Leaked documents

[Nellodee]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54756950

So, what jumps out at me from these leaked documents is that if we remain on the current course, we will have run out of hospital beds everywhere in the country by the end of December. That's with cancelling all operations, using the Nightingales, emptying out 50% of non-Covid beds, everything.

But the other thing that jumps out of me is that most of the models show the peak number of deaths occurring after that date.

People who are against a lockdown, this is the reality. If we do not have a lockdown, then at the peak of this pandemic, no-one will be able to access hospital care.

No-one.

There has always been a disinclination to really picture what an overwhelmed NHS would really look like

Or to,think what general sick leave rates would be like when that point is reached, let alone what those things mean for the chaotic collapse of the economy

I think in this case, a shortage of imagination might be a blessing.

I read the document and can’t understand why schools/colleges won’t be closed! The infection rate for young people, say in secondary school or college, is rising fast and that’s without the risks then to family members of these students. No-one can bear the thought of a full lockdown but then the scenario described in the leaked document is surely much worse. 😭

Yes, that has been a frustrating thing.

The NHS was 'overwhelmed' last time - it basically shut down. Some routine stuff was happening, but lots wasn't. Everyone moaned about that and said we needed to keep it open for everything else - covid not being the only illness etc. What do think they think will happen 'next' time? It'll be worse.

Whats the crack with all of the 'leaks'. Have never known anything like it. Its almost certain at this stage that 'leaks' are purposely coming from the government. And thats a shitty way to communicate with the public tbh.

This is hugely conerning though of course. I take (slight) comfort in the fact that deaths and such are not rising as quickly as would be 'expected' with the current positive test numbers though. I also acknowledge things could change very quickly. Thousands of deaths per day has been estimated at many times throughout this crisis, and luckily has not yet materialised since the first wave.

I am not surprised hospitals will be overwhelmed. This happens a lot of the time with only 'the usual' winter bugs. So add in another and its going to be a struggle of course. Its a sad thing, that our health service has been (purposely IMO) ran into the ground. We might not still have needed some short lockdowns mind, as even the likes of germany have had issues and their health service is fantastic. But we wouldn't be in such a bad situation. What I don't get really, is how on earth its been allowed to get to this stage. When hospitals are struggling even without a pandemic..theres a issue. Yet it seems something people are just willing to accept? 'Ah yes, hospitals are full in flu season, its awful' but never any actual change. We should be able to cope with a bad bug season surely. It shouldn't be the norm for hospitals to be bursting this time of year even without this covid thing.

It’s such a shame that the government are still basing policy on the discredited and scaremongering Imperial projections. Nowhere in the world has had deaths in proportion to the 600,000 they predicted here in March.

To have 4000 deaths a day as they’re predicting, you’d need more than a million cases a day. There is no evidence that is even possible given the levels of immunity in many areas.

Even King’s College London are saying these Imperial figures are just nonsense. They have predicted a doubling time of 28 days, which would not overwhelm the NHS.

It is all beyond me why shielding was not reintroduced on a voluntary and funded basis weeks ago. This would have reduced hospital admissions substantially.

All models predict that hospitalisations are likely to peak in mid-December, with deaths rising until at least late December before falling from early January.

This part is interesting though. I wonder why they suspect numbers will randomly fall? I thought 'no immunity' was the current line. If people do not get any immunity, and can catch this over and over again, and it remains as contagious as it is now, then why would numbers fall after xmas? They would be expected to continue swelling until a vaccine surely?

(Not a sciencey person, just a bit confused about that bit)

I suppose if they are predicting 4000 deaths a day, and the CFR is somewhere around the 0.5% mark, that relates to a peak of 800,000 new cases a day. I suppose at some point, there will just be less people available to catch it and the rate will slow. Virus growth is never purely exponential, the rate at which it increases is always slowing gradually as the vulnerable population shrinks.

I don't think there is no immunity at all, just that it may not be long lasting or work in all cases.

@Ecosse

It’s such a shame that the government are still basing policy on the discredited and scaremongering Imperial projections. Nowhere in the world has had deaths in proportion to the 600,000 they predicted here in March.

To have 4000 deaths a day as they’re predicting, you’d need more than a million cases a day. There is no evidence that is even possible given the levels of immunity in many areas.

Even King’s College London are saying these Imperial figures are just nonsense. They have predicted a doubling time of 28 days, which would not overwhelm the NHS.

It is all beyond me why shielding was not reintroduced on a voluntary and funded basis weeks ago. This would have reduced hospital admissions substantially.

Are you just copying and pasting this everywhere?

The IFR is 0.3% and possibly less @Nellodee.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-rates-are-not-surging

So why do King's College say this?

The IFR is not known precisely. If you calculate an average from all countries around the world, it is around the figure you give. However, many of the countries have poor reporting of deaths and lower life expectancies. In high income countries, it is supposed to be far higher, with some studies placing it as high as 1%. I have gone for a fairly moderate 0.5%. You, as usual, have cherry picked.

The leaked figures show projections from:

Imperial
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Public Health England / Cambridge
Rheumatology Winter Clinical Symposium
Warwick

The lowest of these shows a most likely scenario of deaths approaching 2,000 per day.

This is not Imperial v Kings College. This is a consensus.

@IrkedEssex

Because the imperial figures are based on totally implausible assumptions and are vastly exaggerated. Just as they were in March.

Yet we are still basing policy decisions on them. It is madness.

@Nellodee

I don't think there is no immunity at all, just that it may not be long lasting or work in all cases.

Well thats much more hopeful than a lot of people make it out to be. Have been told multiple times that there is no immunity..and when I say that I thought there was, I am accused of being an anti-masker

Massively scary projections though. Hopefully its a massive overestimate like other models have been.

They are the projections IF we don't do anything.

Of course, we will do something. Then people will say, "The projections were wrong."

@Nellodee
Imperial said that doing nothing would lead to 600,000 deaths in March.

No country in the world has had that level of deaths regardless of what measures they have or haven’t taken.

It is all beyond me why shielding was not reintroduced on a voluntary and funded basis weeks ago. This would have reduced hospital admissions substantially

I don't think there have been any published figures on admissions amongst these who were/are on the shielded list. Have you seen any?

[quote Ecosse]@Nellodee
Imperial said that doing nothing would lead to 600,000 deaths in March.

No country in the world has had that level of deaths regardless of what measures they have or haven’t taken.[/quote]
Name a high income country that has done nothing.

using the Nightingales

There's no staff for the Nightingale Hospitals to be used to anywhere near their capacity. Just another very expensive failed project.