Anyone prepared to admit Mark Drakeford might have been right?

[justchecking1]

Before the Welsh firebreak there were a few threads here about Mark Drakeford being a power mad dictator, and the Welsh being sheep, prepared to sleep walk into having all our rights removed for no good reason, and how stupid we must be to believe it would only be two weeks.

Two weeks later, here we are out of lockdown (albeit with restrictions in place), sitting on a decreasing positive test and death rate, and freely able to go about our kettle-and-duvet-purchasing business, while England sits at the start of a four week lockdown which may or may not be extended.

Anyone prepared to concede that Mark Drakeford might have had the more sensible approach?

@amicissimma why dont you tell me? That is your stupid either/or argument, not mine. You could also supply some figures on how many people are dying each day from lack of psychiatric beds and how this compared to this time last year (I dont know where you are, but round here the provision has been desperate for years). We could then consider the factors that lead to mental health crisis. I think death in the family is one of many things that can destabilise people and send them spiralling. Those people in the COVID beds aren't necessarily as disposable to everyone as you're making them out to be.

@Waxonwaxoff0

But how long until cases start rising again though? Of course they will start decreasing after 2 weeks in lockdown, but let everyone out and it will all go up again.

👏🏼 Which is why lockdowns are bollocks

@porcupineinwaiting
www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/paramedic-callouts-suicides-attempted-london-double-year-a4573283.html%3famp

HTH

Because it encourages people to browse, make an extra trip, go to Tesco for something to do... you have to set a boundary somewhere.

If anyone is allowed to go into their local big supermarket any time they want, then there is literally nothing to stop them popping in multiple times a week if they are bored or fancy a kitkat, whether you ban the sale of books and kettles or not.

@EvilPea

I think he was right to lockdown and use the half term advantage, I think Boris was crazy not doing that in England.

However, I don’t think he was right with the non essential in Tesco debacle.

This. And I don't think he is right to jump straight to 15 people inside and 30 people outside.

I would have thought that opening up to something like the rule of 6 would have been better.

Because it encourages people to browse, make an extra trip, go to Tesco for something to do... you have to set a boundary somewhere

I’m no more likely to ‘browse’ kettles than I am to browse bottles of wine, ice cream and chocolate, all of which was allowed to be sold.

I don't think many disagreed about the firebreak and many speculated England would have one to . In hindsight half term would of been a good idea .
But I disagree with closing non essential aisles in the supermarket I think it's a step to far . I believe Tesco's here have done the same but the big shops where it's on different floors. I do think people possibly should discourage going out for non essentials but what's essential to someone isn't to another and it's the run up to Christmas too .

I thought he was right to do the breaker- now the breaker is working yeah!
I thought he was right to ask (I mean politely ask) not to go out browsing, or making crowds to make the breaker more effective.
I thought he was utterly mad and uncaring about making illegal to sell non-essentials sell in essentials shops, with less than two days notice, and utterly chaotic- I still very much think so.

In general, Wales is doing ok I think. I would not call him a dictator, but he is not infallible.

It's becoming increasingly clear that these national "firebreak" lockdowns weren't necessary. University cases were dropping as the novelty of freshers wore off and the threat of £10k fines made tuition fees look like good value. Tier 3 rules were reducing cases in affected areas in England and I bet that Merthyr's rate is following a similar trajectory. Nothing was achieved by clingfilming the glove aisle. Indeed there was bugger all achieved by closing down bookshops etc in the first place.

I bet that Merthyr's rate is following a similar trajectory

Not so far.

And I don't think he is right to jump straight to 15 people inside and 30 people outside

The 15/30 rule is for "organised activities" only though which can't take place inside people's homes or include the use of alcohol and the organiser must do a risk assessment. We still can't mix inside our own homes apart from being allowed to bubble with one other household.

I think Mark's doing OK. It would be better to have a UK wide joined up appraoch but Johnson has been shite at talking to the devolved nations.

I think the Welsh Government need to make it clearer that the rule of 15 is for organised events that have been risk assessed, yoga classes, swimming lessons etc, not a party in someone's house!

@Ymlaen

I think the Welsh Government need to make it clearer that the rule of 15 is for organised events that have been risk assessed, yoga classes, swimming lessons etc, not a party in someone's house!

Absolutely. I know plenty of people who view it as a reason they can have a piss up.

FWIW I think the majority don't understand the rules, rather than are intentionally finding ways around them.

Oh, look at this.

In particular:

Meanwhile, 60 independent fashion shops have teamed up to campaign against the impact of the coronavirus curbs.

Boutiques in Business say that the government should think again.

The organisation is led by fashion shop owner Amanda Leigh Slattery, who complains that "essential" retailers such as supermarkets and garden centres are being allowed to sell "non-essential" items including clothes.

"You can go to supermarkets and buy chinos, jeans or a white shirt - none of that is essential," she said.

Just goes to prove - you can't win, because (as I've said before) there is no elusive magic global pandemic scenario where absolutely fucking everybody wins.

in this particular instance, it boils down to whether you want to upset an independent shop owner who stands to lose their livelihood, or a random member of the public who WANTS THEIR TIN OPENER NOW!!! (And yes, I know there were cases of people being genuinely inconvenienced, which is why Drakeford changed the rules to allow for discretion.)

Boutiques in Business"s customers might be a bit pissed off if they do need to buy anything in an emergency and were prevented from doing so because of these edicts.

I heard someone from a small business on the London news say it wasnt fair that supermarkets could continue to sell non essentials when they couldnt.

Just one short year ago a lot of these businesses didnt even want socialism. Now they want something more "extreme" ??

@WhoopsSomethingWentWrong

I bet that Merthyr's rate is following a similar trajectory

Not so far.

Week 45 is certainly lower than Week 44 was (still extremely high, but down a third). Given the incubation periods it is far too soon for the national lockdown to have been the cause of the drop.

There's an awful lot of finger pointing at Merthyr Tydfil in this thread, of the sort I don't remember seeing, but may have missed when it was Oldham, Stockport, Nottingham, Manchester, Liverpool etc. Merthyr Tydfil is a town with a population of 60k people, which skews the numbers somewhat.

Just bumping this thread to see if the OP (and others) might have reappraised their thoughts on the situation given the latest developments.

OP? @justchecking1

In what way? Do you mean the numbers increasing or the latest set of rules?

From your OP:
Anyone prepared to concede that Mark Drakeford might have had the more sensible approach?

We'll start with the new rules.

• Closing all indoor entertainment
• Closing hospitality after 18:00
• Banning all consumption of alcohol on licenced premises.

Is there any evidence that Covid is more likely to spread over dinner than it is over lunch? Is there any evidence that banning alcohol consumption on even the most Covid-secure, well-managed premises won't just encourage people to gather in private homes instead?

Many businesses are worried that they won't actually receive any financial support until January, by which time many will have gone under.

Many people I know have had their remaining patience pushed too far this time. Many of those who were broadly supportive and also those (like myself) who weren't but followed the rules have now snapped.

Oh, we've now seen evidence from Belgium that closing non-essential shops had nothing to do with stopping the spread, it was always just a show of muscle.

So, OP, do you still believe that MD has a sensible approach.

Oh, we've now seen evidence from Belgium that closing non-essential shops had nothing to do with stopping the spread, it was always just a show of muscle

Its called tokenism

Covid theatre?

It's really difficult with the pubs because some were following the rules and making sure their customers did, and others were not.

Then you get the "lets punish the whole class" scenario because there aren't the resources to go round checking all the pubs and making sure they are following and enforcing the rules. Not sure what you can do really.

At least closing at 6pm means you can meet friends for lunch inside in Wales, you can't do that in most of England.