The area where I live have lowering infections. Anyone else?

[hettyhooverdoover]

I look most days at the figures in my area and we are now 104 cases per 100,000. It was 160 the week before Christmas.

We have had no cases in my child's school, no bubble has closed since Sep. I feel we can't treat the whole country in the same way, I don't think all schools need to close like people are demanding. We are tier 3 now but when cases were higher we were tier 2?

Exponential growth, rough estimate 1 week doubling time:

1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128

If you are in a low level area, it's going to take 6 weeks of having the new variant in your area before you see it explode and dominate over the old variant. But when you see it, you will know you've seen it.

Cases are given as a 7-day rolling rate with the most recent date being at least 5 days ago (as it takes that long to get all the data in). Tests from 24th-26th December were artificially low (people didn’t go for tests). So it will be the 7th Jan before the 7-day rate shows the post-Christmas rise. Quite a few places are “falling” at the moment because of the reduced tests on 24/25/26 December.

This is a useful site
www.covidmessenger.com

Sadly up about 35% here 22nd to 28th, huge leap.

Our rate has gone from 80 in mid December to 300 per the bbc website, and looking at the number of cases since then it’s gone up even more in the last few days.

@JellyBabiesSaveLives

Cases are given as a 7-day rolling rate with the most recent date being at least 5 days ago (as it takes that long to get all the data in). Tests from 24th-26th December were artificially low (people didn’t go for tests). So it will be the 7th Jan before the 7-day rate shows the post-Christmas rise. Quite a few places are “falling” at the moment because of the reduced tests on 24/25/26 December.

This is a useful site
www.covidmessenger.com

Thank you. That's very useful. Maybe not a true picture then

it was edging down but tonight has shot up again. Tier 4, high case area with schools closed etc.
I assume that it's the Christmas effect- it's been around 11/12 days.