saying that we should stop social distancing, I'm simply saying that is it not possible that the virus has simply done what every living organism eventually does (or doesn't and dies out) which is adapt to its surroundings

Partly, yes.

But it's ability to mutate and evolve is also based on the number of replication cycles, which in turn is related to the number of people infected.

So it's probably come about because we isolated and distanced, but ineffectively. Think of it like taking half a course of antibiotics, except this is half-arsed political maneuvering.

Possibly, but we weren’t to know it was a crafty little b=ger, that decided to take the evolutionary route, rather then the extinction route,

Every time a virus is passed on it has the opportunity to mutate, so in reality any measures which slow / halt transmission also slow mutation.

A more transmissible virus has an evolutionary advantage regardless of social distancing, and will eventually out compete the less transmissible version.

@Standrewsschool

Possibly, but we weren’t to know it was a crafty little b=ger, that decided to take the evolutionary route, rather then the extinction route,

Actually, we were to know. All viruses mutate, and the mutation rate of this one can be ascertained by scientists studying it.

I was under the impression that viruses tended to evolve and become more transmittable but weaker if given enough opportunities to mutate. Nothing to do wirh social distancing.

But i may be wrong.

@Standrewsschool

Possibly, but we weren’t to know it was a crafty little b=ger, that decided to take the evolutionary route, rather then the extinction route,

I dont think many organisms "decide to take the extinction route"

... I don't know, objectively, humans are doing a pretty decent job of it...

@RedToothBrush

I was under the impression that viruses tended to evolve and become more transmittable but weaker if given enough opportunities to mutate. Nothing to do wirh social distancing.

But i may be wrong.

I thought that too but I'm far from an expert.

Wasn’t it opening the schools and allowing it to spread again which caused the mutation? Plus all the flouters?

Me too RedToothBrush. I am desperately hoping that's correct and means the terrible case numbers won't result in terrible numbers of deaths, but I accept I may be clutching at straws.

Far too much distortion of news about the new variant. Viruses constantly mutate. Many scientists epidemiologists and doctors refute the fact it is more transmissible. It is because of it being winter and too much remaining open plus covidiots. There is no 'new strain' it is scientifically incorrect. I listen to the world beyond mainstream media which is not only inaccurate but highly toxic and damaging to mental health. Dont believe everything you hear.

A more transmissible mutation will have an evolutionary advantage regardless of social distancing measures. Even in 2019 we’d have had light contact with far more people than we had close contact with.

If it was specifically resistant to hand sanitiser you’d have a point.

I heard an interview with a virologist who made reference to evolutionary pressure placed on viruses as a consequence of human actions to mitigate the impact. It wasn't clear whether this was a significant factor in mutations or if viruses respond in predictable ways in response to mitigating actions.
Happy to accept I misunderstood and hopeful a virologist might join the thread to clarify things.

Is is actually proven that it is more transmissable or just that it is spreading more?

Ancedotal evidence suggests that with the new strain people are seeing a much wider range of symptoms (generally weaker and more cold like). How do we know that it isn't just spreading more becuase we are not paying attention to the new symptoms and isolating when they present rather than relying on the outdated nhs list of a cough, fever or loss of taste/smell.

@thatgingergirl

Me too RedToothBrush. I am desperately hoping that's correct and means the terrible case numbers won't result in terrible numbers of deaths, but I accept I may be clutching at straws.

Unfortunately the experts think this potentially more dangerous under the circumstances simply because of the numbers game and how you end up with more people very sick all at the same time so you cant treat them. That means the mortality rate goes up even though its more treatable and survivable. And you get more indirect deaths from people dying of other things because they too cant get access to healthcare for normally treatable conditions.

So its a double edge sword.

In the long term its a good thing. In the short term its a disaster.

@Manzanilla55

Far too much distortion of news about the new variant. Viruses constantly mutate. Many scientists epidemiologists and doctors refute the fact it is more transmissible. It is because of it being winter and too much remaining open plus covidiots. There is no 'new strain' it is scientifically incorrect. I listen to the world beyond mainstream media which is not only inaccurate but highly toxic and damaging to mental health. Dont believe everything you hear.

This is incorrect on every point. There is a new variant - it even has a name - and it is significantly more transmissible. Another one doing “online research”

@weepingwillow22

Is is actually proven that it is more transmissable or just that it is spreading more?

Ancedotal evidence suggests that with the new strain people are seeing a much wider range of symptoms (generally weaker and more cold like). How do we know that it isn't just spreading more becuase we are not paying attention to the new symptoms and isolating when they present rather than relying on the outdated nhs list of a cough, fever or loss of taste/smell.

There was some suggestion that the new strain attached to ACE receptor cells more easily, meaning that you need to be in contact with less virus to get infected (lower viral load). It was something associated with the part of the virus that has mutated.

So i do think it has got some scientific basis but they are still trying to fully understand it.

And no they don't believe its due to environmental conditions alone but it being winter certainly won't have helped.

You can tell because of how some areas of the country are experiencing lower rates of increase than areas where there are higher rates of the new strain. And as the new strain has increase in prevelance the rate of cases has accelerated.

Someone told me about this link
www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857
Not sure if that answers some questions above, or not.

Should have said the above link is from the British Medical Journal.

RedToothBrush - thank you for explaining that, much as it wasn't what I wanted to hear. Praying the situation has been caught before the tipping point.

Viruses mutate all the time, every time they replicate . It's a random survival strategy ( but it's not a planned strategy.. it does not "try" to evolve in any way )

That means that the more prevalent a virus is, the more mutations will occur .

So the best way to stop a virus mutating into something more dangerous is to suppress the virus

Not sure how they know it's 'more transmissable'. Is it because more people are catching it?

It's entirely predictable that more people will be getting ill at this time of year-it happens every year.

@doublehalo

Not sure how they know it's 'more transmissable'. Is it because more people are catching it?

It's entirely predictable that more people will be getting ill at this time of year-it happens every year.

Statements like this make me despair of he level of scientific literacy in the UK.

@FairyontopofthetreeBatman

Every time a virus is passed on it has the opportunity to mutate, so in reality any measures which slow / halt transmission also slow mutation.

A more transmissible virus has an evolutionary advantage regardless of social distancing, and will eventually out compete the less transmissible version.

This, exactly.

Interesting thread.