Welsh Lockdown didn't work

[starfro]

The latest ONS data has been released today, and although in England the data suggests we're somewhere around the 2nd peak, in Wales they're still not there yet.

Very interesting is the effect (or lack thereof) of the "firebreak". Turns out that preventing people buying kettles in Tescos doesn't achieve all that much.

It’s too early to tell, Drakeford was clear that we wouldn’t see results this soon after coming out of firebreak.

It’s not about buying kettles or not it’s about reducing people in shops, I would have thought that was obvious

Probably needed to be longer.

Really too early to tell. It started on 23rd November and those graphs you are showing are estimates.

Far to early to tell, if you died of Covid tomorrow you most likely caught it a month or more ago. Need at least another week to see positive results

It's calculated using swab tests, so should show an effect about a week or so after the lockdown started, so end of October.

It’s similar to the argument against the firebreak, when “only” 50 or so people were dying per day - but some of the people being diagnosed 3+ weeks ago are now, tragically, among the 500+ dead per day now.
There’s always a gap, so we need to act before the numbers start climbing, and only ease restrictions once they’re really coming down.

The first lockdown did have an effect, but it was helped by the timing (Spring and good weather).

It might be the case that a lockdown in the winter is unable to bring R

It was not about buying kettles but trying to get people to see shopping as essential items only not a trip out and therefore limiting people’s interactions. Given the amount who see shopping as a social event still in England I can see why they went down that route.

Yes it doesn’t look likes it had much impact. Hopefully over the next week or two it may show a bit but it’s not looking too likely now. I think people are starting to realise that unless we shut everything, including all workplaces and schools, a lockdown won’t have effect in winter. It’s just too bad weather to be outside much and people won’t stay away from others that long. Added to transmission in schools and workplaces it doesn’t really stand a chance. The government won’t shut everything down (and they really shouldn’t) so we are going to have to live with the virus for a bit until the vaccines get going.

I don't think it was long enough to have a significant effect.

Not sure if we need to wait longer to know effect.

But ‘firebreak’ suggesting more of a shock than very short lockdown was dubious. It took ages to get numbers down in first one

This is what the Welsh Government modelled would happen, for those interested:

Wales cases by specimen date have started to decline over the past week, post that survey though (which ends on Nov 6) - 7 day cases by specimen date to Nov 9 were down to 874, versus 1269 a week before. 7 day average of people admitted to hospital has been pretty much flat for a couple of weeks, possibly dropping a little the last couple of days.

So it does look like there may well have been some suppressive effect.

The Welsh government were very clear at the start the firebreak lockdown that we would not know the results until weeks after it ended. It might have worked, it might not. Maybe it might be a good idea to wait and see. Also your comment about stopping people buying kettles is childish.

I noticed that both before and after the short lockdown there seemed to be lots of crowding / going out publicised...maybe the before and after made things worse rather than better. I mean they say that is why our numbers are up now- because of the leaking of the lockdown and days prior to it

"Also your comment about stopping people buying kettles is childish."

What's childish is stopping people buying kettles.

Totally agree that stopping supermarkets selling certain items was not good however it was done with the aim of supporting smaller businesses who could not open. Childish no, misguided definitely. The comment did read as childish and I say that as someone living In Wales and listening to all the crap that was being said by all sides in response to this firebreak and supermarkets.

Welsh cases were approaching 2000 as we went into the firebreak, last few days they haven't even reached 1000.

That looks like a positive to me.

The Zoe app region by region data clearly shows cases falling in Wales. That is not the case for all UK regions.

We would be in a far worse situation if it hadn’t happened. Rather than saying it hasn’t worked, ok at it like “this would have been far worse”. Of course banning people from lingering in shops breathing in everything everyone has breathed out will help.
If everyone gets covid and 20% get long covid and can’t work, it doesn’t matter if we saved the economy as they’re all be on ESA and not work and well be fucked anyway.
Also the amount of people sneaking into houses during lock down, hugging nan and having their hair cut will keep the numbers bumped up

Well rates have gone down in my county.

Didn't we have a very similar thread about a week ago?

From Public Health Wales.

My sister in law (in Wales) tested positive for Covid. Her husband, my brother then got sick with similar symptoms (coughing and temp) and when he called T&T they told him not to have a test and to assume it’s Covid.
I wonder whether this is to make a difference to the ‘cases data’ or if I’m just being cynical.