Analysis of Covid responses of 41 countries - School/Uni closure effect

[Backyard72]

A very interesting Meta-Analysis of the effects on transmission resulting from various Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) put in place by 41 countries during the first 6 months of 2020.

science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338

Basically, it would appear the most effective NPI is limiting gatherings to less than 10 people (Reduces R rate by 42%), with the 2nd most effective NPI closing schools & universities (Reduces R rate by 38%) - Who would'a thunk it, Gav?

Kind of shows just how important schools are at driving transmission, as we knew all along!

Note: this research was done on data prior to the emergence of the variant strain. I'm not sure how or if the new strain change these figures.

Data only go to end of May 2020, and therefore don't describe schools/Unis that tried to implement covid-secure protocols.

IIRC, this the same study that found that mask-wearing made negligible difference (but I really only know the preprint version). Probably something has changed a lot, the preprint came out so long ago the peer reviewers must have reshaped it a lot.

... yeah, hugely reworked approach, see figure S9.

I imagine that's in supplemental because it is so inferential.

The data for what happens when effectively SAHO are in place but schools are open -- are only being collected now in UK. I can't keep up with what is happening in other countries.

I'm. So fed up with the cries of shut the schools.
My ds is supposed to be sitting exams this year.. There have been 8 cases in a school of over 900

What are the kids going to do without qualifications??

You either stop a virus in its tracks or let it run its course..

We have gone way beyond stopping it in its tracks so we have to let it run its course
I'm not saying let it run rampant but we need to balance risk and reward.

The risk of our kids not getting any qualifications for me is unacceptable

@MedSchoolRat

... yeah, hugely reworked approach, see figure S9.

I imagine that's in supplemental because it is so inferential.

The data for what happens when effectively SAHO are in place but schools are open -- are only being collected now in UK. I can't keep up with what is happening in other countries.

"Stay at Home" would appear to have a relatively low effect compared to other NPI options.

A) other countries have stopped it in its tracks

B) exams are not the only way to create qualifications

C) I am fed up, as a teacher, with the cries of "keep the schools open, come what may!" as, oddly enough, it's not that simple

D)schools could be made safer rather than closed, but the mask-refusers etc. mean that teachers and support staff are much less protected here than in other countries. And our government don't want to fund schools to make them safer - actually refuse to help with additional cleaning costs etc.

E) letting it run its course means putting my family (2 of which are clinically extremely vulnerable) at risk. Oddly, I'm not keen on my teenage son dying early or getting long-term symptoms just to keep schools "normal" .

There has got to be a better way with schools. Keep them open as usual with no extra safety measures/ funding and in fact less safety (testing instead of isolating for close contacts, for example) is not it.
And even if people give no fucks whatsoever about teachers and support staff, if we're ill, schools will close anyway.