Will Kent need more measures than tier 4 to get this under control?

[YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable]

I’ve been keeping an eye on the stats and have been wondering for a few weeks what’s up with Kent. It was relatively under control compared to other areas, but numbers rose during lockdown 2 and have never stopped since. Despite being in tier 3, cases have continued rising. I couldn’t work out exactly why this was and assumed it was either general lack of compliance to the rules or spread in schools. It now seems it was also this spready variant.

Matt Hancock said today they had been watching Kent with concern because lockdown 2 didn’t bring down the stats and so it was not effective enough against the new type.

So, does this mean in Kent we could see further measures to tier 4 (which is pretty much lockdown 2 where cases continued rising)? More strict restrictions, maybe schools being online for a while? Or am I totally missing something. Maybe it was a compliance issue, and now they’ve scared the bejeezers out of everyone they will stay home in fear.

People in Medway just want this over.

Swale (Sittingbourne) is quite industrial maybe it’s cos the area has a lot of manual workers who cannot work from home.

Does it really matter where it came from when it's already prevalent?
Yes it is important to pinpoint and learn from the Kent Spread - but meanwhile:

Everyone I know in the SE who has tested positive recently has been school related.

It will sweep through and then be done to a degree.

Watching it crossing Kent, it has been pretty unstoppable and I have no doubt that the new (frankly draconian) measures will make little difference.

Come the new year it will have passed across to other areas of the UK.

I live in Kent and work in one of the worst affected hospitals on the front line.

I feel like I'm living some weird double life.

I go to work and it's chaos to levels I have never seen. I just typed out a few examples of what is going on in our hospitals at the moment due to the strain of covid but have deleted in fear of daily fail reprinting/backlash if work identify me/being told I'm scaremongering. But let's just say it's bad, very bad, for basically anyone needing hospital care at the moment.

And then I drive through the local high street back from work and people are out in their big groups with no social distancing, no face masks, and seemingly not a care in the world.

I can't quite make these realities add up.

I will add I am not at Medway Hospital, but they are so screwed they are sending patients out to all other hospitals in Kent now. And further afield, when Kent literally can't take any more. Surrey got some this week.

@holibobs1

I live in Kent and work in one of the worst affected hospitals on the front line.

I feel like I'm living some weird double life.

I go to work and it's chaos to levels I have never seen. I just typed out a few examples of what is going on in our hospitals at the moment due to the strain of covid but have deleted in fear of daily fail reprinting/backlash if work identify me/being told I'm scaremongering. But let's just say it's bad, very bad, for basically anyone needing hospital care at the moment.

And then I drive through the local high street back from work and people are out in their big groups with no social distancing, no face masks, and seemingly not a care in the world.

I can't quite make these realities add up.

I understand you deleting those details but as a resident of Kent I feel they need to be heard. I understand the science around the new strain but at the same time it’s easy to think we’ve brought this on ourselves as the level of compliance with SD rules in my town (East Kent) is very low.

I’ve sorry for toll it must be taking on you all. Thank you for what you’re doing. I wish I could offer more than that.

This was discussed on the news earlier. It's thought to be from Europe, and this is thought to be why infection has suddenly exploded in other European countries, with the variance having been identified here due to additional sequencing capacity.

I've seen a few articles saying the UK is a leader in this scientific field and so why the significance of this strain was first noticed and published here. It has been found across the UK and so might be all over Europes hot spots too ATM, but only just becoming apparent. I guess in the next few days we will know more.

My mum works at the hospital in Thanet and she told me that they are now getting Covid cases from Medway because they no longer have any beds. She is not in ITU and says that PPE is basically a mask, plastic apron and gloves and that is even when they are around covid patients.

She also said that staff find it practically impossible to socially distance in some places as there just isn't the room. They are also told to simply got on with things if they raise covid concerns.

Its awful. She had covid badly (not hospitalised though) earlier in the year and just doesn't want to go to work as she doesn't feel protected. Has no choice though as she can't financially risk unpaid leave.

@holibobs1 that’s worrying, I’m so sorry. I agree it would be important to know what’s actually going on though. It might shock people into following the rules.

Those saying it’s because of deprived areas, I agree it has been initially pocketed I’m these areas, but, especially in the past couple of weeks, it’s sky rocketed across Kent including those affluent areas. I just hope tier 4 helps, because if we have to go further and we’re on a school holiday atm I’m not sure much more we can do.

It does seem like a lot of transmission in schools so let’s just hope, if schools are the key, that we don’t spend all the holidays getting it under control to then have the same situ all over again when schools go back (but from an already high incidence).

@peapotter

From what I remember R was about 0.6 during the first lockdown. If this new variant adds 0.4 to it (and its early days to know but that is the first estimate) then that would mean even with lockdown like April cases still wouldn’t drop!

I’m praying that the vaccine works quickly, and that part of the increase was poor compliance during the November lockdown.

That’s a really interesting (and concerning) way to look at it.

Kent and the South East generally had become complacent. Numbers were very low and things were getting back to normal. They suddenly they weren't.

It does seem, that with the transmission of this strain being easier, the usual measures aren't effective.

What difference does it make whether it mutated in Kent or was imported? The OP asked if stricter lockdown seems necessary. The answer, I suspect, is Yes.

@Wtfdidwedo

Wales' cases are higher than Kent's and have been for several weeks now. Our ICU beds are full in two health boards and all appointments have been cancelled unless life threatening. Fascinating the coverage this "new strain" is getting now that the south east is affected now.

It does seem that way. Cases in Wales just kept going up despite their firebreak which was earlier than our 2nd lockdown.

@DailyPotion

Kent and the South East generally had become complacent. Numbers were very low and things were getting back to normal. They suddenly they weren't.

It does seem, that with the transmission of this strain being easier, the usual measures aren't effective.

This seems reasonable. I'm in rural East anglia and no cases at DH's school until the last week. No-one I know, knew of anyone by name who had covid since March. In my DDs giant 6th form college only 8 cases in the early part of the term. It's easy to see how people would become complacent - plus, only a tiny percentage of the county would have some immunity. It must have been the same in the hitherto unaffected South East.

Will a stricter lockdown work though? If the R number increase is correct and the R number the first lockdown brought it down too I don’t think there is much more we can do much manage it to as low a level as we can and ride it out and hope that vaccine and natural immunity work

@ferretface

Everyone I know in the SE who has tested positive recently has been school related.

This. I'm also in Kent, with 2 DC at different secondary schools. Both were SI because of cases at their schools, and then both their classes closed to F2F because of the rapid rise. So they've both been out of school for 2-3 weeks.

1000s of new houses being built in the SE. Yet no comparable increase in NHS facilities including hospitals. Our hospitals were never going to cope - every winter we have a lack of beds. Surprisingly there is also very high deprivation particularly in Swale, areas of Maidstone and Medway. Also massive warehouse food distribution centres where workers are unable to SD and self isolate. Add to that the ports and euro tunnel with 1000s of lorries coming in everyday, stopping at motorway service stations and you have to wonder why any of us live here.

@Quartz2208

Will a stricter lockdown work though? If the R number increase is correct and the R number the first lockdown brought it down too I don’t think there is much more we can do much manage it to as low a level as we can and ride it out and hope that vaccine and natural immunity work

Medway’s numbers climbed during the Nov lockdown, but from the 1-7 Dec they stabilised at around 600/100,000. Then they started going up again after that. I believe that the Nov lockdown eventually started to have an affect and I do wonder what would have happened if we’d have stayed locked down for another couple of weeks. We’re now on about 830/100,000.

@YuleAreBeingUnREASTIEable @Em777 I agree there should be much more transparency about the state of things (but it shouldn't have to come from an anonymous person on Mumsnet!) Many people would still need to come to hospital but lots of people with minor injuries or concerns might reconsider and go to a minor injuries unit or pharmacist. There is no 'trying to stay away' like in the first wave, despite the pressures being so much worse this time.

I'm not going to go into details for the reasons I gave before, but wish my fellow Kent resisidentns well and hope we can all stay safe.

As someone with experience of the ‘care’ at Medway hospital in non covid times I would say that if you get transferred somewhere else because they are full you are one of the lucky ones .