Oxford vaccine may not be effective against South African variant

[Ninbus]

This is awful news. I really hope the government take this news seriously and does everything to keep this variant from spreading here. Sadly I don’t have much confidence they will have learnt this lesson

My concern is that we could this virus into something more deadly through our interventions. I have no source for this, I’m just personally worried about that potential.

@DoubleTweenQueen

OMG - not stalking, I hope? :)

.....

@CuriousaboutSamphire

Experts have flagged the potential for antigenic drift undermining the vaccines for some time now. Hopefully they’re working hard on being able to tweak the vaccines as efficiently as possible. We must be prepared, no heads in the sand.

If you re-word that

Experts have explained to the public/journalists the potential for antigenic drift undermining the vaccines for some time now. That's why many labs are working hard on being able to tweak the vaccines as efficiently as possible. We are prepared, no heads in the sand. Try to read through the journalistic urge to catastrophise

A friend's DD is working in one such lab; there are a few epidemiologists posting on MN; many othes of us have a smattering of epidemiilogy and/or Public Health work. I doubt we'll stop shouting about shite journalism undermining the message many scientists are trying to convey!

If you consider post I wrote catastrophising than lord knows what you make of most of the threads on here. 😂 Your interpretation is essentially what I meant when I wrote it. Antigenic drift is a concern with C19, as it can be for other vaccines, it’s real, but they’re working on it.

^ The point that people shouldn’t panic if a significant mutation occurs. Denying it as an impossibility as some have done in this thread just sets them up for a meltdown at a later point. People need to be aware this is possible and not to be too afraid if it does. The scientists have it in hand.

@Em777 Sorry about that!

I have been typing about shite journalism for a few weeks/months now, apologies. Your paragraph just felt right to rephrase to try and show what I have been trying to explain. Just a few words, a turn of phrase and it all seems so much worse - cos they woudn't want it to sound better now would they> - see all the weird horror filled articles when not one but two vaccines were annonced in the same week!

@Saylethewayles

OK so the actual story is that it may make the vaccine 20% less effective but that they could tweak it if needed in 4-6 weeks.

Thank god you put this I was crying this morning ❤️

[quote CuriousaboutSamphire]@Em777 Sorry about that!

I have been typing about shite journalism for a few weeks/months now, apologies. Your paragraph just felt right to rephrase to try and show what I have been trying to explain. Just a few words, a turn of phrase and it all seems so much worse - cos they woudn't want it to sound better now would they> - see all the weird horror filled articles when not one but two vaccines were annonced in the same week![/quote]
Yes, there have been all too many misleading pieces in the press lately.

My post was inarticulate anyways, so invited your rephrasing, not enough coffee today. 😂

There is criticising scaremongering and there is burying your head in the sand to avoid bad news. Having a go at the OP for posting this when even the health secretary is commenting on it seems to me to be veering towards the latter, though admittedly the press do like to be over dramatic with their headlines (especially the Mail) while the actual article is usually more balanced.

None of us just read the headlines though do we........

@Notthemessiah. Hancock has only talked about how transmissible it is not about the vaccine unless you have a link for a relevant comment ?

The journalistic reputation of the Mail was trashed years ago, but in these days of competing for the most sensational headline it's not so far out of step with the rest - especially the BBC and even the Torygraph after the farce over "the matron"

However none of it negates the basic point that viruses mutate, that almost none have ever been completely eradicated and that, in the end, Covid may be no different

Which is why some of us have resisted the "magic bullet" narrative - and that's without the complete mess being made of their rollout

But the vaccine will help reduce severity and spread.

The less it spreads, the less the mutations .

@Puzzledandpissedoff

The journalistic reputation of the Mail was trashed years ago, but in these days of competing for the most sensational headline it's not so far out of step with the rest - especially the BBC and even the Torygraph after the farce over "the matron"

However none of it negates the basic point that viruses mutate, that almost none have ever been completely eradicated and that, in the end, Covid may be no different

Which is why some of us have resisted the "magic bullet" narrative - and that's without the complete mess being made of their rollout

I think we really need to hope that science can at least drastically reduce the impact of Covid though. I'm not aware of any other disease that has the potential to have such a catastrophic long-term impact. If reinfection turns out to be the norm, then we are essentially going to have to live with a potentially lethal/severely debilitating virus that comes around like a common cold.

BlueBlancmange

Thanks for posting a link to the interview. I found the absence of "dumbing down" quite reassuring. There can be no promises or certainties in the current situation and I liked the fact that Prof Bell was optimistic without sugar coating the difficulties we face.

I think we really need to hope that science can at least drastically reduce the impact of Covid though. I'm not aware of any other disease that has the potential to have such a catastrophic long-term impact. If reinfection turns out to be the norm, then we are essentially going to have to live with a potentially lethal/severely debilitating virus that comes around like a common cold

In the absence of effective scientific intervention I mean. I know we ultimately have no control over this, but in this respect I think Covid is different to other viruses that we haven't eradicated.

@Obviouspretzel

Ridiculous how the OP has posted a genuine news article for discussion and is being lambasted for it.

Yes, I don't like the Daily Mail either. But it is a newspaper whether you like it or not, sorry. It is also being reported by the Guardian and Times, among others. I think it is a valid topic for discussion whether it is incorrect, scaremongering, incompatible with your beliefs etc.

This! I came on MN this morning after hearing Matt Hancock quoted in an interview saying he was 'worried' about the South African variant and expected to find a few threads on it. Now someone has actually posted (thanks, OP) and people are piling on them, shaming them, saying how disgusting it is etc etc. Bloody hell! People did this to anyone who mentioned in the summer there might possibly be a second wave, or who suggested that packing loads of kids into classooms in September may help to spread the virus.

Honestly the amount of sneering and hate on MN lately makes me want to stop using the site. It's so depressing.

For what it's worth, OP I am concerned about this too and I think it's fine to post about it. No doubt someone will be along shortly to tell me I'm a cunt for thinking that.

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-south-african-variant/

In my opinion, the world has to learn to live with the virus.[and yes, that does mean premature death to some people, especially some elderly, and possibly a few overweight younger people in particular].

Viruses mutate.

Apparently the only virus able to be eradicated was SARS?

The interviewer is summing up to a certain conclusion that John Bell has not actually stated, and media reports have extrapolated from that. The effectiveness of the current vaccines against the SA 484 mutation in the spike protein is being looked at right now - which is an ongoing effort as other variants in the target antigenic regions emerge.
Prof Bell Is being measured and trying to explain in as simple a way he is able. I would listen to the interview a few times to understand what he's saying.

For what it's worth, OP I am concerned about this too and I think it's fine to post about it. No doubt someone will be along shortly to tell me I'm a cunt for thinking that. Have you read the input from posters who, like myself, have not lambasted OP at all but have tried to point out why most forms of media choose to write such stuff?

Which version of Hancock's speech did you read about? His actual words were quite sensible. Not full of fear but acknowledging that he SA variant was different from the UK one and would need serious measure to be taken to prevent it spreading.

www.itv.com/news/2021-01-04/covid-matt-hancock-very-worried-by-south-african-variant

I have seen other versions which give a totally different perspective on what he actually said!

Apologies, that should read 'effectiveness of the current vaccines to the SA virus variant carrying the 484 mutation within the spike protein'.

The 20% less effective is a for instance - it is an ongoing evaluation

Scientist on world at one today said if the vaccine wasn’t as effective with the new strain (which we don’t know yet ) it would require a simple tweak. We will know if this is needed in the next few weeks. So at worst, it just delays things a little.

The issue with this thread is its title, which is misleading .

Sorry I've not had time to read the whole thread.

Surely the vaccine can be tweaked like the flu vaccine is every single year?

I read that Oxford university had the framework for this vaccine ready and waiting for a pandemic before they even had the genetic code for COVID-19.

That it took a few days to splice the gene sequence into the carrier. What's taken the time is the human trials, not the making of the correct formula.

On that basis I'm sure the vaccine can be adapted. For example; The flu mutates every year and the vaccine is adjusted. It doesn't go through phase 1,2 and 3 clinical trials each time. Unless I'm missing something, I'm assuming this won't be so very different.

I'm just very thankful it's our scientists with this knowledge.

@Ninbus and @IcedPurple

It was also mentioned by Devi sridhar on Twitter- vaccine may not work - not definitely won’t

She's neither a virologist nor an immunologist, so her opinion isn't especially relevant

Sorry for the rant, and I don't have anything against this lady obviously, but I'm fed up of opinators cropping up all over twitter trying to gain a bit ot self-publicity and tooting their own horn when their credentials on the subject are questionable to say the least

I don't like this 'it's in major newspapers.'

Have you seen some of them over the last year? They've been appalling at scare-mongering and speculation. They've done that on purpose because frightening people gets you more sales/clicks. And that's even publications like the BBC/NYT/Guardian.

It's absolutely one thing to discuss these things but people do have a duty to post in a measured way. There are a lot of extremely vulnerable people hovering on this board who are already feeling frightened and desperate.