Infections are much higher than we think?

[Baullocks]

So, I know a few people who’ve tested positive -

My colleague and his wife had it so mild it was basically a cold but the wife insisted on getting checked.

A friend only got checked because her daughter was positive, all she had was a headache.

Then there are my daughters who’s symptoms are a runny nose and stomach pain, I only tested them as I had a weird hunch. I’ve since spoken to one of my youngests teachers (also a friend) who said she’s concerned as several children complained of stomach pain last week and loads had runny noses, you just wouldn’t think to test them.

Basically none of these warranted a test, none of them had any of the 3 main symptoms.

Having seen this first hand it’s nothing like what they’re saying, for my kids this has been a bad stomach bug, not a respiratory infection at all.

I can’t help thinking that there are thousands if not millions more with this in the uk and that the numbers are completely wrong.

They really need to change the testing requirements urgently to get a better idea of who is and isn’t infected, I just don’t think anyone’s bothering because they think it’s something else.

And no I’m not scare mongering I don’t care for all that rubbish, I’m just shocked how much the symptoms are veering from the guidelines.

This is known long time ago.
Most people with it have intestinal problems rather than respiratory.
If they really wanted to track the cases they would have added more symptoms to the list. A large number indeed!
It looks to me like they are only tracking the respiratory infections, as those pose risk of hospitalisation amd dead. So they only test for fever, short of breath, change to smell and taste.
In a way, I wonder if it is betterr that a higher number of us have been exposed and got some immunity.
I am waiting and hoping that the immunity studies come back with the answers. At the moment, it is not clear how our bodies are fighting the virus. Antibodies? T-Cells? A combo?

Teacher and mother here- yes, seemingly from what I’ve observed in school at work and in the school where my kids are, Covid presents quite differently in children. Gastric symptoms seem much more common in the under 16s.

@MushMonster

This is known long time ago. Most people with it have intestinal problems rather than respiratory. If they really wanted to track the cases they would have added more symptoms to the list. A large number indeed! It looks to me like they are only tracking the respiratory infections, as those pose risk of hospitalisation amd dead. So they only test for fever, short of breath, change to smell and taste. In a way, I wonder if it is betterr that a higher number of us have been exposed and got some immunity. I am waiting and hoping that the immunity studies come back with the answers. At the moment, it is not clear how our bodies are fighting the virus. Antibodies? T-Cells? A combo?

That’s a very good point, I suppose there’s no point in pointing out the headaches as they don’t lead to any sort of harm... the list would just be too long to put everything down. The only way around it would be to do mass testing. I suppose I’m frustrated as I’m a sitting duck at the moment, I have age on my side but also heart disease so I’m not thrilled at the prospect of waking up with it any day now. I wish they’d got the testing right from the start, they’ve had enough time.

@LassFromLeedsWithALustForLife

Teacher and mother here- yes, seemingly from what I’ve observed in school at work and in the school where my kids are, Covid presents quite differently in children. Gastric symptoms seem much more common in the under 16s.

Yes, if my two are anything to go by their main/only symptom is bad stomach pain. The government should ideally be warning parents to look out for this it seems to be a biggy.

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19.

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:

“The Nowcasting group at Cambridge have an established track record, report their methods and the underlying data.

“Their estimate of the number of new daily cases makes sobering reading 91, 000 (95 % CI, 69, 000 to 119, 000).

“There is no reason not to accept these as fairly robust estimates, even at the lower end, it would confirm that the virus is rapidly spreading in the UK. "
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-latest-covid-19-nowcast-and-forecast-by-the-mrc-biostatistics-unit-at-the-university-of-cambridge/

A resident in a sheltered housing scheme I'm involved with tested positive today after being admitted to hospital for a fall. She was asymptomatic. Call me daft but I never imagined that someone in their 90's would be asymptomatic - I thought it was more young people!

On BBC News they were talking about specific incidents such as

• US prison warden who visited each prisoner with COVID for less than a minute got infected
• Asian student who was sitting 6 metres away from 2 other patrons is a cafe and infected them both (in Asian)

I assume the BBC were talking about the existing strain, not the new strain?

sorry, the point the 1st was that it takes next to no time for someone to get affected and with the 2nd that the air conditioning is spreading the virus around

in Asia not Asian!

@PinkPiranha11

Did you not see this?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/everyone-was-drenched-in-the-virus-was-this-austrian-ski-resort-a-covid-19-ground-zero

Surely everyone already knew the number of people who have/had it is higher than the official figures? We've always known that many people are asymptomatic or have symptoms too mild to warrant a test.

Of course there are many times more people infected than we know about.

Have a look at the ZOE materials covid.joinzoe.com/

There's lots about the estimated 'real' level of infection and also loads about symptoms for different age groups, etc. It's very good.

91000 cases per day is a huge number.
I really wonder how many of us have been exposed to the virus, how many are immune now, and if immunity covers this new strains that are appearing.

It has also revealed a strain of puritanism among people who thought themselves tolerant liberals: because the virus thrives in social situations, nothing has enraged us more during lockdown than seeing people having fun in large numbers.

This seems apt for MN.

Currently ons have 1-2% of children as infected. Depending on age.
Which is why gov should have given then 2-3 weeks off at once during last term to break the spread. Insteax it just accelerates until immunity to some degree. Other areas didnt seem to go quite as high as kent. But then they didnt have the 1000 allowed inside and in person nativities etc etc. Plus the weather.
Yes they need to change the testing criteria.
Or say dc with d&v stay off for the 10d.
Tbh i think dc get d&v with cold sometimes normally as often the dc are sick but us adults dont get ill. one summer dc1 was vomitting and her GM endded up.in hospital with pneumonia the same day. Noone else si k and neither got what the other had. or i dont know maybe adults more likely in inhale stuff as more likely to wash hands.

Other countries are including sore throat etc etc so we cant compare our number to france etc. and ours will spread faster as all these out spreadiing it

There has been SO many threads recently about this. The most common symptoms at the mo appear to be headaches & mild cold like symptoms. Several friends have had these symptoms & so have we in the last couple weeks.

Strikes me as both concerning in terms of transmission but reassuring that it is pretty mild. Obviously anecdotal but I know 25+ people who’ve had it & none of them had any chest issues at all.. all young to be fair. But no cough or anything that would worry you in terms of needing hospital. A few including me have felt pretty rough but nothing laying in bed feeling miserable didn’t solve..

A lot of people have symptoms and get tested and are negative. So whilst I agree the rate will be considerably higher than the official figures there are still an awful lot of non covid illnesses causing these symptoms as well!

I agree with you OP.

I tested positive in July and had none of the symptoms they tell you to look out for.

I had a runny nose and swollen glands alongside a general feeling of malaise.

I only got tested on a hunch and I had to bend the truth to have a test sent out, I was asked if I had a temp, cough or lack/change of taste or smell. I had neither.

I was stunned when my result came back as positive.

We’ve had a letter sent via school from our local council asking parents to test their children who are showing cold like symptoms or just not themselves. Basically lists everything bar the three main things and to tick the box “council requested it”. Seems to have widened their approach here - north west.

If there are a lot more people infected than the official figures show, then the death rate percentage is even lower than we think so surely this is positive and a reason to stop grinding the country into ruin with these stop start lockdowns. To me it seems very reassuring that some people don't even know when they have it.

@CeibaTree

If there are a lot more people infected than the official figures show, then the death rate percentage is even lower than we think so surely this is positive and a reason to stop grinding the country into ruin with these stop start lockdowns. To me it seems very reassuring that some people don't even know when they have it.

The lockdowns aren't about the death rate as much as the hospitalisation rate.

Of course this is known because studies have been going on all the time with testing of all ages that have no symptoms. But you can’t constantly test 70 million people every week.

Like they said you have to treat every person you see as if they have it .

I read somewhere that only 1/3 of people will show symptoms anyway.
So if 2/3 are not asymptomatic (presumably not testing) and a small % of the symptomatic don't get tested (for whatever reason), I'm sure our case numbers are at least doubled.

@DobbyTheHouseElk

It’s got to be reassuring. If it’s so mild people don’t know they have it, it’s not something to fear.

If people are mask wearing and distancing it should spend less. Don’t they think a symptomatic people don’t transmit as much as previously thought?

I don’t think it’s reassuring at all. It means that many more people have it without realising and are going about their lives spreading it to potentially vulnerable people instead of self isolating for the required time. I think there should be a lot more antibody testing so that people know if they’ve had it and anyone who has any dubious symptoms should request a test to confirm if they have it or not so they can self isolate.

@Knickerthief1

A resident in a sheltered housing scheme I'm involved with tested positive today after being admitted to hospital for a fall. She was asymptomatic. Call me daft but I never imagined that someone in their 90's would be asymptomatic - I thought it was more young people!

This is actually really scary...a 90+yr old having the virus but no symptoms, living in sheltered housing. Imagine how many other residents in the same age group she may have been in contact with and infected, I doubt all of those would be so lucky. And imagine if she lived in a care home, how it would spread so easily there. Quite frightening imo.