What do you think? Are schools going to be closed?

[mamamia2020]

We've just returned to the UK to live, my youngest is due to start his new school on 5th January. Big change, new country, brand new town. We're in a Tier 3 area. I know that it's all speculation but what do you think? I've been gearing my son up for his new school now thinking about adding the caveat that it might be delayed. I do hope whatever the decision it isn't left until the last minute...

www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/crunch-meeting-held-whether-reopen-19525748?ref=BNTMedia&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0nIDo3bQOuMbpRfY9MiPun9272DuWDmthepLXabmNC8tnAgPsNPiuH7N4

Guardian now reporting keeping schools open will require 'trade offs'

I think schools in Wales will extend online schooling, possibly until the end of Jan. Rates, especially in the south, are appalling but are going down slowly.

@onedayinthefuture

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If indeed it is a very serious situation, schools close for a winter holiday. ALL time lost to be made up in the summer, there are enough weeks to do so.

But schools will not be closing for a winter holiday. Learning will move to online, teachers will be teaching (albeit in a different way) just as hard, if not even harder, so future holidays will remain as they are.

Before all declaring schools being open will kill us all, shall we wait to see if numbers drop this week now schools have been shut for over 10 days particularly in tier 4 where we cant mix outside of school/work.

If schools are as key to keeping numbers down as some on here are certain, from today there will be significantly fewer confirmed cases of covid 19 in tier 4 areas.

If the numbers don't drop, then its not schools that are the problem. (Although I do wonder if less people will bother testing if they are still off school/work for another week and stuck at home anyway.)

@MargosKaftan but won't some Christmas mixing have to be taken into account too?

Not in tier 4 in London and South east - it was announced on 19th that Christmas was cancelled. We've not even been allowed to meet up outside.

But even then, if the problem is people mixing outside of school /what they are allowed in their tier, closing schools won't fix that.

Xmas mixing was allowed in areas that only moved to Tier 4 on Boxing Day.

Well yes, that could be factored in those areas. But London and large parts of the south east should give a good clue if closing schools is the big factor of not as they weren't allowed to mix.

Plus is we are saying outside of school mixing is the big transmitter, then why close schools in areas that aren't tier 4?

Well no because in tier 4 children have been mixing. A new play park has opened in the park behind my house and it's been full of children and their parents over Christmas. Just before Christmas I saw groups of teenagers congregating in the town centre.

"Plus is we are saying outside of school mixing is the big transmitter, then why close schools in areas that aren't tier 4?"

Because the two go hand-in-hand. When schools are open, people see it as a green light to do other things, like sleepovers and playdates. They go down to the local playground and their kids play with those from other schools, and touch all the same equipment. Parents stand around the playgrounds chatting at quite close quarters.
Crowds of teenagers are seen out on the streets, but it's hard to know if they're socialising or on their way home from school.
And also, it normalises things. People forget, and let their guard slip.
They think, well the schools are open so we might as well ..... (insert activity of your choice).
And numbers rocket.

"A new play park has opened in the park behind my house and it's been full of children and their parents over Christmas."

Yeah. Dh and I couldn't get a turn on the fab seesaw near us recently. Bloody kids on it!

Maybe soft plays etc should close first. I find it madness that even in tier 2 they are open.

If the numbers don't drop, then its not schools that are the problem.

That’s a fallacy though isn’t it. It’s not about how much numbers drop rather by how much extra they would have climbed.

@Rubyrubyrubyred agree! I would like to see these places shut. Mixing absolutely needs to be limited to schools only!

"Mixing absolutely needs to be limited to schools only!"

No!! Have you not SEEN the infection rates in school students in London and the South East. Even worse than up north a few months back and that was bad enough (even though the government appeared to ignore it).

I mean if they insist on keeping schools open.

Yes and no margo, I would expect Xmas day and Xmas period mixing to have a toll.

@Glitterynails

I mean if they insist on keeping schools open.

Ah, I see, OK.

@MargosKaftan

Before all declaring schools being open will kill us all, shall we wait to see if numbers drop this week now schools have been shut for over 10 days particularly in tier 4 where we cant mix outside of school/work.

If schools are as key to keeping numbers down as some on here are certain, from today there will be significantly fewer confirmed cases of covid 19 in tier 4 areas.

If the numbers don't drop, then its not schools that are the problem. (Although I do wonder if less people will bother testing if they are still off school/work for another week and stuck at home anyway.)

But @MargosKaftan there’s already been a graph showing that drop. Reduced case numbers in school age children and the age group covering their parents (mostly). @RuleWithAWoodenFoot posted it a while back. The evidence is clear. Plus if schools aren’t fuelling the spread we need a massive rethink of everything else, because it means that it is not, in fact, Ricky to be unmasked in a poorly ventilated room with lots of people from different households all talking loudly. Hooray! Open the theatres! Doesn’t seem very likely to be true though, does it?

@CallmeAngelGabriel

Absolutely - DC’ friends are saying it’s the same deal if schools are opening why shouldn’t they mix and meet, as they reason it’s the same as going to school.

Half assed measures don’t work - and numbers won’t reflect schools closing due to people mixing at Christmas.

There's been no discussion re special schools.

They vary massively in cohorts of pupils and age range. You get 3-11, 5-11, 3-16, 3-19. MLD, SLd PmLd and complex learning which mixes all types of need.

So if primaries open what happens in mix age schools? What happened when you have to consider most of the pupils won't tolerate testing and many won't tolerate masks either. These are all classed as vulnerable children so should be in school. Also many could been educated via online platforms due to the nature of their needs and many have already missed out on months and months of therapy due to distancing and risk assessments. The NHS risk assessments are sooooooooo much tighter than DfE ones that even the theorists that have started to come in are in all but a hazmat suit and cannot go near staff or pupils in general and if they do for 5 minutes only whilst in full PPE.

These are often the families that need school the most but I can't help thinking the risks are just as great and it's a tough call.

@itsgettingweird special schools have been told they will be absolutely last to close even beyond primary schools. I doubt they will

Out of curiosity what are other European countries planning for after the Christmas break? I know Austria have delayed but haven't heard of any others?

Over 41 000 cases today. You would seriously need to be mad to consider opening schools with numbers like that.

Netherlands and Sweden are delaying restart. fairly sure Germany is too. Greek schools are closed.