Where can I find the mortality rate of Covid in the UK?

[Chicchicchicchiclana]

please?

Sorry if this is repetitive but I have the topic hidden and haven't read many of the threads. But I would love to know.

Back in April I posted this thread link and as an average punter, who doesn't pore over every bit of CV news but who isn't totally disengaged either, I still feel none the wiser.

What I am really interested in is how many people in the UK have had the virus? if infection rates keep climbing as they are now, how long before 70% of the population have had it? how will the vaccination programme affect the figures?

At some point the number of infections will be so high that they have to go down again because more people will have been infected than not?

When do people think that will be, combined with the reduction in infections attributable to the vaccine?

2x 3 second Googles.

Population of U.K. is around 68 million
Around 2.4m have tested positive to date.

Titsoot - that's just tested positive. What about all the people who had it in the early months when there were no tests? What about all the people who have had it without any symptoms (I've seen this estimated as 1 in 3 in some places, 20% of cases in other place)s? Even now there will be asymptomatic people who are not getting tests.

Your quick google does not answer my question at all.

Also, my thread title was about mortality rates.

Is it still thought to be 1% in the UK when averaged out across the age groups?

I was wondering this today OP. Over 2 million confirmed cases. I wonder how many altogether when you factor in untested people and asymptomatic

Worldometer

Imperial College did a study suggesting it is just over 1% in the UK.

IFR is something like half that in the developing world, because vulnerable people tend to die much younger, and they have a lower average age of population, so their populations are less vulnerable to this.

The mortality rate is 0.3% OP.

How many people died yesterday and how many people tested positive 29 days ago? I guess that's the crudest way of trying to get a handle on what we're up against.

0.3% vs just over 1%.

Quite a range there.

Travelling Tabby should be able to answer all of your questions. It’s updated daily and easy to read.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/

COVID-19 deaths: Infection fatality ratio is about 1% says... report

The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.

These are the findings of a new report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team.

The report reveals that:

In high income countries, the estimated overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) is 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).

In low-income countries, the estimated overall IFR is 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).

Risk of death from COVID-19 doubles for approximately every eight years of ageing.

Age-specific IFRs increased from 0.1% and below for individuals under 40 years to greater than 5% among individuals over 80 years

@Chicchicchicchiclana

Titsoot - that's just tested positive. What about all the people who had it in the early months when there were no tests? What about all the people who have had it without any symptoms (I've seen this estimated as 1 in 3 in some places, 20% of cases in other place)s? Even now there will be asymptomatic people who are not getting tests.

Your quick google does not answer my question at all.

Pay me and I’ll do it better. £1k an hour?

(Or maybe you could do your own research.......)

Lack of early testing and asymptomatic people who aren't tested means it will be difficult to calculate an accurate mortality rate. If we use the total number of positive tests and the number of people who die within 28 days of a positive test then by my rough calculation, mortality is 2.9%. This is an over estimation because of the reasons given previously and it will also be affected by which "number of deaths" figure you use.

I see someone has given a more reliable and comprehensive answer.

That contradicts your earlier posts saying you wanted to include non-symptomatics in the denominator.

There are country specific numbers here, but I think the UK values tend to be old ones so quite high.

"Pay me and I’ll do it better. £1k an hour?

(Or maybe you could do your own research.......)"

Think you are missing the point of Mumsnet Titsoot. I have OBVIOUSLY tried to find an answer to my question via Google with little success, so I thought I would ask MN if anyone in the field actually knew. If you don't, there's no need for you to reply.