Given the optimistic press conference tonight - when will we be back to normal?

[Teenageromance]

So v optimistic press conference tonight. Predicted first groups vaccinated next month and then rapidly thrift the age groups in the New Year.
So could we be back to normal end Jan/Feb?

I think Easter is probably more likely but I'd expect incremental, gradual improvement from January (assuming all goes well!)

Depends on how much vaccine there is to go around. The UK has really banked on the Oxford/AstraZenica vaccine for the lion's share of doses we need, and their efficacy data is not yet published.

Was it that optimistic ?

Yes it was

Not enough vaccinations until summer.

Considering they promised we’d have a world bearing track and trace system to allow schools to go back safely. Back to normal by Christmas. You’ll excuse me if I don’t believe them and it’s to bury more bad news about the cabinet.

If the Oxford vaccine is successful, back to normal by easter, if not than most likely next summer or autumn...

Anyway when ever it is, trump gone, out in likely to stand down (don't wish I'll health on anyone tho) and good riddence to the covid day... Even if its late 2021 it seems like the world may feel a better place.

*putin likely to stand down

Will the UK be able to get hold of the vaccine, bearing in mind Brexit complications?

Definitely not January given the amount that will mix over Christmas and new year then take the virus into schools and workplaces. Maybe easter or may if the vaccines go well and we really drive down cases with a strict lockdown things will look much better.

January?!! I think Easter is absolutely best case scenario and fairly unlikely for actual normal although hopefully better than now. Sometime over the summer, for most things. I think international travel for example will take a lot longer.

Surely sooner than Easter if enough get vaccinated

Need to remember 2 jabs 3 weeks apart then a 1 week wait so Decemeber/ jan will be similar to now but looking promising from spring onwards

Sorry to be pessimistic, but based on the country's average performance over the years, I'd say they won't have enough and some people won't get the chance of one until the very end of next year, if at all. I hope to be proved wrong.

I think it’ll be next summer before things are normal (ish) again

I think you heard what you wanted to hear.

No I’m normally quite pessimistic

“Surely sooner than Easter if enough get vaccinated“

That leaked plan is based on some very optimistic assumptions about approval of vaccines and delivery of them. It finishes during April having offered everyone over 18 the vaccine (so probably May before the last ones are actually immune). It’s based on only 75% uptake, so allowing for vaccine not working for everyone, it takes until at least then I reckon to reach herd immunity. We have no idea yet if it actually stops transmission either. In the real world everything will take a lot longer than that plan. Normality in just 2-3 months from now is absolutely cloud cuckoo land. Maybe some improvement to what it’s like now but nowhere near normal by February. Even the very optimistic John Bell said Spring not January!

Next summer at the earliest. It certainly won’t be January!

Won’t the refrigerated lorries of vaccines have the lorry park formerly known as Kent to navigate first?

Let’s be realistic here.

i don't think the vaccine works 100%

there probably won't be enough

people all have to go back for second part of the vaccine after 4 weeks (i believe)...will they bother?

some will refuse it

some will be ill and can't have it

so much can go wrong with it. and then theres any side effects

I think it works both way, there won't be lockdown until the vaccine roll out is completed followed by completely back to normal. It will be a more gradual change.

Once those in the most at risk groups (and therefore the most likely to need hospital treatment and/or die) are vaccinated I'd expect that the vast majority of restrictions can start to be eased off. We are on the home straight now, not quite there but well on the way.

It does look like its the beginning of the end and I was optimistic too, then DH pointed out that its our government here.

It would be great if it all worked out and we were back to normal as soon as that, but realistically I've been looking forward to Easter (not to be back to normal completely, but having fewer restrictions and starting the path back to normal with no more lockdowns again). Don't think it will be as late as the second half of next year, but certainly don't think we will be back to normal in Jan/Feb.

Once the first groups get vaccinated then maybe some restrictions can be lifted and we could be a lot further on the road to normality, but normal life resuming by Feb? Not convinced.

The government are a shower of shite but the NHS are organising the roll out really and the drugs companies are making the vaccines so I'd hope there's a reasonable chance of it not being as much of a disaster as we might think.

I'm assuming that Oxford works in my estimates. If it doesn't (and I think that's spectacularly unlikely) it will take longer, mainly because Oxford are lined up to be the major supplier.

@Teenageromance come over to this thread... I think you'll prefer it

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4051836-Good-News-Thread-part-2