How long will schools be closed for?

[UndertheCedartree]

Just wondering people's thoughts on this? Will it be like last time or likely to be shorter?

Thank you for all the thoughts.

@Waxonwaxoff0 - we are in an area where primary will be closed (to most DC).

@BumbleBeegu - I'm so sorry to hear you are scared . Our rate here is 1000/10000. Not sure whether there is a cut off point at which they close primary? We also have had the opportunity of widespread community testing so you can get a test with no symptoms. The council had asked that DC and their families were tested before the return to school. I think it was a pilot scheme so not sure if it will be rolled out. I hope things go ok for you next week.

@louisejxxx - yes

@NYNY211 - what do you mean testing will be innacurate without symptoms? They have been doing widespread community testing of those without symptoms round here.

[quote UndertheCedartree]@NYNY211 - what do you mean testing will be innacurate without symptoms? They have been doing widespread community testing of those without symptoms round here.[/quote]
When you usually send a swob off it says it needs to be taken within a certain amount of days is it 4 days? I cannot remember. Are you in Liverpool?

They have been doing widespread community testing of those without symptoms round here.

If you’re in Liverpool it missed 60% of cases.

If you’re at Birmingham university it missed 97% of cases.

@NYNY211 - ah, I see. I'm in Essex.

@noblegiraffe - wow! We're in Essex. Just based on my DD's school it did pick up a lot of cases. Pretty much the whole school was in isolation over Christmas. Although of course I have no idea how many may have been missed.

If you’re in Wales, some secondary schools are opening on Wednesday.

@inquietant

I don't think 1 in 5 will be disabled long term. I do think 1 in 5 will get long covid.

Working parents are especially at risk due to a) work contact b) school contact and c) no time to rest.

1 in 5 is across the whole population - but women over 45 are especially at risk. If I was 21 with time to rest and no dependents I would be less mindful of it.

I hope that you're right re long term disability, however, every week there seems to be a new link made. For example, now arthritis provoked by the long covid and we all know that this well and truly does lead to disability. So though you may be accurate that long covid itself will not cause obvious disabilities immediately, longer term I think that this may well be the case.

This is partly a result of needing 2 parents constantly at work. They keep saying that it will be bad for the kids, what they really mean is it will be bad for the economy. kids have done very well with a poor education and several months or even a year is nothing in the grand scheme of things. LIFE is far more important!!

I think for those in Tier 4 and on 'the list' - schools will be shut for longer than the last lockdown.

If this new variant is more contagious/has a higher R number - there's no chance of opening up for more than a couple of weeks before schools get shut again.

Forever. Who cares about kids.

until half term at least.

My guess is after Feb half term at the earliest.

@noblegiraffe

Statistics show teachers are no more at risk that the rest of the population, Ie there is not a higher case rate. So it’s moot.

That’s not true.

Statistics show that teacher infection rate maps pupil infection rate and we know that kids and young people are the most infected subset of the population.

Exactly!

Also this

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-schools-urgent-warning-over-misleading-teacher-covid-data%3famp

I think it's just impossible to know at the moment. Hopefully it goes according to plan, but we don't know how the rates stands after the holidays, so no point in speculating.

Our tier 4 primary is open on Monday for now, 35 in a class. I think it will be closed in a couple of weeks, DDs secondary, 18 in a class is closed with home learning until at least 18th bit I think best case both will be closed until February, worst case easter.

It is until "at least" the 18th, the closure will be reviewed then.

All London Primaries are now staying closed

I would be very surprised if they returned this a academic year in areas primaries are shut.

The obligation is to review like the tier system and no one every goes down a tier so assume more schools will be added to the closed list in time but those closed will not reopen.

@Abraxan

Statistics show teachers are no more at risk that the rest of the population, Ie there is not a higher case rate. So it’s moot.

That information generally comes from data taken during the first wave, when schools had half size class bubbles and vulnerable school staff were generally working from home.
It also,separates out all teaching and school staff into separate groups, rather than as a whole, which skews the data somewhat.

Unless you have a source which covers the data from September to December perhaps?

Surely no one outside the government can reasonably consider having close contacts in schools, with no masks and no social distancing, just tested with a 50% (if done properly) effective swab as being a sensible idea?!?!

Well said. Of course they are at higher risk! Noone can seriously believe they are not. They are at EVEN MORE risk now!

I'd say probably until Easter easily. Of course that depends on how sensible the Government are and what happens to cases.