Euromomo

[SRYnegative]

I'd like someone to explain why they think the virus is still a huge problem, after the initial pandemic.

www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
is the link to european death rates

Here's a link to Independent SAGE

www.independentsage.org/

We are still in a pandemic with hundreds of deaths daily; if you want to understand the science Indie SAGE can explain a lot about it.

IHappy Christmas.

The euromomo data includes several countries that had a good enough pandemic response that they managed to avoid having any excess deaths which makes the average look smaller - this would not have been the case if they had just pretended that covid wasn't a problem. Tey yellow band at the end shows incomplete data - this will increase on later releases. If you look carefully, the spike in deaths around new year is normally at least mostly in January - if you compare December with previous email Decembers you should be able to see that excess deaths are running a lot higher than normal.

@herecomestheSon

Here's a link to Independent SAGE

www.independentsage.org/

We are still in a pandemic with hundreds of deaths daily; if you want to understand the science Indie SAGE can explain a lot about it.

IHappy Christmas.

I do understand the science, and I have a PhD in diagnostic immunology. Many people with similar qualifications to myself agree with me, many don't, that's how science is, sorry to disappoint you.

Science and politics are getting dangerously enmeshed today: how very dare that advisor tell folk to unpack their suitcase! Know your your remit!

... Because, as your linked graph shows, the deaths have been higher than "substantial increase" level nearly all year.

@QueenStromba

The euromomo data includes several countries that had a good enough pandemic response that they managed to avoid having any excess deaths which makes the average look smaller - this would not have been the case if they had just pretended that covid wasn't a problem. Tey yellow band at the end shows incomplete data - this will increase on later releases. If you look carefully, the spike in deaths around new year is normally at least mostly in January - if you compare December with previous email Decembers you should be able to see that excess deaths are running a lot higher than normal.

The yellow data is "corrected for delay in registration" not "incomplete", you should maybe have "looked [more] carefully".

The euromomo data includes several countries that had a good enough pandemic response that..

If you look carefully, you will see that the graphs for England and Scotland are similarly convincing against your proposition.

@2020out

... Because, as your linked graph shows, the deaths have been higher than "substantial increase" level nearly all year.

In all fairness, though, I did say, "...why they think the virus is still a huge problem, after the initial pandemic."

As the linked graph shows, the deaths have been similar since then to previous years.

England and Scotland data here.

I don't think we're looking at the same graph. For the final quarter of this year, the European graph shows a substantial increase in the number of deaths. They call it substantial for a reason and that is a prolonged period to be dealing with a substantial increase.

As a scientist I would hope you would look at at all data and not focus on "deaths"
The problem is the people getting sick for long periods of time taking up hospital beds.

Infection levels in staff which means we cannot open to full capacity

Maybe try looking outside of your narrow death viewpoint.

But then I haven't got a PhD so what would I know.

@2020out

I don't think we're looking at the same graph. For the final quarter of this year, the European graph shows a substantial increase in the number of deaths. They call it substantial for a reason and that is a prolonged period to be dealing with a substantial increase.

Yes, the point is, that the rates have a seasonality about which months are traditionally substantially higher or lower:. If you look at Uk data, or euro data, the present seasonal respiratory viruses do not seem very different in their effects to eg 2018

just to remind people, i am not disputing a first wave epidemic

i dont remember all this lofdown business in 2018, i remember articles about peple sleeping in corridors of hospitals though, party as it coincided with my orthopaedic surgery getting cancelled thrice

sorry about punctuation, doing one fingertyping

... because your graph does not show the beds available / taken up by covid patients. I

It's about saving out "health care infrastructure" .

@Greysparkles

As a scientist I would hope you would look at at all data and not focus on "deaths" The problem is the people getting sick for long periods of time taking up hospital beds.

Infection levels in staff which means we cannot open to full capacity

Maybe try looking outside of your narrow death viewpoint.

But then I haven't got a PhD so what would I know.

As a scientist, I tend to look at all data, although I pay particular attention to death rates above the normal for the time of year. At the moment I see no cause for the outlandish concern in the old media platforms.

Therefore, I note the fact that many NHS staff are absent on account of having to isolate rather than on account of disease symptoms: this is not normal.

I was trained to look outside of a narrow death view, as morbidity is a crucial concern, especially these days.

I am gobsmacked by the sarky remarks re PhD: I would not disparage another profession like this.

I also have 12 years research experience in diagnostic immunology, but...

@Ylvamoon

... because your graph does not show the beds available / taken up by covid patients. I

It's about saving out "health care infrastructure" .

Ah, all now becomes clear: because the government doesn't provide enough NHS beds for a typical winter flu e.g. 2018, we need to lock the hell down. Got it crystal clear: nothing to do with a pandemic second wave - as I thought/said.

Nobody has provided me with a satisfactory explanation to my original question yet. Maybe you can't cope with being wrong. This is what I fear the government is suffering from.

Might I suggest you take it up with them then?

What do you think the data would look like if we weren't living with constant restrictions?

@TuxedoPanther

Might I suggest you take it up with them then?

I thought it might be more productive to start here.

I'd like someone to explain why they think the virus is still a huge problem, after the initial pandemic

Nobody has provided me with a satisfactory explanation to my original question yet

Your link is about "pooled number of deaths" ...
I think my answer is more than satisfactory. It's about transmission rate and the seriousness of the illness = pressure on health care provision.
Scientifically we are in the 2nd wave, the most severe one. But I guess you already know that.
And before you say I swallow any BS provided by goverments, I am a firm believer, that this pandemic has to run it's course. Whatever we do has little effect unless it's quick, efficient mass vaccination. And that is logistical impossible.

@whatswithtodaytoday

What do you think the data would look like if we weren't living with constant restrictions?

Similar, without the job losses, business closures and semi-educated kids.