1 in 115 in England have virus at any given time

[Ninbuscl]

And 1 in 120 in Scotland and Wales.

This figure seems to high to me. If these rates continue for say 10 weeks then over 10percent of the population will have had it. And that is on top of the previous cases in the first wave.

What percentage of people do you think will have had it by the time we are in spring? At least 1 in 4 surely?

• So high not to high

Iirc these figures are less than half the estimates from about a month ago. Recorded deaths per day are about 300 as against 1,000 in April. In April excess death figures indicate upwards of 1/3 of deaths were under recorded. So implies incidence in April was x5 what it was a month ago ie 1 in 10. (not far off anti body est from this period) Given we are now 9 months I agree it seems plausible that it is at least 1 in 4.

That’s a fairly comprehensive assessment. It could even be 1 in 3 or 1 in 2 possibly. Makes me wonder if T cells remain (I know antibodies possibly don’t) that we really would t be far off the 60% they said would be needed for herd immunity. I am not an advocate of herd immunity at all especially as we still don’t know much at all about how long antibodies last. But previously I thought it would take too long to get to this 60% figure. Now it looks as if we may be half way there!

I still don’t know anyone who has it.

Note to self after pandemic - stop being a hermit and expand social group!!

Who has had it that should say !

I know lots and lots which is reflected in the various regional stats. That's the other issue. It seems pretty likely that infection rates are not uniform but are instead concentrated. This may not matter if the area with lower concentration are inherently lower risk for spread.

I assume these figures are from random testing not the symptomatic cases. Glasgow city is supposed to be one of the worst areas in Scotland but is currently 155 in 100000. So these numbers don’t seem to add up. Does it reflect the vast number of asymptomatic cases?

Yes I agree , my area has been consistently low despite being close to London. I wonder if it will go across to different areas in time though eg parts of Kent are now having a real problem.

I know absolutely loads who have had it as well

I'm tested weekly so know if I would of had it. I also know many who have had it to.

Yes the ONS is extrapolated from random sampling and so separate from the "daily cases". I think it also specifically excludes anyone covered by the normal testing and so may well be an underestimate.

So the typical rates quoted in Scotland are about 100 in 100,000. Which works out at about 1 in 1000. But the random sampling is giving 1 in 120. So for every symptomatic case found there are probably 9 others which don’t get tested

so

People can get this more than once. So some of the people who possibly had it in April (when we hardly tested anyone) will be getting it again. Case studies have shown that the second infection can be worse than the first.

Regarding deaths, the mortality has gone down since April, as we now have improved understanding of how to treat the more serious cases.

Regarding herd immunity, it is a forlorn hope to achieve this through community infection. Infectious diseases do not normally limit their own spread in this way. This is why vaccination has been so important in managing infections diseases.

Sorry I wasn’t really advocating herd immunity. I should have explained better

herecomesthesun your paras 1 and 2 are in direct contradiction.