Could new variant be connected to the November lockdown?

[Elephant4]

Was it November? I think it was. It's so difficult to remember with all the changes. But it came just after half term.

I've read somewhere (cannot remember where!) that the new variant kicked off because Covid 1 couldn't survive with us all locked down. As a result Covid 2 (new variant - that's currently spreading fast) took over and became more successful.

This makes sense to me. Does anyone with a science background know if it is true?

If that was the case - it suggests to me that Lockdowns infact to more harm than good.

So you can't remember when lockdown #2 was, or where you got your "information" from as you how the disease mutated from variant 1 to variant 2, but you declare lockdowns as being useless?

OK.

Viruses mutate, that’s perfectly normal, your theory makes no sense to me

Every time someone is infected there is a small chance the virus will mutate into a new variant. The new variant and the November lockdown happened at the same time because they were both caused by the virus getting out of control.
If we'd been lock-downed earlier when the numbers were still almost in control we could have prevented the mutation, and the less people that have the virus the slower it spreads (exponential).

No

1. The new variant has existed since at least September.

1. Viruses aren't intelligent - they're not thinking up ways to bypass our immune systems (despite what a stupid BBC reporter said on the 10 O'Clock News a couple of weeks ago). The changes/mutations are random. Some changes won't result in a perceptible difference; some might make the virus less effective; and some might make it more effective, which is what we now have with the SE England and South African variants. But the virus isn't deliberately plotting against us.

No if school had been shut it could have remained only a small %.
Or if like every single other country almost the teachers and kids had masks.
R did go below 1 with schools open. But not for long enough to bring it down enough for xmas shopping and xmas.

Other countries the transmission is less child to child.
Ours is like a big snowball getting bigger or a wave.
We will have a lot more kids with long term issues.

A variant that spreads better in children would always have had a strong selective advantage compared with variants that don't. All the lockdown really did was reduce the amount of the old strain which increased the relative proportion of the new strain. Maybe without lockdown there'd be a tiny amount less of the new strain due to people being protected by recently having the old strain but that would be countered by having more of the old strain.

Well considering they found the new mutation in September it is very unlikely don't you think?

I don't think you need a science background to know that you theory isn't correct. Viruses mutate all the time but not in response to regional political timetables

Incorrect.

There wasn't a lockdown before the SA or Nigeria variants appeared.

It's coincidence. Variants appear, it's what viruses do.

Write in letters of fire that timing is no indication of causation.

@QueenStromba

A variant that spreads better in children would always have had a strong selective advantage compared with variants that don't. All the lockdown really did was reduce the amount of the old strain which increased the relative proportion of the new strain. Maybe without lockdown there'd be a tiny amount less of the new strain due to people being protected by recently having the old strain but that would be countered by having more of the old strain.

Yes.

The virus is not an intelligent life form, its only purpose is to propagate in order to survive.

With every new infection is the possibility of mutation. However (and I'm no scientist) its perhaps probable that if the virus struggles to find new hosts its driven to mutate in order to survive. The best mutation is going to be a mutation which allows for greater transmission. This is based on Darwin and evolution where over generations species adapt. If the new variant can propagate better it will be selected, by virtue of the simple fact it infects more people.

I wonder too if people become immune, and less possible hosts does this also drive the virus to mutate? What conditions lead to the mutation that creates better transmission but less serious illness? Is covid as contagious as the common cold or less so?

If the first much stricter lockdown didn't get rid of Covid 1, it makes no sense to think that the November one would have done the trick. You would also have to account for the fact that other countries have had stricter lockdowns without the same effect. This is simply the virus acting in the way viruses normally act.