Are the numbers right?

[Masskerisation]

My DD was tested and confirmed COVID positive last week despite being very careful mask wearing etc.

She was called by someone to find who she had been in contact with etc . So 1 case accounted for BUT a few days later her partner has come down with exactly the same symptoms.

Unless he takes a test he is not on the radar, therefore one less on the numbers.
This is no big deal except this must be multiplied amongst thousands of households throughout the country.

I am now looking at the numbers and wondering if I should double them.

Does anyone else find this worrying?

Why would be not take a test?

I know what you mean OP, but on the other hand, we have lots of asymptomatic cases who take a test (for a good reason), test positive and are therefore included in the figures. I mean, if you think about any other illness, when would a completely asymptomatic case ever be included in the stats?

The numbers have been looked at all along in the UK with the asymptomatic and very mild cases in mind. There are projected numbers out there if you look (sorry I don’t have any links to hand) although the Zoe project, until recently, made pretty good estimates and predictions based on reported symptoms alone.

Especially given our very short list of testable symptoms (which is much longer in other countries) it has been long understood that the reported case numbers aren’t the complete picture.

I don't understand why he wouldn't take a test if he has symptoms?

The ONS survey does not rely on people with symptoms getting tested.

The trend of whether the numbers of positive cases is going up or down is more important that the actual numbers.

He doesn’t see the need as he is sure he has Coronavirus and doesn’t want to bother the NHS !

He should take a test to firstly, be sure, and secondly so his contacts can be traced.

@Masskerisation

He doesn’t see the need as he is sure he has Coronavirus and doesn’t want to bother the NHS !

Unless he’s been isolating, he’s potentially letting all his contacts go around spreading covid.

He has been isolating completely and has only 2 contacts outside and has notified them. Separate occasions.

No worries about spreading the disease, as even before DD was confirmed they both isolated just in case.

They are VERY conscientious and also concerned.

So conscientious he won’t get a test now he has symptoms? Even though that’s been the clear advice from the Nhs right from the beginning of the pandemic?
That makes no sense.

Hopefully there aren’t too many people who think being conscientious includes not taking a test.

And as above, the ONS data is based on regularly testing the same people whether or not they have symptoms. My friend’s DH gets tested twice a week since being contacted by them.

@Masskerisation if he’s got the tracing app then he really should be tested so it can alert anyone that he may have inadvertently been too close to. Also it may be that the two contacts he has had need isolation notes which they can only access through the app or track and trace.

I wouldn’t be able to isolate for ten days away from work without some sort of proof.

OP has made it clear that there is no issue with contacts. I can see his point about the test, given that it isn't necessary for contact tracing in his scenario, why are people so bothered about it?

I got a hard time for this on here with my own DC when I had CV and decided not to test them as they had been isolating for 2 weeks before my symptoms started so there were no implications for anyone else and testing wouldn't have changed anything. They had no contacts outside our household and were isolating anyway. I obviously made sure they isolated for the correct length of time after, in fact it meant they isolated longer than they need to. I really don't understand why it bothers people so much. I absolutely was not putting them through the horrible test when it changes nothing bar government data. These tests cost a lot of money to process, they shouldn't be used if not needed.

I suspect the 37,000 testing positive today is the tip of the iceberg.
If you take into consideration several know factors such as;
People not testing unless they have one or more of the classic symptoms (Fever, cough, loss of smell)
Many asymptomatic cases (thought to be up to 40% of postives tested)
People not wanting to test because they do not want to isolate, or can not afford to.
Children with atypical (not the three symptoms) symptoms attributed to colds, and other bugs
Children who are asymptomatic.
false negatives
People having cold symptoms that could be Covid, but could be quite possible to have both asymptomatic Covid and a cold, or that the cold symptoms are Covid.
Some people picking up the virus twice, not testing again

That is without the problems with the PCR testing not being reliable.

There are some weird anomalies for sure, with one partner having symptoms testing negative, whilst his wife or partner has no symptoms but test positive, people who have tested positive after 90 days, others who have never tested positive but had the classic symptoms and now have long covid, and the weirdest of all....... the PCR could be said to throw up quite random results especially when you consider just how many symptoms can be said to be associated with Covid, whilst not being acknowledged as being symptoms. No other disease has been treated, classified, or tested for, or diagnosed in this way. If I were a tin foil hat nut job I'd be having a field day.

Usually a disease would be classified and distinguished from another disease by its cluster of symptoms.

This is odd, because we haven't got a definitive list of possible symptoms and then looked at the virus, only then knowing what to look for on a PCR test. Instead we use the test to look for RNA or bits of virus (could be dead and inactive) and then individuals attribute every niggle to Covid.

I'm not a scientist, and I am struggling to really get a grip of what the issues are, but I'm cynical and from a purely logical position I believe there is something not right in a lot of what we are being told.