Timing of lockdown

[bathsh3ba]

In my local area, cases (which have always been low) are slowing in growth. The local campus uni is also getting a slowdown in growth of cases and fewer households isolating, ie it looks like the second wave may have gone past its peak in cases here. I understand cases are also slowing in Liverpool and in some other areas.

Given that the peak of the first wave was too soon after lockdown for the slowdown to have been caused by lockdown, does that suggest a policy of locking down just after peak cases? If so why, how does that make sense if we are on the way down? None of this makes any sense to me!

I was wondering that as our cases have started going down too. But I think it may be because it hopefully ensures that cases do actually fall and quicker, rather than people seeing them going down and start going out everywhere again and cases spreading again

@Racoonworld, maybe, but if so it seems a bit dishonest to say that we're locking down to prevent imminent collapse of the NHS if that isn't really what we are doing.

@bathsh3ba - totally agree with you. But it seems to me that the only way the government can get any kind of ongoing public support for these very damaging measures is to play the NHS card, and keep playing it.

I thought the calculations of NHS beds required, well there is a lag isn't there. So infections recorded last week you look at hospital beds in 10-14 days time, and each patient needs say 10 days as an in-patient, so cases dropping slightly is of course positive, but that doesn't mean that in 2-3 weeks beds might be full.

This is a contributing factor to why this goes on and on and on, it's not a quick fix.

Case rate in my local area is down almost 45% on last week!!! And was already dropping the week that EEC decided we needed to go in to tier 2.
I'm really confused why all of a sudden we need to be locked down.

We needed to be locked down because London was heading to tier 3 and the Gov didn't want the bad publicity that would generate so did a national lockdown. Madness as we are in a tier 1 area with very few cases.

My city is going down too. I'm glad but it's still crazy high so I'm pleased we are locking down