Please clear this up for me - vaccine

[KarenMarlow3]

Sorry if this has been asked before. Does 60% protection mean that only 60% of people vaccinated will be protected, and the other 40% won't? Or does it mean that the vaccine will give each vaccinated person up to 60% protection - i.e. they might still get it, but won't become as ill.

The former.

Thanks, I was afraid it might be.

It is worth noting that although people caught covid after the Oxford vaccine, none of them became ill enough to require hospital treatment.

The most effective flu vaccine is around 50% effective. 60% is still very good

My interpretation is that 60% protection means that where (for example) 1% of people in the Placebo group were infected, only 0.4% of the people in the Vaccine group were infected, which is in line with what DecemberStar said.

However, I think it is possible, though totally unproven for the time being, the the vaccine also gives some protection against serious illness to the other 40%. it has been written in the media headlines that nobody in the Vaccine group for the Oxford vaccine (the one with only about 60% effectiveness in the larger vaccine trial arm) ended up seriously ill or in hospital. That could just mean that so few people were infected within the Vaccine group, that by pure chance, none of them became seriously ill. However, it could also mean that some or even many of those who were vaccinated but still became ill were helped by the vaccine in that they only got mild illness instead of severe illness. My interpretation of the headlines is that on the latter point, we just don’t know yet, but I believe that as large numbers of people to start to get the Pfizer vaccine (Which actually is supposed to have over 90% effectiveness), we will find out a lot more about that one in the coming months. We will then learn much more about the Oxford vaccine in the months after it gets approved (if it gets approved).

I do also know that if the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine were approved and then offered to me tomorrow but I had to decide “yes” or “no” immediately, then I would definitely get it. The data are far from perfect, but the science of how vaccines work is sufficiently robust that I believe it would meaningfully lower my risk of becoming seriously ill, should I contract COVID, and I also believe that the risk from the vaccine itself would be much lower than the risk from the virus.
If the Pfizer vaccine or Moderna vaccine were offered, then I would agree even more enthusiastically. But I don’t expect there to be enough doses for me to be offered either of those before probably 2022.

Finally it is critically important to watch for news on whether a vaccinated person can still acquire and pass on an infection asymptomatically. If they can, then getting vaccinated must not be taken as a license to stop with the social distancing measures, less the vaccinated person become a modern-day Typhoid Mary.

Agreed* @YankeeDad*. To pretty much all you have written.

It's the potential sterilising effect of [any of/each of] the vaccine[s] which is now of the most interest to me.

From a public health point of view I suggest that is as important to the programme's success as any reduction of symptom severity/likelihood of infection within the vaccinated population.

As the oxford vaccine hasn’t yet been approved, by default the most vulnerable are getting the more effective Pfizer vaccine. It won’t really matter if the rest of us get the Oxford one!

A family member, healthy and aged 25, has been doing the Oxford trials.
But aren't all those being tested fit and young? So even if they weren't seriously ill, this might be because of their strong health.

Those who will be offered the Oxford vaccine will not all be young, fit and strong.

I don’t think so @middleager. I could be wrong but I recall them specifically looking for a more diverse pool of candidates at various points.

@middleager

A family member, healthy and aged 25, has been doing the Oxford trials. But aren't all those being tested fit and young? So even if they weren't seriously ill, this might be because of their strong health.

Those who will be offered the Oxford vaccine will not all be young, fit and strong.

They have expanded the trials to include a range of ages, conditions and ethnicities. This was a little later, so the results haven't been published yet. Presumably with increasing infection rates in the UK and US, they will be getting close to their endpoints soon.

@middleager

A family member, healthy and aged 25, has been doing the Oxford trials. But aren't all those being tested fit and young? So even if they weren't seriously ill, this might be because of their strong health.

Those who will be offered the Oxford vaccine will not all be young, fit and strong.

I took part in a different study. The took volunteers ages 18-80. The only ppl not allowed were pregnant women and ppl who were immunocompromised. Hopefully it will get approved in February.

@CheesePleaseLoueese
Regarding the "potential sterilising effect", is there really any such thing? The only thing I have read about fertility is that the vaccines' effects on fertility has not been evaluated, but I have not seen any reason to believe that there actually is any such effect.

My assumption has been that the vaccine trials were not designed to evaluate that theoretical risk, because such a design would have slowed down the development, making all of the at-risk people wait longer for the vaccine, and hence costing lives. At the moment it is also my understanding that in general, there is no scientific or evidentiary basis to be concerned that vaccines might cause sterility.

There is probably also no evidence that fertility cannot be damaged by taking a shower in the morning, or eating broccoli, or watching scary movies, but that does not mean that fertility is likely to be damaged by any of those things, and I would not take the absence of evidence to be a sign that there is a need to be concerned.

However, I am genuinely curious on the topic and would be interested to see any evidence that you may have found showing actual reasons to be actively concerned about vaccines and fertility.

For the Pfizer vaccine..

In global phase 3 trials involving more than 43,000 people, 170 were observed to have contracted coronavirus, out of which 162 had been given a placebo, the companies said. Just eight of those who had received two shots of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine developed the disease and only one became seriously ill, while nine of the placebo group developed severe Covid-19.

When we talk about a sterilising effect in vaccines we're talking about it preventing the presence of viruses (like sterilising a baby bottle) nothing to do with fertility.

"potential sterilising effect" isn't talking about fertility.. It means the ability of the vaccine to prevent the pathogen from causing infection at all, as opposed to just lessening the effects of it

I think they mean sterilising immunity.... nothing to do with fertility

@YankeeDad isn’t ‘sterilising’ used in context with vaccines about sterilising the virus itself not general fertility.

I presumed a previous poster was talking about the ability of vaccinated individuals still being able to carry the disease and therefore still contagious.

Cross posted with everyone!

Sorry all! Yep, I was referring to sterilising immunity - and absolutely not to any potentially adverse affects on fertility ... (a worry which seems unproven/ ill-founded....)

@CheesePeaseLouees,

That was my complete misinterpretation of your post, based on other crap that I have seen written elsewhere by other people. Sorry that I was so thick!

You are absolutely right to be interested in that question, of whether vaccinated individuals will still be able to carry the disease and therefore still contagious, or not. It seems highly likely that at least some vaccinated individuals will be somewhat contagious given that none of these vaccines are 100% effective, but how many vaccinated individuals are potentially contagious and how contagious they can be will be two very important questions. Hopefully the answers will be, "not very many" and "not very contagious"!