New strain, just how much more transmissible is it?

[MegCleary]

Before the chat was of 15mins within two metres of someone who had it.

Is it less time now, do masks mitigate?

On the COVID messenger email there were 93 cases newly diagnosed in our council area on the 21/12. Way up on the 30-40 we were on. Went to Lidl today very nervous being around people.

Bump

Anyone....

This may make you feel much better around the risk of asymptomatic spread . Backs up what the who were saying previously but is being ignored

www.lifesitenews.com/news/asymptomatic-transmission-of-covid-19-didnt-occur-at-all-study-of-10-million-finds

That article is bollocks, based on conflating 'asymptomatic ' with 'presymptomatic'. Which is the reason the WHO had to backpedal. Because they immediately realised their report was being used to justify conspiracy bollocks such as this.

Presymptomatic transmission of an extremely transmissible virus can justify lockdown at certain points in this pandemic.
The new variant is far more transmissible and children MAY (not confirmed) transmit more like adults despite showing few symptoms (and crucially, young children may not be able to describe symptoms).

Sorry OP I cant answer your question on exactly how transmissible, I think the exact answer will be unknown for a while (but following for more knowledgeable people)

Just compelled to jump in to counter the 'no asymptomatic transmission' nonsense.

Agree on the presymptomatic transmission and that is common with many virus’s including chicken pox which can have a devastating effect on pregnant woman and also the vulnerable as I have seen first hand . But would like to see facts on asymptomatic transmission too .

I don't think anyone knows those hard facts yet. Anything you read about it will be speculation not based on good quality observations.

Thanks for replying, I agree that spread definite without symptoms and will be more patient with regard to how much more transmissible it is. I feel with out schools closing and tier 4 everywhere it will be hard to get numbers back down.

This is a good article around testing to find asymptomatic cases and the importance of prioritising where there are symptoms

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851

Nerdy girl, thanks for the link. We definitely need to be transparent about what evidence does and doesn't exist. And make sure we clarify that asymptomatic isn't the same as presymptomatic. I have seen that lifesite news link so many times today to argue against any measures to slow virus spread (maybe I need new FB friends!)

But if we haven't even got that information about the original variants, what are the chances of having it about the new variant anytime soon? We can't even answer the OP's question about the chances of transmission for a given time/distance of contact. Although OP with latest estimates saying 50% more transmissible I think when this info is available it isn't going to be hugely reassuring.

And yes, I agree that a shit hot test track and trace system would have made a big difference. Here is Wales our track and trace was far better than England's though, and we are up shit creek here. Testing wasn't very rapid though....