What is the actual rate of infections?

[Yellownotblue]

Current headlines and articles systematically state that it is “thought the infection rate was much higher in the Spring”, up to 100,000 a day, but wasn’t all captured back then because there was no testing capacity.

Given the number of people in hospitals, what makes us think that the infection rate isn’t just as high now? There were 40,000 positive cases reported today. Not everyone with symptoms is getting tested - I’m sure a lot are seeing it as a cold and carrying on as normal, possibly because they can’t afford the time off work. And then there’s the 30% asymptomatic cases which are unlikely to be tested.

Am I wrong in thinking the actual number of infections is probably around 100,000/day now? I note that the ONS previously reported their estimated infection rate, but they didn’t include that as a figure in the latest survey (24/12).

I’ve been wondering for a bit what % is covid & what % is your common cold which can make you test positive for covid if you’ve got a coronavirus strain.

I think you are probably right OP

@Bubblemonkey

I’ve been wondering for a bit what % is covid & what % is your common cold which can make you test positive for covid if you’ve got a coronavirus strain.

That’s not true. Common cold will not give you a positive diagnostic test result for COVID.

www.thejournal.ie/can-a-cold-or-flu-give-positive-test-for-covid-19-5155807-Jul2020/

I think it’s very hard to tell, as a lot of people without symptoms are also getting tested, as well as folks wit very mild symptoms.

The death rate right now is much lower still v the amount of hospitalised people. Which indicates to me either they know how to treat it better, or it’s less fatal. Of course the death rate could still increase to the levels we saw in the late spring, due to the time lag.

I think the whole thing right now lacks transparency, for the simple reason they are comparing apples and pears. The testing and treatment in April was very different to what it is now.

However I think people are more scared this time, not the drama llamas screaming stay in, but normally pragmatic people are more concerned, snd I think it’s the lack of transparency and understanding of what’s occurring that’s doing it.

They are assuming that the infection rates were higher given the number of deaths ans admissions with symptomatic patients. Difficult to know

That’s not true. Common cold will not give you a positive diagnostic test result for COVID.

It’s not the anti body test op, it’s the fast fifteen min Covid test I think, which can test positive for other respiratory diseases.

I keep hearing about people who are "never ill" but are currently "in bed with a temperature and a cough, completely off their food because they can't taste anything - but it's not THAT though" even though they haven't been tested.

I'm beginning to think the human race doesn't deserve to survive this pandemic to be quite frank.

@Bluntness100, lateral flow tests return hardly any false positives (99.68% accuracy for positives). The issue with lateral flow tests is that they return lot of false negatives. So no, a common cold will not give a positive test, whether PCR or lateral flow.

fullfact.org/health/lateral-flow-test/