R = 1 across UK, pre-lockdown

[starfro]

Both the King's College and the ONS data are both showing a plateau in new infections.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/over-the-second-wave

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54841375

It does beg the question, if the Tier system was working, why lockdown? I suspect the answer is political and to stop the North (Red Wall) where immunity is/was lower feeling targetted by level 3 restrictions.

It's possible but given that in the first lockdown, we also locked down after cases had peaked, I wonder if it's a deliberate political decision to lockdown when they know cases are about to fall, so they can claim it 'worked'.

The data shown to us during the last announcement was all wrong, the ombudsman is looking into it and the govt are under scrutiny. Not really a surprise is it given the shambles of it all. They're enjoying the power they have over is just now and seeing how long they can get people to comply for. This lockdown is more of a social experiment imo.

Because the government don't care about our mental health.

If it is spreading mainly in schools, could the plateau be due to half term as this was spread at different times across the U.K. from 9th October up until Monday just gone? Not sure if it is too soon to tell but could be a possibility?

@Coasterfan

If it is spreading mainly in schools, could the plateau be due to half term as this was spread at different times across the U.K. from 9th October up until Monday just gone? Not sure if it is too soon to tell but could be a possibility?

Yep. School holidays are well known to slow/stop the spread of disease. You can see this very clearly if you look at the data for the swine flu epidemic. It's a crying shame that we didn't follow the Welsh and lockdown over half term as that would have helped get R down really low. We really do need to get numbers down significantly before Christmas as R will almost certainly shoot up dramatically then with the added problem of large amounts of movement around the country. We could easily end up back in a situation like March where the disease is spread around all of the country.

@Coasterfan

If it is spreading mainly in schools, could the plateau be due to half term as this was spread at different times across the U.K. from 9th October up until Monday just gone? Not sure if it is too soon to tell but could be a possibility?

This. I’d be very surprised if this wasn’t the explanation. The conclusion being that the best way to bring the R back down to one is to close schools. Given there are plenty of valid reasons for not doing that, then lockdown is the only other way of getting the numbers back under control.

The explanation is immunity. A large proportion of schoolkids will have now had it and recovered (90% without symptoms). This is why in school ages the infection % was going down, prior to half term.

We need to get the cases DOWN as if they carry on at the rate they are per day, even if not growing, the hospitals will be overwhelmed. Hence lockdown then back to tier system to maintain the R at 1, with a hopefully lower prevalence

It plateaued here 1 week before half term with a slow decline since. Tier 2 restrictions seemed to be the reason.

Currently the R rate is between 1.1-1.3 though??

I suspect the answer is political and to stop the North (Red Wall) where immunity is/was lower feeling targetted by level 3 restrictions.

Or that we had to lockdown the whole country when the south was leading the previous wave (and to a much greater extent), so fair’s fair this time

@starfro

The explanation is immunity. A large proportion of schoolkids will have now had it and recovered (90% without symptoms). This is why in school ages the infection % was going down, prior to half term.

Or, because half term is at different points in October across the country, the dip 'before your half term' was because not all kids were in school.

In my area, the end of half term week so numbers of cases drop. End if this week, first week back, cases have risen again and going up.