Bizarre new figures

[Jocasta2018]

Not sure if I've copied this link across properly from the BBC News App Live news but apparently more than 2% of Londoners currently have Covid.

I'm not a scientist but does an affected 2% of an urban population make a pandemic? I was expecting at least double figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55435558?nsmchannel=social&nsssource=twitter&nscampaign=bbcclive&nslinkname=5fe47ff15afdc802c37f9ad7%26Main%20UK%20and%20global%20headlines%20so%20far%20today%262020-12-24T12%3A23%3A27.931Z&nssfee=0&pinnedposttlocator=urn:asset:c5d739fe-fbeb-48cf-9ea0-d127dd2482e5&pinnedposttassetid=5fe47ff15afdc802c37f9ad7&pinneddpost_type=share

🙄

I'm not a scientist

Really?

@Porcupineintherough

That's 120,000 people if there are 6 million living in London (I think there's more). If 1% of them need hospitalisation that's that's 1200 people. That feels like a lot, no?

Maybe leave this to the epidemiologists, but I'm sure they'd welcome your input

Not sure, ask the WHO as I they confirmed a pandemic a couple of months ago. Worth double checking?

*think

As the @TheBitchOfTheVicar says. And the hospitalisation rate in over 80s is ~20%, so you can see how the numbers could rise, esp if everyone visits grandparents over Christmas.

My aunt's favourite saying is

'Thick as pig shit'

9.3 m live in London. 2% is 186000, the population of the uk is 66m, you the math for that

Added to the millions of others across the word = pandemic

Understand?

Google "exponential growth"

Oh OP you are right. Call number 10 and let them know they got it wrong. it’s not a pandemic just a bit crap

If a disease had just affected 2% of a city's population and not spread, it wouldn't be a pandemic.

However, the disease has spread to every continent on the planet and killed hundreds of thousands worldwide.

That's a pandemic.

I thought pandemic meant it was widespread. Given that it’s pretty much everywhere, that’s sufficiently “pan” isn’t it?

2% now have it, rather than 2% have had it? That's a large figure op and I'm no scientist either.

OP you really have left yourself open to this haven't you ? either naive or optimist sorry i can't work out which one.

Across England 1 in 85 people is thought to be infected according to ONS figures - that sounds like a lot to me!

Oh OP!

It’s ICU beds that’s the issue though isn’t it.

9millionish Londoners, so 2% is 180,000

60ish London hospitals, probably being generous as some of those are eye specialist or children specialist.

My local London hospital is a three hospital trust that has about 50 ICU beds across the trust.

60 / 3 = 20 trusts of about 50 beds

= 1,000 ICU beds in all of London. Obviously not exact but gives you a ball park figure.

Sounds like a lot of beds until you look back at that 180,000 Covid infected Londoners... you don’t have many beds to stretch for the potential amount of people who might need them. Especially as it won’t just be out of those 180,000 who need the ICU beds... there’ll be plenty of people with other conditions.

I’m in London and I’m thoroughly fed up of Tier 4 already but I do get why we need to be in it to keep people out of ICU.

Why are people so rude on Mumsnet? The OP was asking a question!

Pandemic simply means a contagious/infectious disease that has spread across a large region- usually more than one continent or worldwide.

It doesn’t have to be very deadly to still be a pandemic. So while this isn’t the Black Death which killed 50% to 65% of the population, it’s still a pandemic just a much less deadly one.

@Redbrickwall

Why are people so rude on Mumsnet? The OP was asking a question!

I can answer why some are a bit tetchy about posts like the ops. It's because there are a tonne of faux disingenuous threads started with an obvious agenda which seeks to spread conspiracy theories down playing the pandemic. It's relatively rare that threads like this are just asking a question and people get irritated with that.

It appears that op isn't one of those, but it's not uncommon.

@Redbrickwall

Why are people so rude on Mumsnet? The OP was asking a question!

I mean to be fair the OP is suggesting the entire world has got it wrong about there being an active pandemic, without putting much thought into it.

2% is 1 in 50, which is pretty fucking high for active infections. For the rest of UK it’s estimated to be 1/82 which is also terrifying...