Why are deaths still so high?

[likeamillpond]

Deaths are averaging 400 a day.

What happened to the
"We have better treatments now.
We give people steroids and the ventilation methods we use are better"
Because of this, people have a better chance of surviving covid than they did during the first wave"

This is the story we were sold. Right? (I didn't imagine it

And yet, the death rates are high.

I can understand that more testing will increase figures,
But it still doesn't explain the consistently high death rate.

Was it all wishful thinking?

Because people are ignoring the advice on “hands face space” , especially social distancing. They also listen to commentators in the media and on radio who keep telling people that it’s no worse than seasonal flu, that lockdowns don’t work and that it only affects a very small percentage of the old and vulnerable. All of which is complete and utter bollocks. As for treatment , I work in NHS critical care and we always were using steroids altho we don’t tube patients like we did. That means at least you have some lung function as you recover. But the Covid unit where I work is at capacity again.

UK death rates are lowest in the summer months and rise through the autumn towards a peak in January and decrease as the weather warms up. Respiritory illness is always a significant cause of death over the winter months.
Covid 19 fits within these trends (possibly exaggerating them, but then there is also an offset that "Covid Secure" measures are also reducing "normal" seasonal illnesses too) The demographics most vulverable to dying from Covid 19 are also those that are most vulverable to a winter peak of deaths from respiritory illnesses.

400 deaths a day in December is less alarming than 400 deaths a day would be in June.

Yes, I wonder why there isn't more focus around experimental treatments (e.g. use of existing drugs off-label) - in the news I mean, I would like to think that trials are underway

All the hype seems to be around vaccines at the moment and not everyone will be able to/want to have them at present

Also , what a lot of people don’t seem to understand is that a lot of Covid patients suffer heart failure. That and blood clots and stroke. We are also seen the effects of Long Covid, persistent chest complaints and fatigue.

It's falling in some places snd rising in others. Also don't forget those who die would have been unwell many weeks so we're reflecting on what the landscape was a few weeks ago. In mr area we were at 900+ cases per 100,000, now we're about 100 ish so loads better but still very ill in hospital

How has the IFR changed?

We're averaging say 400 deaths a day, but it was closer to 900 back in April. That's an improvement, yes?

Yea I suppose if we didn’t have dexamethazone and remdesivir then maybe deaths would be 600+ a day?

400 deaths a day in December is less alarming than 400 deaths a day would be in June

Exactly. Don't forget "normal flu" has almost completely disappeared this year, so those who would normally die from flu, are now dying from Covid. We never get to see flu figures for the winter months, as it is a normal pattern, but we always see the hospitals at full capacity, with many elderly people, who catch flu, despite having a vaccine, and go on to develop pneumonia, and sadly die.

ONS quote: There were an estimated 23,200 excess winter deaths which occurred in England and Wales in the 2018 to 2019 winter, the lowest since the winter of 2013 to 2014.

And that was a low year....

The death rates are of people who died within 28 days of testing positive for covid, doesn't mean they died of covid.

Do you know how many people normally die every day?

I think they said the percentage of people who enter hospital and survive has increased . So the new treatments , which have involved a lot of studies and funding have helped.

@Pyewhacket

Thank you for everything you do .

LazyPuppy This is what I find confusing as well TBH.

@Lazypuppy

The death rates are of people who died within 28 days of testing positive for covid, doesn't mean they died of covid.

Do you know how many people normally die every day?

But overall more than 400 people are dying every day.

The 400 are just the people dying with COVID. That's a hell of a lot of people. And while some of them are old or have underlying health conditions that doesn't mean they were guaranteed to die of something soon.

My in laws are in their 70s, MIL has lupus so is immune compromised. Given that she is currently very active and robust, works full time, goes on several long dog walks a day and cares for her 92 year old mother who still has all her faculties and lives alone, I have no reason to suspect she has anything less than 20 more years of life to enjoy. If she got COVID and died she would be one of those examples of 'over 70 with underlying health conditions' that some people seem to think are negligible.

It might be because those numbers are people dying with Covid, not necessarily dying of Covid, and the death rate increases in winter anyway?

I also wonder if this many were dying with Covid back in March/April, but because there were comparatively fewer tests being done then, we just didn't know the full extent of it. Now, everyone is tested on admission to hospital regardless of the reason for being admitted.

@letsmakethetea

It might be because those numbers are people dying with Covid, not necessarily dying of Covid, and the death rate increases in winter anyway?

NHS chiefs do not agree, the numbers in hospital with say a terminal stroke AND Covid are vanishingly small.

Also mild weather, huge uptake in Flu vaccine and more SD has reduced the numbers dying from normal respiratory infections.

Look at the excess deaths, no one is shutting down the economy anywhere in the world because of a non existent illness.

As someone mentioned upthread covid is a multiorgan illness. It affects all body systems. Someone could be admitted with respiratory failure due to covid, recover but die of a CVA or MI because of a covid related clotting disorder. Equally covid related pneumonitis can make a patient more susceptible to a secondary bacterial lung infection which can then cause death. A person has well controlled heart failure but add covid into the mixture and sadly they die. Covid might not be the direct cause of death but on top of other health issues it's creates a tipping point.
I can't understand why people tie themselves in knots to deny reality.

It does sound a bit like I'm denying it, now I read that back! I didn't mean it in that way at all though. I work in a data-related field and usually raw numbers of anything are pretty useless. So many things affect absolutely everything. I'm not suggesting that it isn't happening or that it isn't a huge problem, but that we probably aren't getting the full story from raw numbers of + tests/death per day etc.

I cant believe this still needs explaining.

It's not 400 people died TODAY its 400 were notified as having died today. For example in my town we just had 2 deaths logged for today, but they also confirmed one died on 28th November and one died on 7th december.

Its the reporting delays that skew the figures which is why they do the 7 day rolling total.

No @SpnBaby1967 you don't need to explain that at all, I don't think anyone on this thread has in any way suggested that they think the daily reporting is real time data.

Actually if you look at the 7 day rolling average as you suggest, then you're right it's not 400 people a day dying with COVID it's 432.6.

The reason it is so many is because it's a highly infectious virus spread by close contact via droplets from mouth and nose, and because once you have it, it affects multiple organs causing damage throughout your system.

The reason the infection rate is still so high despite people being told to wash their hands, wear a mask, avoid close contact and be aware, is because people think they know better.

People 'make their own risk assessment' and assume that everything will be fine when they meet their mates, give their extended family a hug, decide to ignore the mask requirements, have people round because 'it's my right, no ones telling me who I can have round my house and when I can see my family'.

This means that the small amount of tolerance we have to enable school, work and economy to operate without a massive spike is eroded by everyones personal decisions and risk assessments and we end up back where we started.

Look at the numbers in hospital - at the peak of the first wave 1000 a day died. then we had a proper lockdown so numbers reduced. The death rate per person admitted is better but there are still lots of people being admitted so lots of deaths. No-one ever said there wouldnt be deaths, but a smaller proportion of admissions die thanks to better treatment. Of course when staff are sick or exhausted you can expect that percentage to go up.

I suspect it’s because they’ve massively under tested, tested the wrong areas at the wrong times etc. I can’t believe our mortality rate is as high as the ratio reported suggests.

The treatments are working

Imagine how much higher they would be !