Are schools actually the main spreader of covid?

[Newyearsamecovid]

People on here are constantly saying that schools are the biggest spreader and to start I accept the fact that obviously there will be spread in schools.

However here we are, schools have been closed 10 days and yet we have the highest confirmed cases on record. I appreciate people may have mixed over Christmas, but from what’s being said, 30 separate kids from different households being crammed in a classroom with no social distancing would surely be more spreadable than say 2/3 households round the dinner table?

Looking at the stats, infection rates for all children are consistently quite far behind the infection rates of 20-40 year olds also - who are not at school.

Given schools are one the only places open, you’d expect it to be a very different picture. You would expect schools to be the place everyone is catching it but the figures just don’t seem to point to this.

So why do we think schools are the driving factor in spreading covid?

Carriers? Maybe children don't show symptoms?

It definitely spreads in schools due to lack of sd masks etc. The cases you see now are from the end of term - dont forget a few days to 14 days in duration period, kids generally not getting 3 main symptoms so often not tested but pass it on and the adult tests, so a bit of delay. Next few days/week will be from xmas period mixing.

"Looking at the stats, infection rates for all children are consistently quite far behind the infection rates of 20-40 year olds also - who are not at school"

If you look at official tests, this is what you see but that is because a lot of kids barely have symptoms and sometimes their symptoms are different to adults.

If you look at the ons figures which is random sampling of the population and does not rely on people going for tests or having symptoms then you see a very different story in that school aged kids especially secondary have been the most infected age group since the end October.

Schools may not be the biggest source of infections compared with say hospitals and care homes but it is a significant one. Estimates earlier in the year were that closing schools would bring r down by up to 0.5. Since you can't close hospitals or care homes it is the major source of infection if tier 4 does not work

Data is very quiet about hospital/ carehome spread.

10,000s more patients have been discharged post-Covid than admitted for it.

In good news, lockdown has slashed Norovirus rates since mid-March 2020, so at least around isolations, there's been far less learning lost to the 48hr rule, swathes of classes off in close succession and school clousures for that. Nice to know it works for something

Schools look bad because a handful of cases can significantly disrupt the cohort. One larger family can knock out half a school.

There is a coronavirus topic for this.

Allow for lag

Rates shooting up in schools (notably, but possibly coincidentally in new variant areas)

Term ends 17/18. Cases caught at end of term are passed on to non-school contacts of the pupils roughly 22-26 Dec. Cases from those another 5-7 days later - now. Where we are seeing record levels of positive tests.

No, none of this is proof. But it's a plausntk hypothesis

*plausible

Can someone explain to me why the hospitalisations and deaths were so low over the summer? We were eating out to help out, visiting each others' houses, hanging out in pubs and so on and yet we didn't see an exponential rise in cases. But since September we've seen this massive spike again. Why would that be? Could it be because schools and universities went back in September?

Data is currently up to the 26th December, so still within school time frame and not including those who contracted it on Xmas day.

ONS studies include children who have no symptoms. The various studies quoted by the UK governments are for symptomatic children. The ONS studies show conclusively that the largest number of infections in the population are in secondary age children who can spread the virus just the same as an adult. You then take 30 or so of those children, put them closely together in a badly ventilated room for hours on end with several adults and you have a perfect super spreader event.
It is not rocket science. The scientists on telly carefully word answers which are deliberately obfuscating the truth that schools spread infections.

Simple answer is that schools were closed. Look at the spike in infections in early September when schools went back.
It really is not rocket science.

My husband started feeling unwell on Xmas eve... headache, tired, achy.. on the 28th he tested positive by a lateral flow test. We all got tested on 29th and my secondary age daughter tested positive.

She now remembers a runny nose on the 22nd and then also how a girl at school was coughing on the last few days at school....

I feel rubbish, waiting for another test result... my friend ( we are her support bubble) also feels rubbish and waiting for test results.

It could have come from other places ( we have been shopping etc) but I am pretty sure it came from school.

@RoyBatty

Simple answer is that schools were closed. Look at the spike in infections in early September when schools went back. It really is not rocket science.

Schools wouldn't have caused a spike in early September thst was eat out to help out they would have caused a spike end of September early October

Op, the scientists said we have not seen Christmas mixing stats yet, there is always a lag from catching the virus, then becoming unwell.
In this case we have been told Christmas effects will come out next week, so we are seeing the crescendo of those last weeks of term.

Now the new mutant strain is seeded, it will be another 3 weeks after school goes back that we see that result!

Schools wouldn't have caused a spike in early September thst was eat out to help out they would have caused a spike end of September early October

Interesting though if it was eat out to help out that it only had an effect in September why would it not have lead to increases from the 2nd week of August?

I don't know the answer but I think it's too simplistic to assume it was that and not look further

Op, like you understanding how the stats work is not my skill set or strong point.
In health topic, corona there is a brilliant thread called something like daily stats and I lurk there to read what far more clued up people make of the daily figs.

Looking at the data though cases originally began to rise in October which also correlates with seasonal disease rises (e.g - flu season kicks off then too)
Cases don’t appear to have risen at all when some schools went back in June either.
Cases then fell between November - December when we were in lockdown but schools remained open.
Again I’m not denying covid spreads in school, of course it does - it spreads everywhere, just whether it really is an overriding factor in case numbers. There’s a lot of ‘social media’ experts around so it’s hard to get the true picture out of what people are saying.

@carlaCox

Can someone explain to me why the hospitalisations and deaths were so low over the summer? We were eating out to help out, visiting each others' houses, hanging out in pubs and so on and yet we didn't see an exponential rise in cases. But since September we've seen this massive spike again. Why would that be? Could it be because schools and universities went back in September?

It’s a seasonal endemic virus so the spread over winter was inevitable. It’s far more easily spread this time of year.

Here’s some information on schools ieureka.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/

I’m a secondary teacher and anecdotally there didn’t seem to be much evidence that there was spread in school. We had cases and isolations but none of the close contacts showed symptoms.

I do think there were several other factors that tied into schools reopening eg

1. More people going into offices/workplaces as they didn’t have to be at home with their kids
2. A change in mentality - if it’s safe for DD to mix with 2000 students I can’t see the problem with me seeing 1/2/5 friends?
3. Unis also went back which meant moving between areas, forming new households etc

All of which (and probably more) would drive up the infection rate.

plus schools going back coincided with Autumn/Winter kicking in and a respiratory virus behaving in an entirely predictable way for a respiratory virus, same as with flu, rates wise in winter with colder temperatures, people cooped up more indoors in bad weather, everyone immune systems weaker with less daylight, fresh air, excercise.

I don't believe there was much spread in schools..Kids were testing positive after picking it up from parents outside school. My 15y olds bubble burst 3 times with a kid testing positive. In each case, positive kid tested after a parent had tested positive, had no symptoms and none of the other 29 kid sin the bubble who had to isolate for 14 days ever developed symptoms or tested positive.

I don't think so. The second wave started in Spain in August, August was the month when it was clear that another wave was coming. There were no schools open that month or the months before yet cases spiked.

Somebody has mentioned that it is schools as in summer when we opened up a bit there were no spikes...Maybe there weren't so many cases in summer here because it is easier to socialize outdoors and there isn't so much spread outdoors, whilst now some people will go indoors because it is too cold to be outside. Personally, we went to eat out this summer a couple of times and we asked for a table outdoors, of course. If the weather is lovely, why wouldn't I eat outdoors if the weather is nice and it is safer? I am definitely not going to eat outdoors now! And restaurants have been open until very recently.

When DS goes back they will have to wear masks constantly while indoors/not eating.
On top of windows/doors all open.
On top of spending all day in same single room/bubble.
On top of only able to change out of PE clothes on rainy days.

I predict the constant masking will make zero difference to school spread.

I can't believe we're this far into the pandemic and people still have such low understanding of how the disease works.

The latest data shows younger age groups have much higher rates than adults.

The latest ONS data is for the week 17-24th December, when schools had just closed and well within the incubation period. The figures reported by the papers for individual days are less reliable, but you're right they are increasing. Spread of virus is complicated and one case can become 10 and then 100 very rapidly due to asymptomatic spread and exponential increase.

The figures don't tell where anyone caught it. Lack of evidence doesn't mean something isn't happening. Track and trace had no interest in the fact that 5 other staff in my school had tested positive within 4 days of my positive test.

Parents are the main cause 🤷‍♀️
Schools are trying their best with masks ,bubbles and isolating but as soon as the school bell rings then groups of teenagers are hanging around in groups everywhere without a care in the world and parents obviously know they are not home.
Also younger kids going on play dates with mummy's friends kids while the mummies drink coffee🤷‍♀️
We can't blame schools until parents start taking responsibility 😡

"I don't believe there was much spread in schools..Kids"

I think this is a common belief but the lack of any systematic or proactive testingbin schools obscures things.

Most kids do not get the classic symptoms so the spread in schools goes under the radar. Lots of kids have no signs at all. Just "sniffles" etc.

It is difficult to explain how secondary kids have do much higher infection than other age groups of they are simply catching at home. Lots of schools had out teams amongst staff despite spending break and lunch with kids (not other staff) due to lack of seating or shelter in outdoor spaces for each bubble.

I think on average infections and outbreaks of up to a third of your entire staff is common in some places hospitals care homes refrigerated food production and schools.

Even the government admitted infections in Greenwich schools was high in secondary kids, and they were worried about it spreading to other age groups. How could this be true if they were only catching it from their parents?