Rational thread on the risks of schools staying open

[WhatWillSantaBring]

I understand that there are a lot of strong feelings on this so hoping that we can limit this thread to facts and data (rather than emotions).

What (formal) evidence is there that teachers are at a greater risk than the general population?

What (formal) evidence is there that children are passing the infections to adults?

I've seen the data that educational institutes are associated with increased infection rates (though really unhelpful that the data isn't split between nursery/primary/secondary/tertiary) but that doesn't distinguish between the numbers of the pupils getting infected and the numbers of adults in those settings getting infected. In my head, if schools were responsible for the spread, you would expect to see (a) a higher incidence of C19 in teachers and (b) a higher incidence of C19 in the parents of school aged children. Is there data to back this up?

The only study I've found so far is one in Sweden (where schools stayed open throughout the spring) which gave a relative risk of between 0.7 and 1.1.

I'm really curious about this, and hoping that some epidemiologists are lurking and will post me some links to peer reviewed studies. (Disclaimer: I'm not a scientist but I can read and follow most scientific papers)

Bedraggled, my graph is of random testing, therefore the best picture of what is going on in schools as the ‘cases are dropping’ graphs coincide with a campaign by the government to only get children tested if they have one of the adult symptoms (which most children don’t get).

It clearly shows a real issue in secondary school age, and sixth form age (although these are lumped in with uni students).

The occupation data showing education workers at lower risk comes from when schools were closed to most children.

The government hasn’t released occupation data recently which raises suspicions as if it looked good it would support their argument.

Data from other countries is largely irrelevant in England as we have very few mitigation measures in place. Ireland, for example, has masks in classrooms.

it might be the case but if the class size of sixth forms are bringing down that average that would be even better for us in terms of managing covid

Yes, a lot of sixth form classes are much smaller than the average. Some classes at our school have only a handful of pupils, especially in 'unpopular' A level subjects.

I'd be interested in a proper more detailed breakdown of Sen schools.

They're increasing in number in terms of number of onward transmissions. Certainly in primary there's no masks wearing and no SD. Usually more members of staff.

I know of, anecdotally and locally, a few that had to fully shut due to either too many bubbles or staff absence, including both staff and pupils cases.

Bar the fact I really feel for those staff and any vulnerable children being put at risk (Sen schools can often have older staff as they're often v experienced and have worked their way in from mainstream) it would be interesting to find out which way transmission has occurred.

There's also issues with transport as most pupils in sen schools qualify for taxis. I think smaller taxis are being used by most but travelling for 15-40 mins each way in small spaces will be a risk.

I think there would be some clear data to be seen there, under more "normal" circumstances.

I do think they should allow CEV children / teachers and parents to make there own choices though. Keep schools open but don’t force those at most risk to attend.

Great ons link; as predicted, Sen staff are usually older and on a par with nursery and primary staff for exposure to infections, and near care home staff.

Secondary staff are supposedly lower risk according to this.

I need to point out, and a Gp friend was shocked about this today, we, the staff, aren't wearing masks anywhere in sen primary schools.

Going back again to the what we DON'T know. We don't do backwards tracing of contacts in this country. So test and trace only ask who you might have transmitted TO. Not where you originally got the virus FROM.

So, if children are largely asymptomatic, they will not be tested. Their contacts will not be traced. If an adult picks up the virus from their asymptomatic children or pupils, how would we obtain that data? We don't collect that data.

All we do collect is who are the contacts of a person who develop symptoms and tests positive. So usually an adult will show up as the index case and children will slip under the radar.

I am not aware of any study in this country that does the meticulous backwards tracing that you would need in order to figure that out. Countries that do backwards tracing effectively didn't send children back to school until they had eliminated community transmission, so they will also have limited data.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

I do think schools need to stay open, but I also think there needs to be a flexible system for vulnerable teachers and students to wfh/study from home. At the moment the insistence that everybody is in is wrong, I feel.

I agree completely.

Schools need to remain open.

And vulnerable teachers and children should be allowed to stay at home.

They clearly don't yet have the data.

www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforhouseholdsandindividuals/householdandindividualsurveys/covid19schoolsinfectionsurveysis#how-to-take-part

What do posters class as a vulnerable teacher?

What do posters class as a vulnerable teacher?

Hopefully their GP or Consultant would be able to advise them on that.

@NeurotrashWarrior

What do posters class as a vulnerable teacher?

Covid age over 60 ?

For those who are saying rates are going down in Ireland with schools open I thought that they had just returned after an extended half term period ?

Really interested to read this thread and hope it stays focused.
Would really love to see mass testing in schools and decent contact tracing to understand what’s happening. Hopefully the tests in Liverpool might start to give us a clear picture.

Vulnerable teachers - over 60, prior health conditions eg cancer, pregnant. Not hard really.

For those who are saying rates are going down in Ireland with schools open I thought that they had just returned after an extended half term period ?

You’re thinking of NI.

No extension in ROI, half term was last week, so too recent to impact the figures coming out now.

@NeurotrashWarrior

What do posters class as a vulnerable teacher?

The NHS site breaks down CEV and CV

The former about 3% of population not sure percentage of teachers but second group is larger

I think that's the concern that some teachers have. CEV shouldn't have gone back in sept, though many did. CV aren't now included in much though it was mentioned in the last address by Boris.

Risks for long Covid are middle aged, female, asthma and overweight.

Lack of masks in primary is an issue. A Gp friend today was shocked they're not being used in corridors or meetings.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-children-do-not-increase-risk-to-adults-they-live-with-new-research-shows-12122573

8 percent risk of indefection but not death.

But was done between May and Aug and not peer reviewed.