[quote Motorina]**@KharaDH
I used a figure from here for the "case fatality rate": ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid?country=~GBR
That is, the probability of dying if you catch the disease, so not the same thing as the figure you have, which is (I think, if I did the same as you) " the absolute risk of catching and dying COVID-19 over a 90-day period based on data from the first peak of the pandemic"
You're confusing case fatality rate and infection fatality rate.
Infection fatality rate is the probability of dying if you catch the disease.
Case fatality rate is the probability of dying if you are diagnosed with the disease.
Given not all infections are detected/diagnosed then the case fatality rate is always higher than the infection fatality rate. How much higher depends on how many cases are missed.
The CFR you're using is from Italy in early march. It was much higher than the IFR because you basically only got diagnosed if you were ill enough to be hospitalised.
This in itself puts your calculation off, probably by one order of magnitude if not more.
However, all of this is irrelevant. The government have declared that schools are safe. There is little an individual head teacher can do to over-ride that. So @Khara's choices are to carry on working, quit, go off sick, or take annual/unpaid leave if allowed.[/quote]
Hi Motorina
I take your point about "Case fatality rate" vs "Infection fatality rate", that is an error in the calculation. An order of magnitude difference is still 1 in 20,000 chance of death, which is still not acceptable.
"However, all of this is irrelevant. The government have declared that schools are safe."
That does not magically make it safe.
I very strongly believe she should take this up with the Health and Safety Executive. It may have no effect, but it is better than meekly accepting the government pronouncements.