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Original poster

Criteria for closing primary schools

63 replies

Fortyfiver · 31/12/2020 09:34

Can anyone point me in the direction of the criteria the Government has used to decide in which council areas the primary schools are to close?

My DC go to school in a London Borough which is remaining open (Greenwich).

I am conflicted - on the one hand I am happy that they can continue to go to school as home learning was not easy (which I think is the experience most of us had last time!) but on the other hand are my DC being used by the government for some kind or revenge/ power play?
Greenwich unilaterally decided to close before Christmas and the government threatened them with legal action - now they are on the list of open boroughs Hmm

The class WhatsApp is going crazy with all sorts of wild ideas - I just wondered whether there is some official information I could look at?

Thank you

OP posts:
Rainallnight · 31/12/2020 10:22

Here’s the Govt guidance on the boroughs with closed primaries but the criteria aren’t very clear

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948580/Contingency_framework_implementation_guidance.pdf

picklespark · 31/12/2020 10:25

@Fortyfiver

Can anyone point me in the direction of the criteria the Government has used to decide in which council areas the primary schools are to close?

My DC go to school in a London Borough which is remaining open (Greenwich).

I am conflicted - on the one hand I am happy that they can continue to go to school as home learning was not easy (which I think is the experience most of us had last time!) but on the other hand are my DC being used by the government for some kind or revenge/ power play?
Greenwich unilaterally decided to close before Christmas and the government threatened them with legal action - now they are on the list of open boroughs Hmm

The class WhatsApp is going crazy with all sorts of wild ideas - I just wondered whether there is some official information I could look at?

Thank you

I also instantly thought this when seeing Islington was not on the list either; they did the same thing as Greenwich before Xmas. Punishment for daring to stand up to the government...
picklespark · 31/12/2020 10:27

@NOTANUM

I wonder if it's related to the rate of vulnerable children and/or child poverty in these areas. I know we think of Islington and Camden as being very trendy but there is also significant deprivation in a way that there isn't in some of the other boroughs.

I have no evidence for this - it's purely a hypothesis. But there must be some rationale for having some boroughs' school open as normal and others shut in a very connected city.

Why is Tower Hamlets on the list then? It’s got some of the worst deprivation you can imagine. There is literally no criteria that makes sense.
Original poster
Fortyfiver · 31/12/2020 10:29

@notanum if it were to benefit poorer children wouldn't it be simpler to just include those on FSM with the key worker/ vulnerable children that can go to school? London boroughs really do not simply divide into wealthy/deprived - places like Lewisham and Greenwich have multimillion pound houses rubbing shoulders with council estates.

I am glad many think there is a method to the madness and it is not a conspiracy theory - I was starting to doubt my sanity Grin

OP posts:
christinarossetti19 · 31/12/2020 10:31

I don't think it is 'punishment'.

Waltham Forest is on the list, and they also wrote to parents shifting learning online for the last week of term.

christinarossetti19 · 31/12/2020 10:33

littleowl1 who is much more knowledgeable about the data than pretty much most people, reckons there are complex calculations based on bed availability etc.

The obvious flaw in this that areas which currently have some hospital capacity won't in approx a weeks time after schools have returned.

Solidaritea · 31/12/2020 10:41

@christinarossetti19

littleowl1 who is much more knowledgeable about the data than pretty much most people, reckons there are complex calculations based on bed availability etc.

The obvious flaw in this that areas which currently have some hospital capacity won't in approx a weeks time after schools have returned.

It can't be to do with hospital capacity. Harrow shares Northwick Park with Brent. It is on the border exactly. It's also part of a hospital Trust shared with Ealing.

2 out of those 3 have closed schools and the other has them open. It's also not case rates, as the one with open schools has higher case rates.

MotherExtraordinaire · 31/12/2020 10:42

@Char2015

One of the main reasons I keep coming across as reported by council leaders who have spoken to ministers is that one of the key factors is local hospital capacity. However, even the data regarding this doesn't support why some areas have not been included on the list. St Thomas Hospital for example is based in Southwark, but a very large number of patients admitted are Lambeth residents as Lambeth is literally next door to Southwark. I don't think they have grasped that hospitals see patients from different boroughs not just patients from their own boroughs.
That doesn't make sense though. We're supposedly open. Everywhere around is closed. We have no hospitals in our district and rely on the hospitals in these closed areas. Have rates in high 600s. Its madness.
IloveJKRowling · 31/12/2020 10:48

I suspect you might all be assuming a level of competence and reasoning that are not compatible with the levels of competence and reasoning displayed thus far by the DfE.

I wouldn't put it past them to have accidentally missed off a load of London boroughs.

IloveJKRowling · 31/12/2020 10:52

Either that or they're doing something very crude like above/below 650* cases per 100k population over 7 days.

In which case why 650 (or whatever the cut off is)? I doubt it's science based.

*I have no reason to believe it's 650 - I am plucking this figure out of the air. Which I suspect is also what might be going on at DfE.

2020out · 31/12/2020 10:57

@IloveJKRowling

Either that or they're doing something very crude like above/below 650* cases per 100k population over 7 days.

In which case why 650 (or whatever the cut off is)? I doubt it's science based.

*I have no reason to believe it's 650 - I am plucking this figure out of the air. Which I suspect is also what might be going on at DfE.

At least you picked a number! Dfe haven't. Unless they have access to different data to the rest of us.
BunsyGirl · 31/12/2020 10:58

It cannot be hospital capacity. I live in an area of Essex where the schools remain open. However, my DCs go to school 12 miles away in an area where the schools are closed. Guess where our local hospital is? Yes, in the same area that the schools are closed.

Swimmingiscancelled · 31/12/2020 10:59

I am very confused too. We are in a borough which borders 2 closed boroughs with rates of 650+ and rising. We are Tory Surrey so it just seems like general incompetence rather than political point scoring on this occasion. Who the fuck knows.

christinarossetti19 · 31/12/2020 11:05

Solidaritea I don't pretend to understand. littleowl1's gist was that there are complex calculations used to decide.

Although I think the suggestion that the govt just missed some boroughs off or doesn't know the names of all the London boroughs is probably about right.

starrynight19 · 31/12/2020 11:07

@IloveJKRowling

I suspect you might all be assuming a level of competence and reasoning that are not compatible with the levels of competence and reasoning displayed thus far by the DfE.

I wouldn't put it past them to have accidentally missed off a load of London boroughs.

Yes likely this , it you wait a while you will probably find a few more added on in the hope no one has noticed.
dreamingbohemian · 31/12/2020 11:08

But hospitals don't align with school districts, as others have said. And a Greenwich hospital made the news this week for nearly running out of oxygen.

I would have been fine with a decision either way if A) it applied to everyone in London OR B) the criteria for different treatment were published so we could be reassured.

But now it just feels like: hey there's a mutant plague rampaging through your city but you're on your own

newmum1976 · 31/12/2020 11:17

@Fortyfiver If you click on the heat map in the 5-9 row, latest column, it gives you the rates.

Original poster
Fortyfiver · 31/12/2020 11:39

@newmum1976 thank you!

Greenwich the rolling rate 5-9yr olds at 23 Dec 331.8 (open)

Southwark (261.5) (closed)

Tunbridge Wells 341.1 (closed)

No correlation there then?

OP posts:
HibernatingTill2030 · 31/12/2020 11:41

It's really odd.
I would have thought they would have just closed all Greater London schools and be done with it. And specifically said that no child is to leave the GL area to go to a school outside of it if schools are open there.

Useruseruserusee · 31/12/2020 11:56

@IloveJKRowling

I suspect you might all be assuming a level of competence and reasoning that are not compatible with the levels of competence and reasoning displayed thus far by the DfE.

I wouldn't put it past them to have accidentally missed off a load of London boroughs.

Exactly. They missed off Redbridge and had to sneakily add it to the bottom of the list later.

It can’t be anything to do with deprivation. Tower Hamlets and Barking and Dagenham are both closed.

heydoggee · 31/12/2020 11:58

I think it's the trajectory of the virus in those areas and whether it's passed it's peak.

LacyEdge · 31/12/2020 12:11

Westminster and Kensington & Chelsea primary schools are closed, with much lower rates than Greenwich. It is insane.

Our area is open even though our rates are higher and our local hospital just declared a major incident.

Wtf are they playing at?

IloveJKRowling · 31/12/2020 12:16

I think it's the trajectory of the virus in those areas and whether it's passed it's peak

Well it will achieve a new peak pretty soon if they're 'just past a peak' and open up again with no mitigation, won't they?

Opening schools in areas that have high rates of the new variant without more funding and better mitigation (masks from age 6 for example) is only going to make things worse.

heydoggee · 31/12/2020 12:19

@IloveJKRowling

I think it's the trajectory of the virus in those areas and whether it's passed it's peak

Well it will achieve a new peak pretty soon if they're 'just past a peak' and open up again with no mitigation, won't they?

Opening schools in areas that have high rates of the new variant without more funding and better mitigation (masks from age 6 for example) is only going to make things worse.

Well you say that, but that didn't happen last time. So who knows?!
IloveJKRowling · 31/12/2020 12:21

They didn't open the schools when 'just past a peak' last time? They waited until rates were below 50/ 100k before reopening.

Rates in school aged children have been rising continuously since September and since they reopened after half term.

They went down a bit over half term. Then rose again as soon as they reopened.