Excess deaths in the next few years

[User158340]

I'm not a lockdown sceptic. In fact it was Boris's failure to act in March and September until after it was too late that put us into this mess. And then to put the South East into tier 2 straight from the most half arsed of lockdowns the other week, compounded it. Had we not locked down there would have been many more deaths and many more long term sick and the hospitals would have collapsed.

Even so, we're likely to see an excess death toll approaching six figures this year and it'd surely be a lot higher had it not been for all the restrictions.

However, I do wonder about the excess deaths in the coming years as a result of the lockdowns. The vaccines should be a god send and see the death rate plummet from probably some time in February or March, maybe aided by January restrictions. I look at some of my elderly relatives though and they've slowed down a lot this year and some are looking frail. You do worry how much life expectancy is reduced perhaps significantly in many as a result of so many being shut away this year.

It's essentially we open up as soon as we can and look after our elderly citizens to resume a more normal life once they've been vaccinated. I just hope the damage isn't permanent, the same for people who are still suffering the effects of the virus itself.

I agree op

I feel better older people will have life expectancy shortened anyway through lack of exercise and social contact.

But what's the alternative??

@whenwillthemadnessend

I agree op

I feel better older people will have life expectancy shortened anyway through lack of exercise and social contact.

But what's the alternative??

It is what it is. Just need to hope for normality fairly soon after vaccines and once the worst of winter is over.

I agree about the impact OP.

I worry though that opening up too soon risks new variants developing and getting round the vaccine. Hurrying it could be a similar mistake to last time but with worse consequences.

Interesting point. My sisters inlaws have gone from being healthy and active to frail and using sticks to walk. They are early 70s. My friend who's a nurse told me that the most shocking realisation for her was how quickly people can deteriorate once they have a knock or fall.

It's like we'll need a nationwide rehabilitation programme once this is over.

It's not just the elderly at risk. The NHS is still failing huge numbers of people with other health conditions such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes etc. Even dentistry - teeth problems can lead to heart problems. My OH has cancer and the NHS basically abandoned him in March mid-treatment, which only restarted in July and has now stopped again. I've not had my usual 6 monthly diabetic checks nor my annual diabetic eye test. OH is waiting for an urgent scan to check the progression of his cancer - asked for 3 months ago, but keeps getting cancelled on the morning of each appt and then it's a 3-4 week wait for the next appt. In lots of areas, the NHS has already collapsed.