When are things going to start improving?

[Blanketyblankblankety]

I'm so fed up I could cry and I can only see things getting worse not better. The Christmas bubbles are bound to cause a massive surge in cases and schools are going to be a disaster next term because of this. I've got DS self isolating again for the 3rd time this term and due to do GCSES next summer. He's spent so long sat down starring at his screen doing home learning this term he's morphed into an antisocial [redacted]. When DS has actually been in school I've had DD off self isolating. Dh has been WFH since March, I can't remember the last time I was alone. I know people have got things so much worse than me but when is this light at the end of the tunnel going to appear?

Plus in the spirit of the thread, I want the damn vaccine so that serious very very bad situations in my family life can be resolved. So I am impatient. There are vaccines in the country. IMO any vaccines currently in storage would be better off inside a human.

My birthday is at the end of March. I'm hoping things are starting to look a bit brighter by then, but not expecting much improvement before.

@gebruiker

I know we have to be grateful there is any approved vaccine but apparently we now have 2.5 million doses in the country, not the original 400000 (x2 doses).

What's your source for that? And surely it's reasonable to take it somewhat slowly in the very first week, especially with the adverse reactions from those with allergies?

I'll bet that the same people whining about how 'slow' the vaccine roll-out is would also be screaming about the incompetence of the govt if a large number of people suffered severe side effects.

January will be dire! But I think by Spring and definitely by Summer, there will be huge improvements .
Hang in there!

@gebruiker

Plus in the spirit of the thread, I want the damn vaccine so that serious very very bad situations in my family life can be resolved. So I am impatient. There are vaccines in the country. IMO any vaccines currently in storage would be better off inside a human.

If you can think of a way to overcome the logistical difficulties posed by a vaccine which must be stored in batches at - 70 degrees, I'll bet there are govts worldwide who'd pay good money for your advice.

What's a reasonable number to vaccinate with an entirely new and logistically difficult vaccine in the very first week of roll-out-, in your opinion?

Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern
NEW: London hospitals forced to cancel operations to free up staffing as critical care beds fill up

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-london-nhs-hospitals-operations-staffing-barts-b1775648.html
Coronavirus: London hospitals cancel operations to free up staffing as critical care beds fill up

NHS staff warn ‘January will be a nightmare’ as the capital sees surge in Covid cases

On Wednesday, there were a total of 2,289 coronavirus patients in London hospitals, an increase of two per cent on the day before.

But the numbers of coronavirus patients in critical care beds jumped 8.6 per cent in a single day.

Across London, there were just 49 adult critical care beds available on Wednesday - One NHS source said: "January will be a nightmare"

For some context. Its taking at least three weeks after cases peak for hospital admissions to start dropping. Cases haven't peaked yet.

So another couple of months before things improve even if we get another full lockdown is a reasonable assessment of the situation.

If you are in T3 now, you aren't getting out of it before March imho. And there are places in T2 which are still likely to go back into T3. At which point sticking to the tier system rather than another full lockdown makes no sense (2/3 england will be in t3 from Sat).

I really do think one will be announced at the last minute for 28th over new year....

We had 400,000 vaccine doses. However we only got through 138,000 in the first week.

To do the first 4 priority groups:
1) Older adults resident in a care home and care home workers
2) All those 80 years of age and over. Front line health and social care workers
3) All those 75 years of age and over
4) All those 70 years of age and over and those over 65 with serious health conditions

You are looking at about 10million people (or around a 1/6th of the population).

Last week was hampered by IT technical issues slowing the process down which didn't help.

But to expand things to be able to get that number of people through the system in a couple of months is a HUGE ask. And doesn't even touch those who are healthy between 50 and 70 or those under 64 with serious health conditions who are still at risk.

If you are in T3 now, you aren't getting out of it before March imho. And there are places in T2 which are still likely to go back into T3. At which point sticking to the tier system rather than another full lockdown makes no sense (2/3 england will be in t3 from Sat).

I agree with this, but I also think that even full lockdown is never going to work again as well as it did in March/April in terms of compliance. I don't know what the answer to that is but I think that the traffic is only one way there - people breaking rules now won't stop, but others will join them - and so there's a ever diminishing return on the measures, while the economic damage they cause doesn't reduce at all. Again, I think the only viable message is to keep convincing people that it's 'just a bit longer', Machiavellian as that is.

What's a reasonable number to vaccinate with an entirely new and logistically difficult vaccine in the very first week of roll-out-, in your opinion In my county there is one hub per large town. That is not in the hospital so presumably they are currently able to move the vaccine from the hospital to the hub. Why not have 2 hubs? Staff issues - maybe. But they wanted volunteers for non-medical roles - they had 250 people come forward in the first couple of days, which according to the coordinator is much much more than they needed, so many people have been told they are not needed for now. Medical staff is more difficult, but there are also former nurses volunteering to help with that. I believe it is currently being run only using GPs on a rota from the local surgeries.
As I said, I know I sound impatient, but there has been a long time to plan for this and it is quite small scale at the moment.

Plus as they say it is 'unprecedented' and the country is apparently going to ruin, not to mention the virus is causing illness, long-term debilitation and death. I think we can all be impatient. Why are we happy with one photo of a very elderly person happy that they are vaccinated? This is not how we envisaged the glorious vaccination roll-out. I am well aware of the logistical nightmare, but if you can do 1 hub you can probably do 2 etc. There are volunteers being turned away.

And don't come on a 'I'm struggling' thread and tell people not to be negative. Move along to the positive news thread.
The OP is struggling and so am I. Many people are.
This is not the positive news thread and we are not feeling positive.

@gebruiker Do you really think they don't want to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible? Do you seriously believe that people with much more expertise than random MNers aren't giving all their energy to getting this done as soon as possible?

This is not how we envisaged the glorious vaccination roll-out. I am well aware of the logistical nightmare, but if you can do 1 hub you can probably do 2 etc.

"Probably" eh? In reality you don't have a clue about the constraints. At least they've started, unlike the EU which was perfectly happy to wait until after Xmas to even approve the vaccine, until Merkel told them to get their act together.

Has any country which has already appoved the vaccine done significinatly better than the UK at this point in time?

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9063133/Britains-Covid-vaccination-scheme-needs-FOUR-TIMES-quicker-meet-target.html

I am not the only person who has noticed this slow pace. Apparently the vaccinations need to be going at 4 times the rate they are being given at the moment to meet the government's own targets.

Oh I can’t resist

“ Plus as they say it is 'unprecedented' and the country is apparently going to ruin, not to mention the virus is causing illness, long-term debilitation and death.”

Flu and pneumonia are causing far more illness and death. Did you worry about that before?

I’d imagine a huge tranche of those dying with pneumonia and flu have been vaccinated.

@gebruiker

And don't come on a 'I'm struggling' thread and tell people not to be negative. Move along to the positive news thread. The OP is struggling and so am I. Many people are. This is not the positive news thread and we are not feeling positive.

It's not a question of being 'positive'. I'm the last person to believe in enforced positivity. It's about making unreasonable demands from a position of zero expertise.

Icedpurple you are very aggressive for a thread about struggling with how long will last. You are not helping. You don't know anything about me, but I am not random, I work in clinical trials and have relatives working on Covid wards.

I suggest you double-check the OP and reconsider whether you are being kind.

@gebruiker

Icedpurple you are very aggressive for a thread about struggling with how long will last. You are not helping. You don't know anything about me, but I am not random, I work in clinical trials and have relatives working on Covid wards.

Challenging points you chose to make is not being 'aggressive'.

As for 'helping' I didn't know this was a support group. Are your unrealistic demands 'helping' anyone?

position of zero expertise Hopefully we have clarified that I do have expertise.
The problem is the government has left it all to the GPs to organise. They don't have capacity for this. Yes, they can probably only organise 1 hub per group of surgeries. Why didn't the government undertake better planning for this scenario. They have left it all to a group of people who already have enough to do. The bottleneck is medical staff. They are already transporting the vaccine to hubs so they have overcome that hurdle. There are plenty of volunteers to run the non-medical side (too many apparently). Why wasn't the shortage of vaccinators addressed in the past few months? Hospitals are full of staff trained to administer drugs. If they are taking GPs away from their surgeries to run these hubs, why not sidetrack other medical staff to the hubs, it is no worse even if it is not better.

And I already posted a link to a news article about how the pace of the vaccination programme is now recognised nationally to be going too slow!!!

Hopefully we have clarified that I do have expertise.

Not really. Everyone on MN has 'relatives working on Covid wards'.

As I asked above, of the countries which aren't still hanging around waiting to approve the vaccine, which has done a significantly better job at this early stage?

@gebruiker

And I already posted a link to a news article about how the pace of the vaccination programme is now recognised nationally to be going too slow!!!

An article from the Daily Mail which is one of the least credible papers around!

It is one of the stupidest articles on the covid response I have read. YES if vaccination goes at the speed of the first week it will be too slow. No shit Sherlock. That’s why the rollout is speeding up with greatly increased numbers of hubs coming on stream in the second week. The DM is being sensationalist and irresponsible by extrapolating from the speed of the first few days to pretend there is a problem.

But I don't think they actually make up stories. There are statistics in it etc.

I very much doubt the DM journalists worked out those statistics themselves. They would have obtained them from statisticians etc.