@Bluntness100
No, I think this is it now till next year, maybe some slight movement, with some tier threes moving to tier two as cases drop, but I think the intent is this is how it will predominantly stay until a vaccine is well unde way in being rolled out
Looking at the numbers and the pattern of spread, I'm not quite so pessimistic. I do think there is a likelihood of more places dropping out of T3 after the New Year depending on how Christmas goes.
Certainly the trend is downward and T3 restrictions do work. Its how much physically and psychologically the Christmas Break affects things.
Having a few days away from thinking about restrictions in October helped me a great deal to think i could deal with them for a while longer. Other people may go completely the other way though.
I think January will be difficult but i don't see the tiers as they stand remaining until March. There are many places which are seeing large declines which are in part a delayed reaction to T3. I think it does take 3 or 4 weeks for them to have a meaningful effect.
The other thing is that there is a fair suggestion its worked through student populations to a significant degree and its gradually doing the same with school age kids. That's not what teachers and parents want but thats what it looks like has been happening. Numbers do look like they are dropping off. So the Christmas break is falling when the Christmas break in restrictions is occurring which may offset some issues in January.
It depends on how nuts people go. I do think a lot of people will, but i also think a lot will do things in a considered way. I am also surprised the degree to which my friends families arent planning to mix with family. After asking elderly relatives if they want to meet, all have been declined. So they will now probably spend time with friends locally inside which even if it adds to cases is a far better scenario geographically and age wise. I don't know how reflective this is of people's plans but i definitely thought more of them would be travelling / seeing older family members.
I think the argument about which tier West Yorkshire and Manchester are in will be more heated in the New Year. Both are seeing heavy declines in numbers.
Leicestershire is still stubbornly not shifting and the North Easts figures dont look as great as they could do so they've a while to go yet.
Kent is completely fucked though. All the numbers there look bad. I will be surprised if they drop out of T3 before the Spring. Its really on the wrong side of all the trends. And tbh im not sure thats terribly good news for the south east in general.
Stoke is looking pretty dreadful too. And it has high deprivation issues and poor infrastructure. I think they are now under restrictions for the long haul.
Im not really expecting the vaccine rollout to really get going until Feb/March by the time things are organised and we've had a short break over Christmas (even for those in logistic planning there will be a pause simply because they have to coordinate on the ground with people likely to take a significant chunk of time off for Christmas)
So yeah i do see potential for more downward tier changes in January despite Christmas. But definitely not everywhere. And i think that the strengthened tiers are a good thing.
From what i saw the previous T2 was only just having an effect but T3 was doing ok in terms of effectiveness. Adjusting things slightly should help universally.
Its worth pointing out the numbers we are seeing now are really a week behind where we currently are, so places should dip more before we relax the England lockdown.
Tbh im more worried about how crazy people go with shopping than they go with the restriction break. And i think thats whats worth watching.
Im avoiding primark like the plague (or should that be im avoiding the plague at primark?).
We've not seen a lot of talk about the impact of shops reopening only about Christmas itself...