New strain in South Africa should we be worried?

[lala2221]

Just seen that South Africa have reported a new strain which is appearing to affect young adults more. Am i over worrying? Could this be the same as the new strain here? Just feel there is something that the government aren’t telling us this weekend.

Sounds like a different mutation.

Why would you worry more than you do already? Because it’s affecting young adults more? Why is that more worrying than it affecting other age groups? Why would worrying help?

It just feels like things are getting a bit out of control

In what way?

Cases are really rising, for Boris to change things yesterday they must be very concerned, he wouldn’t have done that if he didn’t have to and the rest of Europe are going into strict lockdowns.

That’s not new. It’s been happening since February.

This is why we need vaccines, and social distancing with masks until they are provided. There will be new successful strains; generally the most transmissible will win, which may not be the most lethal and may have other differences. The majority of the world are testing only a tiny fraction of cases, you won't know about many of the new strains. It's both inevitable and no worse right now than yesterday. Keep distance, wear a mask, aim for fresh air and take your vitamin D.

There will be new successful strains; generally the most transmissible will win

Win? Successful? It’s a virus- what is it winning?

It wins the chance to reproduce again, that's just what a virus does.

oh ok.

1. Tranmissiable isn't a word. It's contagious

2. Viruses nearly always mutate to get more contagious but less deadly. In fact that's literally how pandemics end.

I’m in South Africa. And from what we’ve been told is that it is the same strain as the UK strain.
We have also been told the same thing that it appears to be no more deadly but more easily transferable.
With regards to the ‘young people’ part, it seems as though our 2nd wave is being blamed on end of year parties known as Rage. (Think American teenagers on spring break). These parties went ahead and within a week there were thousands of youngsters back in their home towns with Covid. So yes, virus seems to be more prevalent in young people but possibly due to non-compliance with protocols.

Happy to answer any other South African Covid questions!!!

@OldOrMaybeNotThatOld

I’m in South Africa. And from what we’ve been told is that it is the same strain as the UK strain. We have also been told the same thing that it appears to be no more deadly but more easily transferable. With regards to the ‘young people’ part, it seems as though our 2nd wave is being blamed on end of year parties known as Rage. (Think American teenagers on spring break). These parties went ahead and within a week there were thousands of youngsters back in their home towns with Covid. So yes, virus seems to be more prevalent in young people but possibly due to non-compliance with protocols.

Happy to answer any other South African Covid questions!!!

Thanks for update i read a bit about it and apparently some similarities with UK one..

It is not the same variant as the one in the U.K.

It does share an important mutation: N501Y

All good!

And found some comfort in the precious posters explanation of how a pandemic ends!

Seems to make sense that a virus would mutate and get less and less deadly somehow. I am no doctor though so probably just looking for a silver lining in all this mess.

@Grobagsforever

1) Tranmissiable isn't a word. It's contagious

2. Viruses nearly always mutate to get more contagious but less deadly. In fact that's literally how pandemics end.

This.

Killing your host isn’t generally good survival strategy.

@Grobagsforever

Transmissible is a word

@Grobagsforever

1) Tranmissiable isn't a word. It's contagious

2. Viruses nearly always mutate to get more contagious but less deadly. In fact that's literally how pandemics end.

1) transmissable is a word and the correct scientific term. Contagious diseases are diseases that are easily transmissible on contact eg TB is not contagious but it is transmissible.

2. The trade off hypothesis that viruses evolve to become less virulent is over simplistic. Spanish flu did end because the virus became less virulent. Epidemics and pandemics end for other reasons too eg herd immunity (natural or vaccine), interventions to prevent transmission, even extinction.

I think our new UK strain has already made it to other countries. Now they are all starting to close borders to people from the UK

Mrex,

Good advice expect its nigh on impossible to social distance in class with children and teens... So if this new strain does infect dc, what then?

@OldOrMaybeNotThatOld do you get a feeling that flights from South Africa to the UK will be stopped?

We have family in South Africa at the moment (against Foreign Advice advice, breaking self-isolation rules to go there, but that’s another story)and wonder if they’ll get stuck there for a while or should be trying to get back ASAP.

@dementedpixie - the "UK strain" may not have originated in the UK at all; I haven't seen see latest stats but still by end of summer the UK was doing a far larger number of genome tests than any other country. If you genome test, you will find new strains; if you rarely genome test (hi Italy!) then you won't and bingo, not "your" strain. That said, closing borders to holidaymakers is a reasonable step to take.

@TheRubyRedshoes - all strains can infect DC in the right environment (unventilated, heavy viral loads, close contact etc), it was just slightly harder for the previous strains to do so; thought to be linked to ACE2 receptors. In general children may also have transmitted less due to recovering faster; theoretically a teacher should transmit more than a child anyway because they speak more.
With new strains; if more children can be infected (increasing the risk of onward infection) OR they get very unwell OR they generally transmit more - well then there needs to be a considered view taken by Sage over what to advise government; online learning, closure even for primaries / nurseries, ramp up testing the Oxford child vaccines, reconsider vaccine schedules... Or maybe this variant doesn't mean kids get infected more, it was all idiots rule-breaking etc. I would guess it's being researched pretty swiftly to answer many of those questions.

I’m appreciating the apparently knowledgeable posters about mutations. This made me laugh though theoretically a teacher should transmit more than a child anyway because they speak more
That’s heavily theoretical if you’ve ever been in a secondary classroom!

My in laws live in South Africa, currently locked down in their retirement complex because there’s a bit of a Covid outbreak within the complex. We are supposed to be going out there for Fil’s 90th Birthday in April but no idea whether it will be possible or not.
Just feel so sorry for Dh worrying about them all the time and not knowing when - or even if, he will see them again.

I guess it feels that way @cardibach, but the research talked about length of time from a specific person and direction. A teacher won't have one child out of 15/20/25/30 kids talking for even 10 minutes of an hour-long lesson while facing all the others, but the teacher's introduction, close-down, specific question responses etc will easily go over 10 minutes and will usually be facing the room while they all face the teacher.
Kids and teenagers seem more likely to infect each other by the traditional routes of proximity or loud noise; at a sleepover, in a car, play date shouting excitedly indoors, hugging and kissing, sharing food/ drink, etc. Similar to adults, louder ones might be more likely to be superspreaders.