The new strain was found in September

[User24689]

virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563

Someone sent me the above paper and I'm now so confused and tbh angry.

If we already had this information in September then
A) Can it really be that much of a big deal B) Why is Hancock saying he only found out about it last week
C) Why are they "cancelling Christmas" on the basis they didn't know this a month ago.

I am losing more and more faith in our government every day and it is scaring me now.

Why are they saying this is new? Are the rising cases not enough to bring in restrictions on their own? What is going on?

I'm in tier 4 and don't know whether I'm crying through anger or despair anymore.

The UK sequences 10% of its samples - this is one of the highest percentages in Europe - and finds lots of new strains all the time. Just because it first showed up in September (alongside lots of other strains) there wouldn’t have been enough data to alert anyone to its spread for a couple of months. There are strains that show up and then are never seen again.

If the media reported every single new strain this still would have been lost in the amount of data until it started spreading noticeably.

I don’t know, but the cynic in me would say it’s a great reason to have a u turn on Christmas while moving the blame for the U turn from incompetent government to nothing we can do it’s covid fault.

And the lorries stuck are now officially stuck due to covid, rathe than Brexit... so again you can’t really blame the government, it’s not our fault it covid.

I think it was sampled in September and identified in October. They first had evidence it might be causing the surge in Kent last Friday. The NERVTAG minutes cover that last point.

A number of strains were found in September... eg the Spanish strain.

They found it in September but it didn’t show the growth rate then, it was brand new. Now it’s likely to be the predominant strain and by the virtue of the fact it’s growth rate has been so quick they are estimating it is 70 percent more transmissible.

Thank you all. My anxiety is through the roof and the sense I can't trust any one in charge is worsening things! Appreciate the explanation.

mobile.twitter.com/SmallRedOne/status/1340796568157515779

See attached.

WHO did a good explanation today of the timeline and what was known when (to the best of their knowledge). Starts at about 48 minutes:

Most of the briefing was about the new UK variant, what is known and what we still need to find out.

Basically, the numbers in Kent were increasing rapidly even during the last lockdown. They investigated why this could be and noticed that a huge proportion of new infections were of this particular variant. They then looked back through their genome records and found that the earliest record of this variant was in September.

It's a bit like the sewage samples showing the virus was present in a country much earlier than previously reported. We only know this retrospectively because we've gone back to look for it.

If it was around since September - why has it only suddenly become super infectious? Would it not have ‘taken off‘ before now? That’s the bit I don’t understand?

I agree they did know about it in September, we are 3 months down the line now. How convenient that only now is it so much more infectious that Christmas is cancelled and our borders have grinded to a halt. How convenient just before brexit. Boris is holding these press conference, increasingly not answering the actual questions that are put to him. Compliance seems to be at an all time low. I just wonder how we get out of this it feels like nothing will be any better until Easter. Yes we have a vaccine but that in itself won’t return life to normal anytime soon. The Oxford vaccine may speed it up but who knows at this stage. We have been told so many things only for them to end up back tracking I don’t believe a word of it any more.

@MoirasRoses

If it was around since September - why has it only suddenly become super infectious? Would it not have ‘taken off‘ before now? That’s the bit I don’t understand?

You’d have thought so. Surely by the time they told us we could have Christmas bubbles they must have had some idea.

And the lorries stuck are now officially stuck due to covid, rathe than Brexit... so again you can’t really blame the government, it’s not our fault it covid.

Oooh, this is a very cynical view but it's a good point!

It would take a while to spread from small numbers to the point where it was noticeable.
So if the case numbers double every week...

2, 4, 8,16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024

That's 10 weeks lost in the background noise

Then you get to 2000, 4000, 8000.. and scientists start to wonder why the lockdown isn't reducing numbers in Kent

OK. The variant was discovered in September - there is ongoing genetic sequencing of the virus all the time, so variants being found all the time. Not all go on to be a threat in any way, in fact some mutations put the virus at a disadvantage and would simply die out. It takes time to know whether a variant is going to become more dominant. That's why it's only now being reported, as that variant is being found more and more often in infected people.

So, in September they knew this variant existed (along with dozens of others) but they did not know whether it posed a threat or not - only time would tell.

The cynic in me says they have been aware of the impact for a while and realising that they completely messed up with their Christmas plans, decided to announce it to scare the public into compliance. Apparently this new strain spreads through children and schools might actually be increasing the spread - well no fucking shit! Anyone who works in a school or reads nobelgiraffes threads on here has been aware of this for weeks! There’s no way the government did not know. Now is just a convenient time to make it public

@MoirasRoses

If it was around since September - why has it only suddenly become super infectious? Would it not have ‘taken off‘ before now? That’s the bit I don’t understand?

It's the nature of exponential growth - numbers can stay low for quite a long time and then suddenly turn large. In retrospect, it's quite clear though that the strain was present in London and the East of England since about mid November.

Makes perfect sense to me. First identified then, but the link with infection rates not discovered until more recently.

@TheHeathenOfSuburbia

It would take a while to spread from small numbers to the point where it was noticeable. So if the case numbers double every week...

2, 4, 8,16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024

That's 10 weeks lost in the background noise

Then you get to 2000, 4000, 8000.. and scientists start to wonder why the lockdown isn't reducing numbers in Kent

Hooray for common sense!

Yes stop being cynical and face up to how viruses work

It was not found in September. The September samples were tested in late October. They then conducted tests on how transmissable the variant is before reporting back to the Govt last Friday afternoon.

Matt Hancock explained this on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday. Don't make up rubbish OP. Facts not fiction.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/uk-government-blamed-covid-19-mutation-occur

Article: How a string of failures by the British government helped Covid-19 to mutate
I don't know if you can read this, it was available a few minutes ago but might be paid content now

Article is by a professor and former WHO director, not guardian staff.

In that Guardian article one needs to replace Britain with Western Europe, Russia and the Americas to make it plausible. Completely myopic view.

I thought it was widely known that they knew about this in September?

Really funny how it just suddenly surged 1 week before Christmas.