Has the new variant evolved as a response to social distancing?

[SwanShaped]

Does anyone know if this is the case? I’m sure I read it ages ago (but can’t remember where) that this is what would happen?

Interesting hypothesis!

It kind of makes sense, I think.

In a way, possibly. It’s not as deliberate as ‘in response’ to anything though, it’s just simple evolution and survival of the fittest.

No, its a random mutation. As evil as this virus is (i have it just now, its no fun ) it is just a virus and has no evil mission other than to replicate itself. If it was intelligent we'd be fucked

That's not how evolution works.

Viruses have the chance to mutate every time they replicate (same as humans do). Any non-useful mutations will wane, any useful ones (being more catching) will multiply.

This works in our favour sometimes since viruses that are less lethal and have a longer incubation period are 'better'. The transmissibility is good for the virus only, unfortunately.

I can see if the only people mixing without masks and social distancing are children it would favour mutations that made it pass round children easier.

It would make sense in a way, but as cornettoninja said it would be due to selection, not 'as a response to'. In other words, this new strain already existed

Ok, I don’t think the virus is intelligent. I mean that it’s randomly mutated and become more contagious. And then the more contagious one will be the one to survive. Because social distancing will kill off the less contagious one.

That’s what I mean porcupine I got the wording wrong.

It looks directed, but isn't. That's why wording is important.

Same as cockroaches evolving to dislike certain foods. The ones not commonly used in bait. It's just that all the cockroaches with a sweet maxillae died.

Yes, I see how the wording is wrong now. I know how evolution works and that it’s all random mutations. It just makes me wonder what new variants there will be as we try to eradicate it.

It's random. Some viruses die out, some become endemic, some mutate and survive.

This one is pretty successful so I doubt it will die out regardless. How it mutates is random though.

It does indeed seem very successful. What I’ve been wondering is whether it will end up adapting to whatever conditions we throw at it.

@SwanShaped

Ok, I don’t think the virus is intelligent. I mean that it’s randomly mutated and become more contagious. And then the more contagious one will be the one to survive. Because social distancing will kill off the less contagious one.

I understand what you meant, but even without social distancing the more contagious variant would still spread faster than the less contagious one. It might take longer to become completely dominant over the less contagious strain (if that happens at all), but all that means is we'd have two strains circulating in large numbers rather than one.

Yeah I hadn’t thought about it like that. That it would be more contagious anyway regardless of social distancing. I’m just feeling really despondent today and like whatever we try there will always be a mutation that means it survives and spreads.

It's very likely the vaccine will work on the variation, so although Covid-19 could become endemic, if everyone is vaccinated it won't be a big concern in future. How often do you hear of people getting measles, for instance?

Thanks, you’re right about measles. And other viruses I guess. It does sound hopeful about the vaccine. Or that even if it doesn’t it’s pretty quick to make a new one that does work.

There are so many people to still infect there's no selective pressure for the virus to evolve in any particular way. It mutated this time because this virus slowly mutates constantly, not because there was pressure on the virus because of what people are doing to avoid getting it.

The genomics people are tracking hundreds or maybe thousands of variants, btw. Most of them aren't remarkable variants.

@SwanShaped

Ok, I don’t think the virus is intelligent. I mean that it’s randomly mutated and become more contagious. And then the more contagious one will be the one to survive. Because social distancing will kill off the less contagious one.

The more contagious one will take over purely because it transmits and therefore replicates faster whether social distancing is in place or not.

It’s logical that with no social distancing it would spread even faster, but that would be true of any mutation.