Why are rates increasing so much in Kent?

[IndoorLiving]

Is there any reason? Or anyone have any theories? We are in a neighbouring area and trying to work out if we need to be worried. Thanks

I have seen newspaper articles saying that people in Sheppey have been ignoring social distancing, not wearing masks and ignoring all the other rules. I don't know if that is true but, if it was, it would be why infection rates are high in east Kent.
Infection rates are still low in some of kent, such as Sevenoaks.

You'll find in all threads such as this posters flying on to say its clearly because people in X, Y, Z are flagrantly breaking rules, don't wear masks etc etc. Until rates suddenly increase in their areas, at which point they mysteriously go missing.

Not directed at you woodlandwalker. Just a general observation from the Liverpool, Manchester, NE threads

@XiCi

Not directed at you woodlandwalker. Just a general observation from the Liverpool, Manchester, NE threads

I was going to say the same thing. By this point most of the country have been accused of being selfish rule breakers

I live locally , not on Sheppey but in the local area. I see the majority of people adhering to rules to be honest, especially around masks etc. Schools are really strict (rightly so).

It really does only need a handful of households to all go down with it to skew the figures. It's like dominoes falling.

It can't be down to rule breakers alone, I'd say it was bad luck, coupled with breaking rules and it could happen anywhere. It's not a failing of a particular area, aside from deprivation which is definitely a factor.

But not every deprived area will go the same way because bad luck is definitely needed for the virus to make its way in.

They have three prisons on Sheppey and the rates in there are probably influencing the figures as the inmates are in such close contact it will spread quickly.

The ONS has an interactive map where you can look at infection rates and deaths down to local ward level which would probably indicate that some small areas have high rates which make a whole large area look bad.
Where I live, there have been high infections in my local ward but not borough wide. There seems no logic to it as it is not a deprived area, mostly houses, not flats, not high density population and fairly small BAME popuation. The only I can think is that there's lots of elderly.

Medway/Maidstone area here. I feel we got off lightly in the first wave, surprising at the time considering how many commuters into London from these areas. I think alot of people started working from home early in March which maybe helped. My daughter’s primary school had no cases until this week and now 5 classes are closed due to positive cases. I’m really hoping we’ve reached the peak now and will be on a downwards trend from now on.

We are in a very low area of Kent - or have been, and none of my four children have had any disruption to their schooling since September. However, today one of the schools has sent their L6 home and another local school, its Y10. We barely got hit in the first wave, and it seems places that escaped first time round are getting it hard now - so perhaps it's just our turn!

I do hope that it's the beginning of the end though - people here ARE social distancing, wearing masks and generally behaving well so who knows how it is spreading.

Flagrant rule breaking, mass illegal raving, and people wearing their masks under their chin on buses.

I'm in a rural area near Maidstone. I think it's a combination of not very affected in the first wave and a sort of 'othering' if that makes sense. My family live in a white, working class area of the nw and there was very much a sense there that coronavirus only affected Asian families in multigenerational families so lots of mixing in their families etc wasn't really a risk, lots of kids playing together and sleepovers etc. I've a sinking feeling that people in Kent have replaced Asian multigenerational families with eastern Europeans so there's been a bit more laxness in terms of social contacts.

I'm also in Maidstone. The cases have steadily risen and local schools are either shutting or closing year groups. Having said that all my children have stayed in school. The bizarre thing is that other parts of Kent have such low numbers. Around here everyone seems to be following the rules and I don't think it's fair to say that sheppey aren't. There won't be one cause only. Plenty of people perhaps can't work from home, lots of care homes and a number of prisons. Also I would have thought an element of bad luck. Once the virus has infected a few people it is likely a domino reaction especially in poorer areas with overcrowding and other social concerns.

I thought prison outbreaks had skewed the figures?

Well, if you look at the bits of Kent that are worst affected, there is a strong link with the areas with higher levels of deprivation. It’s not as if West Kent is renowned for its poverty or its prisons.

Prisons are not anywhere near the whole answer - unless there are a hell of a lot of prisoners escaping.

A lot of positive cases in my workplace in Kent, me and DP included. Once it gets going it's very contagious.

I start this by saying I was born in and lived in the Medway towns until I was 26.

It did not surprise me at all that Medway was hit so hard and continues to be

For a long, long time, it's been a very badly off area. Schooling is pretty crap across the board and many in my time at school left either with very low prospects or very badly educated. I have friends who left at 16 unable to read and it went unnoticed. I myself have only very basic maths skills to this day, probably on a par with infant school (which yes is embarrassing as fuck).
There is huge crime and drug issues (it was nicknamed "Brown Town" in the nineties as it was the source of the cheapest crack and heroin in the south east).
There is a huge amount of immigration as well and many have English as a foreign language. Many are hiding from the authorities so if they do get ill they won't seek help.
The local hospital has been marked as failing by the CQC for a number of years and one of the biggest healthcare companies responsible for several GP surgeries has recently been banned from operating due to being worse than inadequate, leaving quite a high number of residents with no GP surgery as a result, something which has been ongoing for months and probably not helped by the pandemic.

With all those issues, and mates who live there suggesting that you very rarely see anyone wearing a mask properly if at all, plus quite a big proportion of underlying illness and old age, along with poverty and you've got the perfect situation for a huge spike.

Now, I haven't said this to be offensive to anyone who still lives there, as I say I still have family and very good friends who live there who have said how bad it is (including a nurse) so apologies if I'm wrong here.

Thanks for your thoughts. In the areas I know it’s the areas with higher deprivation that have been harder hit.

I think that one issue may be that there are some huge huge families locally - it's not massively unusual to have 6-8 kids in a house, so if everyone in that house gets it, that will make huge numbers very quickly

The highstreet in my (high case) town in Kent was absolutely jam packed today. I was walking through on my way to work not shopping myself. Only about 60% of people wearing masks and very little social distancing. If anyone has seen the videos of the queue in Bluewaters Primark, thats also an example of why the numbers are high. The schools are starting to be badly hit here too, whereas before we got away lightly.

I think the secondary schooling system probably doesn't help either, with lots of the grammars being single sex it's common to have siblings attending multiple schools, especially if some pass Kent test and others don't.

Sevenoaks here people are abiding by the rules. I don't know anyone breaking them! I think it's just bad luck.

If you look at where the cases are highest in Kent, it's either areas with more deprivation and overcrowded housing, and / or density and mobile population.

In mid Kent we don't have a huge number of commuters into London, and those people are mainly WFH permanently anyway. But we do have a high number of people commuting in / out from around the county, and we have a very mobile secondary school population as well due to the grammar system.

I disagree we didn't have it bad in the first wave, we just didn't know how much community transmission there was.

In fact, we had it circulating well before lockdown 1 with the ski trip returners etc. The first confirmed case was Maidstone studios if you recall.

Our second wave has just come a lot later relative to other places imo.

It was always going to happen in Kent, it was just a matter of when.

Someone on mumsnet said there was a theory that rather than familes having kids at primary school/ kids at a comp or private school, in Kent families are more spread out at boys grammars, girls' grammars, secondary moderns, primary, private, so more exposure