Why are some schools being hit worse than others?

[DumplingsAndStew]

I am NOT looking for a fight, or to apportion blame to anyone, just looking for discussion.

Our high school of 1000+ has had 3 pupils and 1 member of staff (unconnected) positive in total. This was all around a similar time, a good few weeks ago.

I'd imagine the issues that schools have implementing safety procedures should be fairly similar across the UK. The number of kids socialising outside of school would - I think - be comparable from one school to another.

Why are some schools seeing more positive cases, and more transmission between pupils than others?

Luck. Geography/location in the country. Size. School building, facilities, budget, intake, demographics, local community rates, rural/urban, testing availability....

Luck . If you have an infected superspreader or not in school...

Where I live the worst hit schools have been in the most deprived areas. Could that be because the parents are less likely to have white collar (work from home) jobs? More overcrowding at home?

Luck, although I do wonder if it actually spread around DD school in Feb/March before testing was widespread. So we are spared a bit this time round?

@Theotherrudolph

Luck. Geography/location in the country. Size. School building, facilities, budget, intake, demographics, local community rates, rural/urban, testing availability....

How do these things affect contagion and spread, though?

I guess, yeah, the size of the class would make a difference as obviously more pupils forces closer contact. That would also cover intake. And I'm assuming that's what you meant with the rural/urban reference?

@Northernsoullover

Where I live the worst hit schools have been in the most deprived areas. Could that be because the parents are less likely to have white collar (work from home) jobs? More overcrowding at home?

Do you think these families are more likely to continue to send their kids to school infected then?

So many things are luck.

What if the child who gets it is an introvert with very rule-bound parents? Massively unlikely to spread far. But if they are an extrovert, with a large circle that doesn't observe rules, and an attitude about masks and distancing... very different.

With exponential growth, you don't need a lot to make it skyrocket.

I agree, luck, super spreaders.

@Oneandonfugcyh

Luck, although I do wonder if it actually spread around DD school in Feb/March before testing was widespread. So we are spared a bit this time round?

That's an interesting possibility. I'm not sure what absence rates were pre-lockdown in March as mine were, ironically, isolating due to symptoms

Luck, superspreaders, testing, some people still sending kids in/not testing, and then once it arrives it seems to rip through - 1 case is containable/contained, 2.. ok getting dodgy here... then bam it spreads like wildfire. In my totally unscientific view, obv.

My DDs school had had 3 cases since September until a few weeks ago. They now have over 300 children and staff isolating and new cases appearing every other day. They have advised that pupils may do remote learning for the rest of the term if we wish.

@MrsTerryPratchett

What if the child who gets it is an introvert with very rule-bound parents? Massively unlikely to spread far.

You've pretty much just described my teenager Doesn't speak to a sole all day, wears mask from 8.30am - 4pm (apart from ten minutes at lunch). I guess she's less likely than some to spread it.

possibly ventilation, sunshine, demographics.
i think it will be interesting to unpick the data in years to come.

Mine too. She'd live in a mask, hoodie and legging all day if she could. She's loved lockdown!

@adagio

Luck, superspreaders, testing, some people still sending kids in/not testing, and then once it arrives it seems to rip through - 1 case is containable/contained, 2.. ok getting dodgy here... then bam it spreads like wildfire. In my totally unscientific view, obv.

So do you reckon much of it comes from one or two pupils (or staff, I suppose) not isolating when they should, then it just goes from there?

I wonder how much of it really is asymptomatic spreading, and what is just carelessness.

@fallfallfall

possibly ventilation, sunshine, demographics. i think it will be interesting to unpick the data in years to come.

It is interesting isn't it. I'm hoping individual school's risk assessments will be studied in detail so they can figure out what actually did make a difference. Would be interesting data to have in the case of a similar pandemic in the future.

Though I can tell you, it's not sunshine preventing spread here

@MrsTerryPratchett

Mine too. She'd live in a mask, hoodie and legging all day if she could. She's loved lockdown!

Mine has loved and hated at the same time. She loves not having to see people, but at the same time has hated not learning what she should be, and is stressed as she's in an exam year (though no exams) and planning to leave school for college this year. She does love being able to hide behind her mask all day though and disappear.

Yep, or more likely, (and a more charitable view of people!) is that a couple of people spread it around before they have the faintest clue they have it or been exposed to it so they wouldn’t know to self isolate. I suppose the press about how poor track and trace us lends itself to this theory too.

We’ve had hardly any children at my child’s secondary school test positive and none at my son’s primary school. However many staff have tested positive Including admin. I doubt they are getting it from students as community rates in our area are extremely low. However the staff are likely to commute in from high risk areas and have spread it between themselves. I daren't say this on the other threads as the teachers on there would go mad.

It would be interesting to see if there is a link between schools that have tried to keep secondary classes in one ‘zone’ or classroom compared to those that have carried on as normal with all students mixing and moving around. My school is the former and I certainly think it has vastly reduced cross bubble contamination.

“How do these things affect contagion and spread, though?”

Because a school with lots of windows that open, more hall space, more outdoor space etc is going to find it easier to ventilate, distance etc. Some schools have no opening windows at all. A school with more budget can afford hand sanitizer etc more easily.

A bigger school is more likely to have a superspreading event just because there are more people there - just like Glastonbury would be more likely to have a mass outbreak than a pub gig.

A deprived school in an urban area with high community spread is more likely to have a superspreader because it will just have more infected people coming in in the first place. Certain schools will have more behaviour/compliance with rules issues than others. Some will have more pupils on public transport or the tube, some will have most of the children on school buses, some will be almost entirely walkers/cyclists.

Basically, every school is different - I don’t think they do all find it equally easy to implement safety measures. I’m not sure those safety measures actually make an enormous difference anyway, I suspect it’s mostly luck and a reflection of rates in the community. And I don’t think anyone actually has a proper picture of school spread anyway, there’s a total lack of published research using mass regular testing for example.

Our head has also been very hot on insisting staff distance, discouraging lift sharing and emphasising the role of staff distancing.

We are a secondary in the south east. We had a confirmed case in March when one member of staff had to be taken by ambulance into hospital so he was tested. The rest of us were all ill to varying degrees in the same few weeks before lockdown but no one else was tested back then. Now we have not had a single case in the school so it makes sense that we all had it and are immune.

Luck. And community case level.

I think it's really interesting & definitely think some people must be massive spreaders. One of dc's classmates had it but not one other child in the class became ill. This is a primary where the kids don't socially distance in class.

My brother works in a big secondary school, a few cases amongst pupils. He has no contact with kids but tested positive 3 wks ago after getting a temp. Not one other person in his bubble at work has had it, even though again little social distancing.