Anyone think there will be a 3rd lockdown Jan ?

[Xtfc123]

Not that I want one, I think the whole thing is a massive overreaction, but I suspect there may be if cases continue to rise.

I know there will be people on here who 'know 10 people who died' or 'know how many beds their hospital has left'.

It is indeed a risk to very elderly and very vulnerable folk and I hope they receive a vaccination asap and to be able to resume normal life.

But part of me still thinks figures are manipulated and that there are a lot of false positive and asymptomatic cases.

Now once again cases are suddenly rising to fit in with the '3rd lockdown' narrative, because 'selfish idiots' went out to Primark.

@madcatladyforever

There will continue to be lockdowns until we've all been vaccinated because it seems having a normal Christmas is more important than being alive and not giving covid to your mum and dad.

Or indeed your mum or dad giving it to you. Some "elderly" people are in their late 50s and early 60s and working in schools, shops and other people-facing jobs.

Surely it depends on how fast we vaccinate? If we do the oldies and nhs staff in Dec it could all be very different in Jan.

It cases get bad again it think the lockdown could be in February, as they’ll have to let it get bad enough before they have enough backing. Eg. They could have locked down for less time in October when cases started to rise but they waited till November when it was really obvious from the data that they couldn’t just do nothing.

I think as we have to have two doses of the vaccine it takes about a month to take effect? It’s not instant unfortunately.

I actually think we may have tiers in Jan, it then gets worse inevitably in Feb. One final lockdown or very strict measures in Feb. Knowing that by March the vaccine will start to have an impact on the rates?

Actually, according to the FDA analysis of vaccine clinical trials, Pfizer vaccine “provides strong protection against Covid-19 within about 10 days of the first dose...”

“Strong” protection does not equal 95% efficacy but even 50% protection should, hopefully, start making a difference.

Oh that’s good. I was just half listening to the radio and I thought that was the timeline they were taking about. Quicker is better!

We don't currently have anywhere near enough vaccine to vaccinate anything but a tiny proportion of the "at risk" groups.

The whole of Phase 1 is well over 15 million people. We currently have enough vaccine for 400,000 people.

I think January will be Tier 3 for all, and a very sad month for many.

Of course we will. They want as many people begging for the vaccine as possible

Their incompetence is not our fault, we shouldn't have to suffer for it. Fed up of hearing people talking about "doing our bit". Done it for 9 months now, enough.

Fuzzy they are still making the vaccine - it won’t stop at 400k doses

yup - the 3rd lockdown will commence on January 14th

Fuzzy they are still making the vaccine - it won’t stop at 400k doses

Yep, I know. We have 10m of the Pfizer ones on order. But "on order" doesn't mean "imminent", sadly. And so far, none of the others have been approved. I'm very pro vaccination and can't wait, but I think it might take rather longer than expected.

They're also trialling things like "One Pfizer and one Oxford/AZ" to see if that is beneficial in terms of efficacy. All these things take time.

@isitsnowingyet

yup - the 3rd lockdown will commence on January 14th

Do you have inside knowledge, or is this just a random guesss? Just wondering why so specific with the date...?

They're also trialling things like "One Pfizer and one Oxford/AZ" to see if that is beneficial in terms of efficacy. All these things take time.

Do you have a link for that please? Sounds very interesting.

I predict 1st week of Feb

@JovialNickname thank you for that, I needed it

@madcatladyforever

There will continue to be lockdowns until we've all been vaccinated because it seems having a normal Christmas is more important than being alive and not giving covid to your mum and dad.

But we're not all going to be vaccinated are we? Children aren't.

Parts of Wales are very close to being overwhelmed . One nurse to two patients in Icu currently in some hospitals. The relaxation over Xmas will mean an absolute hospital crisis.

Inevitable

I never quite understand when people say things like “no more lockdowns, we need to get back to normal now and live our lives.” Like they’ve completely forgotten the thing about hospitals being overwhelmed with the virus running free in the middle of winter.

14 Jan is 3 weeks after Xmas I imagine is why PP said 14 Jan.

Some people I know who closely track cases say the rise has gone exponential again (in general, England). I want to hope they are wrong, but always they have been right before, so... :-( I'm expecting ~3 Jan for start of Lockdown 3.0

Yes I think so, or at least widespread tier 3.

They'll probably wait for uni students to go back then lock the poor kids in again.

I'm not objecting to restrictions by the way, if my kids were at uni I'd be keeping them home.

I’m in Scotland there wouldn’t seem to be any justification for it. Hospital projections have befs at nowhere near full capacity.

I also find it unacceptable to lock down for Covid in winter because the NHS has no capacity in even a normal winter because of what people have voted for in voting in the Tories.

@MadameBlobby

I also find it unacceptable to lock down for Covid in winter because the NHS has no capacity in even a normal winter because of what people have voted for in voting in the Tories.

Er - we've had a Labour government in Wales since the Assembly was founded in 1999. Hospitals in South Wales (particularly the Labour-voting areas, not the Conservative-voting VoG) are pretty much on the verge of total collapse.