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What does 70% more transmissable mean?

10 replies

BexR · 30/12/2020 19:47

I know it means more contagious but I dont understand the measure.

Does it mean it infects more people on average? That it causes infection despite precautions? Or something else?

I'm not a scientific or statistical person. Can you help me understand?

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BethHarmon · 30/12/2020 19:49

You don’t need to be exposed to as much of the virus to become infected.

Does it mean it infects more people on average? Yes
That it causes infection despite precautions? Yes

CoffeeRunner · 30/12/2020 19:49

I’d assumed it to mean literally, if a person infected with the origin strain was statistically likely to infect 1 other person, then a person with the new strain is likely to infect 1.7 people.

I could be wrong however.

BexR · 30/12/2020 19:53

Ah thank @BethHarmon.

So the original strain risk was reported to be quite low for things like surface transmission, whereas the new strain would probably infect you. Assuming it can survive on surfaces. How fucking depressing.

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Vitaminsss · 30/12/2020 19:54

Ah, I thought it meant that 2m distance might not be enough anymore

SirVixofVixHall · 30/12/2020 19:55

The new strain is much more effective at latching on to cells, so fewer people will be able to fight it off and not get infected. I assume it will infect at lower doses too, but that is just my assumption.

BexR · 30/12/2020 19:55

That's what I was puzzled by @CoffeeRunner. Whether it meant one person now infected 10 people rather than 3 (for example). Or if there is some kind of viral load value that is 70 percent bigger. Couldn't get my head around it.

I need a graphic!

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Manzanilla55 · 30/12/2020 20:08

I believe the figure is c 56 per cent or 55 (Doctor John Campbell). Do listen to his podcasts they are fab (you tube). He does a new podcast most days.

Bluntness100 · 30/12/2020 20:11

These answers are not quite right, it was explained at one of the press conferences

It means that on average one person will infect fifty six percent more people than the previous strain.

So (made up numbers) if one person would normally infect five people out of thirty they were in contact with, then they now infect eight in that thirty with the new virus.

Bluntness100 · 30/12/2020 20:12

Sorry new strain not new virus!

BexR · 30/12/2020 20:27

So presumably they would arrive at that figure based on contact tracing results from people with the new strain? Found it was a much higher figure.

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