Vaccine roll out speed

[User158340]

This is all up in the air at the moment, but this is the key now.

Half a million ready to go next week with Oxford which is a start but it will have to speed up a lot from that.

Half a million doses a week, including the 2nd jab people will get down the line, will see about 12 and a half million vaccinated in the whole of next year.

A million does a week, including the 2nd jab people will get down the line, will see about 25 million vaccinated in the whole of next year.

We know with Pfizer we're limited number wise due to logistical storage issues.

It needs to be at least a couple of million does of vaccines a week, or we'll see restrictions remain through next year.

A million does a week, including the 2nd jab people will get down the line, will see about 25 million vaccinated in the whole of next year

Does that include doubling vaccinatiin administering capacity by 12 weeks so that second jabs and new first ones can be given concurrently?

Or are we essentially looking at a repeating 24 week cycle, with system giving first jabs for 12 weeks then second for 12 weeks (no capacity to do new). Which means that every 24 weeks we have the same people fully vaccinated, just longer waits for part 2.

MIL received hers day before yesterday in a football stadium no less! Apparently was pretty efficient.

I’m sure I read that the goal was to ramp up to 2m per week quite quickly. Also that restrictions will start to be lifted long before we get anywhere near the whole adult population - once the most vulnerable are protected and things ease up on the NHS life begins to move in the right direction. I think spring is the aim on that?

Though of course you can never underestimate the ability of this government to fuck things up.

Jonathan Van-Tam at yesterday’s briefing specifically cautioned people against doing “back of a fag packet” calculations on how quickly the vaccine would be rolled out. The Oxford/ AZ vaccine is going to be significantly easier from a logistics point of view (because of the storage temperatures). I do actually trust JVT, he normally gives it to us pretty straight.

I think we just have to be patient on this one.

I read this morning that GP’s will be paid £10 per vaccine to vaccinate care home staff and residents, on top of the £12.50 payment for each vaccine already, so presume they will prioritise them. That’s got to take up the 530,000 doses. I agree I presumed more was ready to be dispatched.

Yeah it’ll take ages. How many AstraZeneca vaccines are available altogether? Half a mil won’t go far 😭

restrictions will start to be lifted long before we get anywhere near the whole adult population - once the most vulnerable are protected and things ease up on the NHS life begins to move in the right direction

Yes I absolutely agree with this. I can’t imagine the aim is to vaccinate the whole population, or certainly not for some time. They aren’t going to wait for the say 20-50years age group to get vaccinated - life will be pretty much back to normal by then. I suspect many of us will carry on with new behaviours like masks and social distancing.

They also have not said how frequently the vaccinations will be needed i.e whether it will be annual like the flu vaccination or even more frequent. Do we know how long immunity lasts?. By the time they have vaccinated all the elderly and vulnerable it may be time to give them their next years shot and the under 50s will not have a chance to get vaccinated.