How quickly will the number of cases come down once the ecv and nhs/care workers are vaccinated?

[Mumof3andlovingit]

If the ecv/cv, nhs staff and care home workers are all vaccinated by the end of this year, do you think case numbers will start to decrease quickly?
I’m just thinking about the flu virus and I know it isn’t the same, however I’ve never caught the flu despite not being vaccinated (don’t qualify for it) and believe this is probably because a lot of people in the community are vaccinated so we are all protected as a result. With the flu vaccine though a lot of children in primary schools get it, so perhaps won’t have the same effects as children won’t be vaccinated against covid.
Btw catching covid doesn’t worry me a lot (although I would rather not catch it just like I would rather not catch any other virus) I’m just thinking that once case numbers start to come down faster then restrictions may start to be eased for all of us.

I would doubt it. The ecv aren't any more likely than the rest of us to catch the virus. They're more likely to get it badly/die of it. Healthcare workers are of course more likely to catch it but a) they're a small percentage of the population and b) a lot of them have already had it.

It think that first wave of vaccinations will bring down the hospital and death rates. But I think we will need to see more groups vaccinated before the vaccine affects the number of cases.

I think it’s unlikely all those groups will be vaccinated by Christmas even if it starts in a few days, and don’t forget it takes basically a whole month till you’re fully protected, once the second jab has taken effect.
I think you’re right that relaxation will depend on case numbers rather than on everyone having had the jab, but there are so many other factors affecting case numbers, including behaviour and weather.

It think that first wave of vaccinations will bring down the hospital and death rates.

I agree with this and believe case numbers will not matter so much then. If hospitals are not in danger of being overwhelmed then Covid should be treated like any other virus.

As soon as we get the over 75's vaccinated the death rate and hospital admissions will drop off a cliff. Life will go back to normal very quickly then. It's just no one wants to admit this has always been about protecting old folks and that other generations have made enormous sacrifices to do so e.. vulnerable children and young people.

The CEV don't get it until after all healthy people over 65 (on current plan) and the CV after that.

So you're asking 'will hospitalisation rates have dropped enough to be noticeable once 1/3 of the population has been vaccinated'

And the answer is probably 'yes'

If you think CEV should be higher priority than 6th, then it might be worth contacting your MP and asking them to ask in the House why one set of scientific advisers say CEV are so at risk they need to self-isolate during times to restriction that is asked of no-one else (including the elderly) whilst another group puts them below healthy people below state retirement age for vaccine

I think it’s unlikely all those groups will be vaccinated by Christmas

It is.

I'g go as far as to say impossible, as there are 14 million eople in the queue before reaching the CEV category, and CV are after that.

Unless they change the priority list. Some mutterings that CEV will be moved up to category 4, in which case there would be 10 million people ahead.

@RancidOldHag The CEV are statistically less likely to be Tory voters than old ppl so good luck

OP, for what it's worth, yes - I think cases will start to drop along with hospital admissions and deaths. I think numbers will fall to very low levels even before the whole vaccination programme has been rolled out.

Few of us on here are virologists and fewer still own a crystal ball, but I think that there is a disproportionate amount of pessimism on these threads and I personally find it best to ignore it.

@Grobagsforever

As soon as we get the over 75's vaccinated the death rate and hospital admissions will drop off a cliff. Life will go back to normal very quickly then. It's just no one wants to admit this has always been about protecting old folks and that other generations have made enormous sacrifices to do so e.. vulnerable children and young people.

I really hope so!

RancidOldHag I did indeed make this very point to my MP, who has said he thinks it is a fair point.
If deaths are lower in the CEV group, it is because they have been restricted and isolated more than any other group...yes to protect themselves but also to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed.

We don't yet know if the vaccine will prevent transmission

It does appear to prevent the serious form of the disease. It's hospitalisation rates to look at - because it might keep in circulation like a common cold, about which we do not worry as people don't get seriously ill.

Bit shit for the 10-30% of people in whom the vaccine does not 'take' if that is the case. As they could get the full form disease, but the numbers won't be enough to overwhelm NHS

[quote Grobagsforever]@RancidOldHag The CEV are statistically less likely to be Tory voters than old ppl so good luck[/quote]
Source??

I’m just thinking that once case numbers start to come down faster then restrictions may start to be eased for all of us

That's been the case since this started and is the point of restrictions in the first place isn't it?

Vacinating those who are sheilding won't affect case numbers as those people wouldn't be getting infected in the first place and I'm not sure about health workers either, won't large numbers of them have already had it?

You could argue that to get back to normal we should vaccinate the younger working age population to try and stop spread from them to the vunerable

@Doordine

OP, for what it's worth, yes - I think cases will start to drop along with hospital admissions and deaths. I think numbers will fall to very low levels even before the whole vaccination programme has been rolled out.

Few of us on here are virologists and fewer still own a crystal ball, but I think that there is a disproportionate amount of pessimism on these threads and I personally find it best to ignore it.

Would be great to see an obvious decrease in death and hospitalisations. It’s so depressing and sad to read the daily number of deaths. The minute I wake up I’m dreading the announcements, I even turned off the sky news notifications from my phone.

I don't think vaccinating NHS/care staff will have the impact you are hoping for, a good chunk of us have already had the virus so should have immunity already and a good chunk seem to be declining the vaccine.

You need two doses 3 or 4 weeks apart, and there is a long queue so it won't be a quick fix either.

I think we need to be patient and look further past that before we can see change happening to be honest.

I don't think I the vaccine stops you being a carrier and spreader, you just don't get as sick..

I heard someone on the radio say there are more men in their 40s in ICU than there are men and women over 80. I suspect quite a large number of the groups will need to be vaccinated before we see the hospital admissions dropping significantly.

I don’t think anyone knows how long the vaccines are effective for, so if they don’t hurry up getting as many people immunised as possible as quickly as possible, I would have thought there’s a risk of immunity dying off in the elderly while the virus is still circulating vigorously in the general community.

Hospital rates should fall, as should death rates. The rates of infection won't change hugely, they might even go up once the vulnerable are protected as our NHS won't be overwhelmed as daily life should start to recover so more non vulnerable people may get infected.

I think I read that the vaccine should protect for about 9 months. So boosters will be needed especially for the older members and CV.

@JS87 there won't be people over 80
In icu. They can't tolerate the interventions so are offered treatments in other ways. ICU is for those fit enough to survive intervention.

The ECV have been pretty much shut away since March anyway, so not the main spreader of cases.

Once care workers and ECV are vaccinated it'll help ease the hospital and death rate.

Hospital admissions should definitely fall. As should deaths.
Rates of infection in the wider community will probably remain the same.

It think that first wave of vaccinations will bring down the hospital and death rates. But I think we will need to see more groups vaccinated before the vaccine affects the number of cases.
If the hospitalizations and deaths are going down the number of cases are irrelevant. It doesn't matter if hundreds of thousands have a virus which isn't making them ill

@RancidOldHag well Tory voting increases with age, whereas the clinically vulnerable are most distributed across age groups and also likely to be more economically deprived areas, which are less likely to vote Tory.

@Grobagsforever

See what you mean, but as you say the CEV are distributed at random. So their MP might or might not be Tory, and might or might not be persuaded to ask a question in the House. And of course aspects of pandemic management are not falling tidily along party line anyhow - Tory rebels who want changes to the tier rules might be sympathetic to img the younger CEV as as priority as part of support to loosening educations around those of working age asap

However the government has moved CEV up to priority 4, so perhaps the need has fallen away, as that seems a much more reasonable level.