Risk of Covid-19 transmission outside

[Haenow]

I’m unclear as to the risks outside and I’d be really grateful if anyone could please point me in the direction of reputable information.

My family have expressed concern that I am meeting up with friends as I am clinically extremely vulnerable. I am following the rules in my area; I meet one friend at a time and we go for walks, keeping at a distance of 2 metres, if practical. My understanding is that the chance of transmission is virtually nil in this context.

Thank you in advance.

I went for a walk with a friend who fell ill the next day and tested positive. I didn’t catch it. Anecdotal I know but everything I’ve read seems to point to being outside with others is very low risk. Not sure if that’s the same for the new strain.

It is extremely low especially if you socially distance.

I worry about this too but all the evidence suggests the risk of outdoor transmission is low, even when the distance is under 2m.

We know the new variant is more transmissible, but we don't know how.

It may well be more infectious outside than the strain we're used to.

We have no idea yet.

I wouldn't want my shielding mum and dad to risk it.

I have been interested in relative humidity studies on the family of coronaviruses (mostly performed on those they knew about before this one). This can apply inside or outside. Both conditions that are too damp or too dry (especially air being heated inside and losing a lot of moisture) can 'help' spread of active particles because of the distance that they can travel before hitting a surface.

In terms of weather conditions, sunlight is a good thing to have, and decent air movement. Right now we have little sunlight and a lot of moisture in the air in comparison to late Summer. In other words, I suspect that some of the earlier advice may not be as reliable now. Moist and cold air can also affect airways, sinuses etc more in some people. If you think of where you can smell/breathe smoke outside when someone is smoking, there are circumstances where it can travel quite far.

This is one take on it: www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/evidence-shows-covid-spread-outdoors-091345974.html

There is a strong seasonality to coronaviruses (look at the graphs particularly, scrolling down: only 9 per cent of the year's cases came between late Summer and December but then there's a familiar steep spike): academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/1/9/5815743
To me that says that there are a few months when these things just thrive.

I would continue, but be very careful - for example, consider wearing more fitted and 'officially made masks, not just a face covering. Possibly glasses too (a bit of protection for the eyes as these are also mucus membranes).

Thank you for the replies, very helpful.
I’m only meeting a friend once or twice a week and it’s not for hours - too cold! Really enjoying the adult chats and being out of the house but obviously don’t want to put my health at risk. I consider myself fairly sensible!

@PrincessNutNuts

We know the new variant is more transmissible, but we don't know how.

It may well be more infectious outside than the strain we're used to.

We have no idea yet.

I wouldn't want my shielding mum and dad to risk it.

I read a news headline recently about a scientist saying we should be wearing masks outside. So maybe there is an increase in infection rates even going out for walks unless you SD.

No idea on the science but where I live it's permanently windy. I can't see how that doesn't help.

www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/masks-should-be-worn-outdoors-in-scotland-to-stop-spread-of-new-virus-strain-experts-say/ar-BB1ciwoS

Five studies in their analysis determined that less than 10% of reported global SARS-CoV-2 infections have occurred outdoors and that the odds of indoor transmission were 18.7 times higher in comparison to outdoor transmission.

But that was before the new mutant?

I think it’s low risk but can you honestly keep 2m distance on paths? I’ve found it better to meet and sit apart rather than try to walk and talk.

@Benjispruce2

I think it’s low risk but can you honestly keep 2m distance on paths? I’ve found it better to meet and sit apart rather than try to walk and talk.

Personally, I think the risks are still smaller. There is also the wind factor as someone said above. If you are waking side by side, less risk anway.

Nothing is risk free. Wearing masks would reduce what is already low risk.

I would think walking is safer than sitting as I would expect a slightly higher concentration of each others breath to accumulate if sitting down. Probably not much in it though.

@MotherExtraordinaire

Five studies in their analysis determined that less than 10% of reported global SARS-CoV-2 infections have occurred outdoors and that the odds of indoor transmission were 18.7 times higher in comparison to outdoor transmission.

Very interesting! Thank you.

They advise the CEV to minimise contacts, though do not ban you from meeting one other person outside, and caution that the total number of people you meet as low as possible.

Depending on the reason for you needing to shield, you might catch the disease more readily, and the new variant more readily again.

What is unlikely for someone in normal health with an earlier variant, might not be the same for you

You say you stay 2m if practical - I think it would be advisable to change where you walk to somewhere where you are always 2 metres as a minimum, and to consider because of your exceptional vulnerability wearing a good protective mask

Get a medical grade mask off of internet. They are available to buy now. Keep 3 metres apart and don't take mask off. Go down to 1 walk with a friend each week. Shower and change clothing immediately upon return. Wash outdoor clothing straight away. Gel hands whilst out every 30 mins. You parents want to protect you. You are so close to having vaccine. Can't you take as few more steps to alleviate their worry and stress.