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Basic science and statistical understanding

177 replies

MrsTerryPratchett · 15/11/2020 16:55

I'm not a scientist. I do have a BSc. but nothing more impressive. I do wince when I hear some assumptions that people make who don't have basic science (and statistical) knowledge. What basic scientific or statistical principles do you wish the general public (and members thereof) knew about?

I'll start. Causation and correlation. A correlation doesn't prove causation. Particularly when that correlation is a correlation of one. "I had the flu vaccine and got the flu really badly" isn't causation.

OP posts:
Pinkyxx · 18/11/2020 23:24

@MrsTerryPratchett Thank you!

I love this thread. Nectar for the soul... cathartic, soothing amidst chaos.

bumblingbovine49 · 20/11/2020 13:40

@TheDailyCarbuncle

Added to the above problem is the fact that covid doesn't actually have to be the direct cause of death (hence died with covid), meaning that what's being recorded is any death where the person also tested positive for covid (even if the covid presents no symptoms at all) or any death where the doctor reckons covid was present (don't give a shit about actual cause). What conclusions can be drawn from that data? Well one conclusion is that 'people die and some of them have covid while doing it.' That's about it.
You see, I have to say that posts like this make me question how people see data as well. Of course the specifics of how data is defined , sampled , calculated and presents are very important

However, what is also important is the 'weight of evidence' A lot is often made of the fact that you can't compare countries because they measure things differently and that each country is different . Yet if you take a look at each country there is a remarkably consistent pattern & trends of infections, hospitalisations and deaths. This is the bigger picture.

A lot is made of the specifics of how Covid deaths are calculated in the UK and the fact that this has changed ,as a way of doubting the meaning of that data. Yet it is completely clear that in the context of communicable diseases, deaths due to Covid are very high and that this year it is rivalling the deaths worldwide caused in a year by TB and Malaria (both often cited on here as 'much worse' killers)

0.4 million Malaria deaths worldwide in 2018 - The WHO
1.4 million TB Deaths worldwide in 2019 - The WHO
1.36 million - Deaths worldwide of Covid in 2020 (Jan 2020 - Nov 2020) - Worldometer

Of course I understand the points about Malaria and TB being much much bigger killers over time and that politically they are not given the same resources and weight as Covid because Covid is killing older white people and older white people have more power so it is more important to them. However this does not negate the fact that Covid deaths this year are massive and we have not even completed a year since the pandemic started . The fact that Covid is new is also very important in this context, it is brand new cause of death to add to the list which adds lots of problems related to how the sudden influx of additional ill/dying people are dealt with over a relatively short period of time

I get irritated when people use this nitpicking about data collection to deny the seriousness of the situation or play it down because it is like ignoring the elephant in the room. I am not arguing that everything that has been done in reaction to this pandemic is necessarily proportionate but it definitely needed something doing !

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