Indie sage covid update

[Fortherosesjoni70]

Please watch

Informative of current situation. Please share.

I made some notes (might be faster to skim read and check out interesting bits after?)

ICU number of presentations increasing against a background of sustained increases

Concern about wellbeing of ICU staff.

Concern about pressures from regular and also covid services.

Can we wait for the cavalry (vaccine) to come? No (Prof Deenan Pillay)

Covid has produced many hundreds of variants, including the new one with high transmissability.

Some mutations sit in the part of the virus targeted by vaccines.

Some mutations affect response to monoclonal antibodies and plasma therapy.

We should expect ongoing mutation if there is high transmission.

This is an argument for lockdown at the moment, for which Indie Sage are arguing.

Vacine roll out - great news. But we are doing 50k/ day. But Matt Hancock is talking about increasing this 6 fold. It will take till June to give to 22m people and till the end of the year for universal roll out. Anthony Costello thinks that there are major logistical issues in this, especially looking at issues in hospitals.

We need Test and Trace and Isolation to work properly as this is less economically damaging. Especially as there will be further outbreaks through the year - Anthony Costello. David King agreed - we can't take our foot off the pedal.

Christina Pagel - we don't know how many people may have continued with their original plans and also whether the new variant was spread through the UK.

Robert Peston asked re closure of schools. David King is calling for a lockdown quickly.

Susan Michie- they are calling for schools to be made safe. Proper planning and investment. Schools should stay open for some children, including those who can't work at home, vulnerable/ key workers. But online teaching should be available. UK wide.

Free masks, digital access, sanitisation stations. Recruit retired teachers to teach online.

Asking for partnership between SLTs/ governing bodies/ government/ unions/ parents/ agencies dealing with disadvantaged children

Christina Pagel - need to get it under control in England as this affects all the devolved nations

Tier 4 measures are not enough.

Transmission within schools - if new variant is more transmissable, it affects children as well as other people. December 0.2- 0.5 contributed by schools to R, before new variant taken into account.

Deenan Pillay - ONS data shows increase in youngest age group (as opposed to secondary school). New variant is making a qualitative difference and increasing the younger age range, and children may then transmit to teachers and parents, so we should err on the side of caution in this respect.

No signs of slow down on Kings College tracker app. We need to get cases to go down. Isolation and support for this is crucial.

Junior doctor Sonia just off front line night shift, bless her. Spending shifts trying to closely monitor patients on highest flow O2 and CPAP and swap patients over. This is not normally how we do medicine in the UK. They don't have space, covid wards overflowing into their resus department. It is winter, very difficult to keep non covid patients safe and separate from covid ones.

A lot of staff off isolating or sick "dropping like flies", maybe 25% anecdotally.

Pfizer vaccine- protection seen at 11 days after the first dose.

Lockdown will take 2 weeks to help this situation. How can we buffer this. All the other hospitals are full so diversions aren't working.

Sub dean of ICU college, mutual aid works if there is capacity to absorb increases, but national increases in bed usage make it difficult to absorb these.

Also covid patients stay longer in ICU (12 days rather than 5) also contributing to rapid rise in pressure on services.

DP- Nightgale Hospitals are being dismantled. ICU vice dean - greatest resource is our staff. Need trained ICU nurses and doctors and have low staff numbers compared to othe countries.

Question -How to make schools safe?

Susan Michie unused buildings

Retired teachers for online

DP - one dose not altogether sufficient but can be up to 12 months, can help wth the supply chain - to maximise potential impact on population

Acute medicine/ respiratory doctor - mutual aid

Equity of care across the uk, fears having patient that she can’t give lifesaving tx, but could last week

What do we do when we run out of resource, esp staff.

We have values and codes of practice, what happens when we can’t deliver care.

Thanks for summary

Thank you. Got distracted by Brexit debate and forget this was on.

Wow. Do we think govt will pay any attention.

I am still in awer they want to stop isolating close contacts in schools.

Amazing summary @herecomesthsun

Thankyou

Shameless bump

Placemarking

Great summary thanks!

We should expect ongoing mutation if there is high transmission

This is so important to understand and is a big reason ( amongst many others) why we can't just 'shield the vulnerable' and let everyone else take their chances. Letting it spread uncontrollably has so many problems but this is a major one to consider as well.

Thank you. Independent Sage’s emergency statement also gives details.

www.independentsage.org/29th-december-2020-emergency-statement-and-call-for-immediate-national-lockdown/

Quotes from statement:

“Failure to implement a circuit breaker, recommended by SAGE and Independent SAGE at the end of September, resulted in a delayed a lockdown until November. As a result, a new variant of Covid-19 (B117), since shown to be more transmissible, was given the opportunity to spread widely, particularly in the East, South East and South Wales. It also meant that England entered December with a high number of cases, despite lockdown, and a high number of people in hospital.”

“Delayed and tentative decision making will result in the deaths of tens of thousands more people. Modellers from the SAGE modelling subgroup estimate that even under national Tier 4, another 100,000 people could die before the end of June 2021. In that scenario, hundreds of thousands others would go on to suffer long term effects from Covid-19 and the NHS would be brought to its knees. The government needs to act now to prevent this catastrophe.”

“Schools contribute to the increasing transmission (R rate). We all want staff and children in schools safely, but sadly that is not an option now for at least a month. The unprecedented crisis requires Government immediately provide digital access for all children, recruiting retired teachers and others to help provide excellent online teaching, enabling children who can’t work from home to attend school along with vulnerable and key worker children. The Government should use January to make schools safe, e.g. extra space from unused buildings to enable 2 metre distancing, free masks and encourage all to wear them, multiple sanitiser stations and support for improved ventilation. There should be an immediate Government taskforce, including teaching unions, local authorities, governing bodies and parents, to implement this plan.”

And thanks for summary!

Thanks. Fuck.

This just shows how low level the national press reporting is on Covid. People don’t realise how serious the situation has become. People are bleating for schools to be open. Sage want a full lockdown and schools closed so that’s what needs to happen right away.

And 2622 cases just in Scotland today. I'm really concerned!