NERVTAG minutes

[AcornAutumn]

Allegedly these are the minutes of the meeting that led to the Tier 4 decision

khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

What happened to evidence based medicine?

What happened to evidence based medicine

Huh? You want to disregard a scientific concern and wait for more evidence? Evidence takes time and I have no desire to be a lab rat thanks all the same.

This government would not and have not acted preemptively throughout this whole pandemic so let’s presume that this massive shift that is damaging politically and economically is justified and worth taking notice of.

It was waiting for more evidence - on the efficacy of masks, border closures, the banning of mass gatherings - that fucked us over in March. It's a fast moving pandemic. What do you expect?

There's never been a randomised control trial on the efficacy of parachutes. So let's just do away with them eh?

Re evidence

There are plenty of viruses out there that might kill us. I’ve not seen any get this level of attention before.

But I should have known what response I’d get here.

Can you elaborate?

That’s kind of the point, no one had seen this virus before.

What we do know is that we haven’t got the medical resources needed to cope with the rate it spreads.

We can be cautious or we can gamble. When you’re representing millions of people you don’t get to gamble their health.

Had = has

Hello Carl Heneghan.

@AcornAutumn

Re evidence

There are plenty of viruses out there that might kill us. I’ve not seen any get this level of attention before.

But I should have known what response I’d get here.

What other virus specifically do you think is so much of a threat to us in this country that it needs the same level of attention, or even a slightly lower level of attention?

Because I can’t think of anything in living memory which has seriously infected so many people, caused so many deaths and long term health issues.

Maybe because I've never known whole wards full of patients with the same illness in 25 years of nursing. How are hospitals supposed to cope when you have 20-30 patients on high flow oxygen or requiring cpap machines ? Last month we nearly ran out of oxygen, at the height of the pandemic we were rapidly running out of IV sedation and were having to supplement with oral benzos to put down ng tubes. Anecdotal but still relevant.

You are an idiot. Yes there are plenty of virus’s out there but not like this killing across the world, mutating as it is

As to evidence based medicine it’s not keeping up with this fast moving virus, and at least we seem to have learnt some lessons from March and lockdowned quicker ( which is what T4 is, a lockdown)

@AcornAutumn

Re evidence

There are plenty of viruses out there that might kill us. I’ve not seen any get this level of attention before.

But I should have known what response I’d get here.

Could you give one or two examples of other viruses that are presenting, spreading and killing in a similar way please. Globally of course.

I notice the same rush to put down any thought other than acceptance prevalent here.

What is happening to us? Why are we so afraid of questioning even if that questioning is incorrect?

Suppression by ridicule or emotion feeds conspiracy theories.

If Carl Heneghan is an example of "Evidence Based" thinking, can we just stick with old fashioned medical common sense and good judgement please? As he appears to be a right wing ghoul advocating for the armageddon?

@Emeeno1

I notice the same rush to put down any thought other than acceptance prevalent here.

What is happening to us? Why are we so afraid of questioning even if that questioning is incorrect?

Suppression by ridicule or emotion feeds conspiracy theories.

Well, herd immunity is a dangerous misunderstanding that is quite popular in very right wing circles? And it would be better for it not to be promoted maybe?

Maybe because I've never known whole wards full of patients with the same illness

This is a point that seems to fly over a lot of peoples heads. It doesn’t matter if it’s covid, appendicitis, norovirus or every pregnant woman suddenly needing a EMCS - its the numbers of people all needing this service at the same time.

Pandemics in our lifetimes (generally flus) have been largely dealt with at home and GP’s took the brunt. Covid needs more than a couple of paracetamol and a hot bath in a significant percentage of people who will be absolutely fine with a bit of support.

I hope you’re bearing up okay @Schonerlebnis

@Emeeno1

I notice the same rush to put down any thought other than acceptance prevalent here.

What is happening to us? Why are we so afraid of questioning even if that questioning is incorrect?

Suppression by ridicule or emotion feeds conspiracy theories.

My observation is that because right now it’s accompanied by a dangerous undertone that puts everyone at risk.

Anecdotal but I listen to LBC quite a lot (I’m aware it’s daily mail on the radio) but I’ve noticed that there are a lot of callers who identify with the tone of the station that the presenters are having to separate their views from because the rhetoric is going further than they intend and even they can’t align themselves with it, despite their extremely right leanings.

@Cornettoninja thanks ! Same to you

Why would we want dangerous nonsense to go unchallenged?

Any one is free to post nonsense about covid e.g it is just like flu, or can be cured with bleach etc.

Lots of people would then pile in to say, no that is dangerous garbage that could mislead people.

This is how discussion boards work. You are free to post your opinions, and if they defy common sense or scientific understanding, then other people are likely to post and disagree. Especially if the misunderstanding could lead to dangerous behaviour in a pandemic.

Hope that helps.

@Emeeno1 nobody's accepting everything that the government is saying.
And challenging is generally a good thing. Trouble is neither side really listens to what the other has to say or is prepared to change their minds. It's all become so emotive and polarised. It's been turned into a big conspiracy about government control, removing our civil liberties etc On the frontline it's just about trying to save lives, simple as that.

There is evidence, but it is not conclusive evidence. The scientists have had to decide what they can infer from the limited information available then the politicians have had to balance the various risks and make a decision. The fact that we are dealing with possibilities rather than proof doesn't render the whole thing unscientific, in my view.

And at the same time it is perfectly proper to question the reasoning of scientists and govt. Pushing people to explain and clarify should ultimately lead to better information and better decision-making.

@AcornAutumn

Re evidence

There are plenty of viruses out there that might kill us. I’ve not seen any get this level of attention before.

But I should have known what response I’d get here.

Yeah you should have stuck with youtube or maybe that David Icke forum. It still exists doesn't it?

This part is a little bit concerning:

"this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate
with comparable data sets."

@Emeeno1

I notice the same rush to put down any thought other than acceptance prevalent here.

What is happening to us? Why are we so afraid of questioning even if that questioning is incorrect?

Suppression by ridicule or emotion feeds conspiracy theories.

What feeds conspiracy theories is being too polite to say that the people pushing them are ignorant and/or delusional.

I spend a lot of time on youtube explaining to people why the earth can't be flat and why Niburu isn't really going to kill us in 72 hours. I often use evidence and logic, but really that's only helpful to other people reading.

The people pushing the conspiracy theory are not going to get talked out of it so there's a point to embarrassing them to make spreading dangerous nonsense less fun.

There's never been a randomised control trial on the efficacy of parachutes.
There actually has been one, and published too.
It was intended tongue in cheek, of course, to show how even with a perfect textbook experiment design when it comes to correlations you can end up with bizarre conclusions if your original premise is nonsensical when it comes to causation. The study is quite commonly referred to in bioinformatics / biostatistics programmes.

Want a link?

What happened to evidence based medicine?

This is evidence based medicine. Nothing is black and white in science. You can't prove something, only disprove it or suggest something is likely to be true. The minutes are couched in the cautious language of scientific papers.

It might read as being a bit wishy washy but translated to plain English, they are pretty damn sure the new variant is a lot easier to catch than previous variants.

I agree with @Backyard72 the bit about antigenic escape is concerning, although they do say there isn't enough data to conclude anything yet.

The Bonsall paper about the link between viral load and the N501Y mutation doesn't appear to be available yet. If anyone finds it, I'd be interested to read it.