Are numbers stabilising?

[BettysSpaghetti]

I’ve read a few reports that numbers are stabilising and if you look at the government’s own graphs they seem to be and the rate of growth has decreased.

It gives a bit of hope that local lockdowns do work. Hopefully soon they should start heading downwards

Could be yes probably a bit early to call it a trend but looks promising, the areas around Liverpool that went into tier three first are all dropping so generally it looks “hopeful” but the last time it was looking hopeful the government found a load of extra cases down the back of the sofa! So we will have to wait a bit longer to know if the trend continues

Looks like it, hopefully that means back out into the tier system in a few weeks time

Really hoping it continues, we could all do with a bit of positive news

The cases stabilising has nothing at all to do with this lockdown. We only went into lockdown three days ago.

@Hyperbolistic

The cases stabilising has nothing at all to do with this lockdown. We only went into lockdown three days ago.

OP has referred to local lockdowns and not a national lockdown.

I think it’s because it was half term .

I think the local lockdowns were working, but it’s fairer that we all went into national lockdown although where I live we were in tier 1. I really hope the numbers continue going down and not so many people going into hospital as these haven’t seen any decrease yet.

@ellaballoo is right - it’s because of half term.

Useful summary here: mobile.twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1325434734013517824

I'm not convinced by the half term argument. This graph (credit to RP131 on Twitter) shows cases per100,000 by age and specimen date. If half term was the main driver you'd expect to see big drops in the relevant age ranges a week or so after the holidays started and I don't think we're seeing that.

What is happening with the 10-19 curve? Is completely different from the others? Looking good in that age range!

I think it is too soon to really tell yet (as it takes 2-3 weeks after the event to see it, it could be the half term effect?), but there is a plateau tendency in OP graph, and a downwards in the cases per 100000 one. Fingers crossed we will keep heading downwards in those curves!

@Hyperbolistic

The cases stabilising has nothing at all to do with this lockdown. We only went into lockdown three days ago.

I know. That’s why I said ‘local lockdowns’ the ones we had under the 3 tier system

@MushMonster

What is happening with the 10-19 curve? Is completely different from the others? Looking good in that age range!

I think it is too soon to really tell yet (as it takes 2-3 weeks after the event to see it, it could be the half term effect?), but there is a plateau tendency in OP graph, and a downwards in the cases per 100000 one. Fingers crossed we will keep heading downwards in those curves!

That green line is interesting. Dates are too small on my phone to see it

Sorry I didn't read the OP properly.
The 10-19 curve is interesting, I'd assumed it would still be going up in that age group so it's really encouraging.

Obviously need exact ages. Maybe that was the uni students. It was a lot of asymptomatic testing. Unless this is ons?

I think it is too early to say.
Cases rise and fall on a daily basis but todays case figures are promising.
Cases are still rising in more areas than falling and testing has reduced.

IMO local lockdowns do not work. My area has been in measures/ tier 3 since July and cases surged when schools returned. Half term will have had an impact.

Wont there be an increase in known cases in the near future with the mass testing in Liverpool?

Not that that will mean cases have necessarily increased

I was thinking the same as @BonnieDundee. We're likely to see a rise in cases die to the mass testing in Liverpool.

The government have been saying that they’ve been stabilising for a week or so now. I’ve only really noticed a dip very recently. Graphs wiggle. Testing rates vary over half term. I’m going to withhold opinion for a week or so.

Hum the pink section on that graph shows lag which is saying they have more data to add.

You can also never look at these things in isolation positive tests maybe down but so is actual testing if you look at how many tests are being done
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I still don't think they are catching any where near all the cases in high school children as they are only testing children with the three specific covid signs. It will be interesting to see what this blanket test of all high school children in Liverpool shows.