Data : Death Rates

[TheFrendo]

Here is a graph of weekly death rate for the past four years:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/934792/Weekly_report_mortality_W46.pdf

It demonstrates the clear seasonality in death rates. We get a low of ~8000 a week in summer. In winter the rate increases to over ~11,000 a week in a good winter to 14,000+ if we get a bad one.

The same link show that the current death rate is a whisker under 11,000 a week.

At the same time, we have about 3000 deaths a week classed as covid deaths "Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported".

The implication is that covid is responsible for the 3000 deaths, that these deaths are somehow extra, over and above the normal.

I do not see how that can be true, given our current low death rate.

How can we be in the middle of deadly second wave of covid when the weekly death rate is so low?

What is going on?

Significant excess deaths have now certainly returned to England and Wales. ONS data says that in Week 46 excess deaths were 18.4% higher than the five year average for the same week. Deaths were above trend in hospitals, care homes and private homes.
mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1331187066458214401

The data from those two graphs is slightly out of date. The number of daily deaths has been rising since then, so I don’t know if that still holds.

They were mainly in response to the poster who was claiming that overall deaths seem set to match any other year. Which is clearly not true.

“ How can we be in the middle of deadly second wave of covid when the weekly death rate is so low?”

I don’t think we are in the middle of a deadly second wave. But without restrictions we are near the start of a big-but-less-deadly-than-last-time wave.

If we can stop it now, then we avoid the high death rate we saw last time. We also avoid having a proper full lockdown.

We have hopefully learnt that it is easier to stop the virus with early action, rather than waiting until deaths rise to an uncomfortable level.