Please help me understand how switching tiers works

[BarryWhiteIsMyBrother]

I just learnt that our council, currently in tier 2, will move to tier 4 on Boxing Day. Can anyone please explain to me why? Why on Boxing Day and not last week or yesterday? What happens to the virus on that day? Why not move up to tier 3? I'm trying to listen and process all the information we are being bombarded with regarding the virus and the regulations but I'm really flummoxed by this tier 2 - tier 4 jump on a specific date.

My guess it's business related rather than health. And people pleasing... Since tiers are blurred on Christmas Day.

Well I think probably any areas which are moving really should be moving up today but they want to give people a bit of notice especially with it being Xmas day in 2 days.

I assume the jump is up to tier 4 because people have looked at the rates and decided that’s what’s needed. Sorry, it sucks. I’m in tier 3 and am amazed we haven’t been out in tier 4.

The date thing has been arbitrary all year. They just a pluck a date. When we came out of lockdown it was on a certain day but no logical reason why it couldn’t be the day they announced it. Similarly when we went into local lockdown it was always a couple days later. Which was stupid. They are doing Boxing Day to allow for Christmas cos they are idiots.

Those jumping from tier 2 to 4 are in areas that have seen huge growth & whose hospitals are struggling. Tier 2 wasn’t really working with the old strain. It certainly isn’t now!

Boxing day to give people notice I suppose - turkeys etc have already been bought for Christmas day now and it would not go down well to ruin people's already rearranged christmasses at less than 2 days notice
Tier 2 where they are bordering tier 4 areas' figures have been rising sharply in recent days. That evidence wasn't necessarily there just a few days ago. Much better to go to tier 4 then go to tier 3 and hope for the best.
I'm in a tier 3 area and would prefer to go into tier 4 now tbh than later and for longer.

If I were responsible for making these decisions I would place any tier 2 adjacent to a tier 4 into tier 4. This would stop the tier hoppers.

But like you, I can't understand their thinking. They have lacked judgement, and their decisions seem to lack logic. So who knows! The tiers were said to be chosen by the data on cases and hospital capacity, but in this instance its more likely blind panic. That's not to say the government shouldn't act proactively, just that up until now they haven't.

In this instance I assume they are delaying the tier change to Boxing Day because moving you up to tier 4 before Christmas would mean you cant mix on that day.
Delaying the change until after Christmas Day means that;
A) People living in those areas about to move up a tier won’t be as likely to break the rules/they hope by keeping you ‘onside’ you’re more likely to comply with the rules after.
B) logic would say that by calling off Christmas mixing just two days before would see even more of a pile up in the supermarkets tomorrow than there was after they reduced the Christmas bubbles to 1 day if more people will suddenly be cooking for themselves on Christmas Day when they weren’t planning to.

It probably should be implemented from midnight tonight but I reckon they hope that they have scared some people in to submission now and others will follow after Christmas.

It's politics mostly. We are back to tier 3 but apparently Bath not so much, their current rate is higher than us, go figure. No cases in my town last week

It’s because they promised not to
Impact Christmas Day plans with too short a notice - if you want to switch sooner then no one is stopping you

But Xmas day plans can go ahead even in tier 4 can’t they? The same rules for people in tier 3 or 4 and I think 2.

So I’m not sure why they wait because I don’t think it would make any difference to peoples Xmas plans. London got put into tier 4 with only a few hours notice. It does seem silly to wait 2 days.

But Xmas day plans can go ahead even in tier 4 can’t they? The same rules for people in tier 3 or 4 and I think 2.

No, you can’t mix with anyone outside of your household on Christmas Day in tier 4. All of the of the other tiers you can mix with two other households on Christmas Day.

Oh sorry, I’m wrong. I thought Xmas day was exempt from tier rules but see it isn’t for tier 4.

Sorry, but it's so obtuse, all this "why is Coronavirus infectious on Boxing Day but not Christmas Day? Why can't I catch CV in the supermarket but I can at my mum's?"

It's about trying to strike a balance in order to allow people to be slightly less miserable, and a line has to be drawn. They've made this decision so as not to disrupt Christmas plans with just over 24 hours to go. Had it not been 23 December, I expect restrictions would have come in at midnight. It's also helpful for businesses to have a little notice in order to close down, and for people who are currently away to get back to their own homes.

We're going into Tier 4 too. It's because of the steeply growing rates of infections from one of the new variants.

Basically batten down the hatches, stay at home and Isolate from everyone except where absolutely necessary.

People have 24h to see others on one day. Well less really unless they set out at midnight on Christmas Eve. Means in theory everyone should be back in their own beds that night ready for Tier change at midnight. It encourages everyone stay closer to home Which is a good thing.

Nice to give a few days notice to retailers (eg., pubs) who have stock that would go bad if they couldn't sell it. Will reduce some of that collosal waste & lost income from all the keg beer that will go down the drains.

My area is going into tier 4 from tier 2. It's not just because the cases are growing fast, it's also because the hospitals are filling up. My local hospital now has twice as many patients as in the first peak and the next nearest hospital is full and diverting patients elsewhere.