We can’t afford a second lockdown - Uk already heading for a double dip recession

[LilMama05]

How much more of this can we truly afford? I would love to lockdown again and save lives but is this actually economically viable anymore.

www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/covid-19-second-wave-pushing-uk-to-brink-of-double-dip-recession

If lockdowns actually worked, we wouldn't be going into a second lockdown would we? But I guess it's ok for people to lose their jobs, businesses, homes, mental health and have no food because lockdowns did work didn't it?

@dusselty

If lockdowns actually worked, we wouldn't be going into a second lockdown would we? But I guess it's ok for people to lose their jobs, businesses, homes, mental health and have no food because lockdowns did work didn't it?

I don't agree that they don't work, they clearly work if the sole aim is to slow the virus.

But obviously, when you open up businesses- and obviously schools- and allow more normality, a virus is going to do what a virus does, lo and behold, and spread. The colder weather is probably having an effect too.

However I don't disagree at all that it is an absolute nightmare economically, in other areas of health, mental health and education. And for the future of all of us perhaps (unluckily) imagining we could be on this shit show of a planet for another 50 years. There needs to be balance with all of the decisions that are made, and it feels like the government completely fucked up on getting us into a position where people's livelihoods and mental health could be prioritised. Our children's education and future should have been the priority.

If the tories are re-elected, stop the world, I really will want to get off.

I was very much we can’t afford another lockdown, but sadly the rate the numbers are going I think we will be forced into one.

While no fan of this government those suggesting it’s all their fault for not getting track and trace sorted, literally every country in Europe has escalating cases. Germany’s track and trace (and they have done much better then us) has been overwhelmed.

The problem is too many people think there are easy answers “circuit breaks”, “track and trace” and there isn’t. (Countries like South Korea/Taiwan with effective track and trace, have strict isolation, imprisonments for breaking rules, they use your back details to hunt down contacts). The only way we can get on top of this virus is reducing our contacts to a minimum and that goes against human nature.

many sectors of the economy make a large part of their annual income because of Christmas

@AlecTrevelyan006 Sure. But unfortunately I can’t see the hospitality industry getting a Christmas boost no matter how hard we lockdown between now and Christmas. People can still give each other presents. It’s just the idea that we kill the economy so people can trek all over the country to hug older, more vulnerable relatives just seems insane.

I think their overestimating how much we like Christmas. It’s one day.

@BlueStarRose

I was very much we can’t afford another lockdown, but sadly the rate the numbers are going I think we will be forced into one.

While no fan of this government those suggesting it’s all their fault for not getting track and trace sorted, literally every country in Europe has escalating cases. Germany’s track and trace (and they have done much better then us) has been overwhelmed.

The problem is too many people think there are easy answers “circuit breaks”, “track and trace” and there isn’t. (Countries like South Korea/Taiwan with effective track and trace, have strict isolation, imprisonments for breaking rules, they use your back details to hunt down contacts). The only way we can get on top of this virus is reducing our contacts to a minimum and that goes against human nature.

To be honest I think even if they put us into another lockdown, whether it's right or wrong, the compliance levels will not be like they were back in March/April. Germany may be facing a resurgence and I don't claim to know what the German people think of Merkel but I do know that they have far greater capacity in hospitals at all times therefore seem to give more of a shit about public health, and I can't imagine anyone could have quite so little respect for a leader who does actually seem to be a proper politician as opposed to the bumbling twat we have- and people here are surely increasingly pissed off with him and his Eton crew of dimwit incompetent cronies.

We have brexit coming up too and I really wonder what the compliance will be, amongst a population of people fatigued by months of this, who are angry with the governments response, and the shit show that will be brexit on top and its effects. Particularly amongst students- I really do wonder what will happen.

Ecosse I can assure you long COVID fucking does.

[quote Ecosse]@FourTeaFallOut

As a management consultant, I do have a good understanding of a wide range of issues.

I also have the critical thinking skills to be able to analyse statements put forward and challenge them.[/quote]

Ha!

Ecosse and their "...as a management consultant" statement again.

As another management consultant I think Ecosse is wrong in almost everything they say.

As another management consultant I'm disappointed that a management consultant would make such strong statements without ever providing references.

@Porcupineinwaiting

Oh so Ecosse is a management consultant? So that's why she's always making up her own facts, statistics and spouting dodgy nonsense with an air of authority.

That makes a lot of sense. I did wonder.

Ouch.

Please don't make assumptions about all of us based on Ecosse!

Most management consultants I know don't agree with her(?) take on the COVID situation.

@RainbowParadise I agree I don’t think the compliance will be as high this time, in particular meeting up with others indoors. The weather is worse. The days are shorter and people are fatigued.

Re Long COVID
doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3981

I hope the BMJ remembered to run all this by a management consultant?

Things are not getting any better.
Full lockdown in ROI is getting results.
Hospitals are overwhelmed. We are along way from clear in this
Economy is suffering but so are people.
Stay safe you all. Europe is in bad shape.
.

@FourTeaFallOut

I hope the BMJ remembered to run all this by a management consultant?

Ha indeed.

What even is a ‘management consultant?’

Ecosse, your misplaced self importance is hilarious!

@Nannyamc

Things are not getting any better. Full lockdown in ROI is getting results. Hospitals are overwhelmed. We are along way from clear in this Economy is suffering but so are people. Stay safe you all. Europe is in bad shape. .

It’s almost as if no one ever gets respiratory diseases at this time of year

Management consultants are the ones being paid thousands a day to oversee the failing track and trace system while the ‘clinical’ phone lines are staffed by 18 year olds being paid less than £7 an hour.

What do you mean at this time of year? The end of October is small change for flu compared to December, January and February.

Rishi is that you?

@FourTeaFallOut

What do you mean at this time of year? The end of October is small change for flu compared to December, January and February.

Flu season begins in October generally and peaks in December/ January

So, yeah numbers will normally have started rising by now

Yes, they rise in October but it doesn't touch the sides of hospital capacity yet.

This is a CDC chart of prevalence across the flu season so can't be a neat fit with the UK but it's clear that whilst It’s almost as if no one ever gets respiratory diseases at this time of year is literally true it certainly doesn't explain the scales of stress the health services are under in Europe at this point.

Ok, I'm in Melbourne, and we're just starting to move out of a very long and very strict lockdown. Do you know how our contact tracing is working at the moment?

Someone with COVID (pre symptom) visited a cafe. EVERY person who visited that cafe that day is considered a close contact. That can be hundreds of people just there. Our numbers are now low enough that close contacts of those close contacts ALSO have to go into isolation for 14 days. So that's potentially thousands of people EACH time they find a positive case. (The person who spread it was exactly that, a close contact of a close contact of the COVID case and spread it before the intermediate close contact tested positive).

There is no way you could do that with your current numbers. The number of people that need to be tracked down is staggeringly high.

Contact tracing is impossible to do effectively until the numbers go down. To get them down you need to go through restrictions/lockdown.

thousands of people die or end up disabled due to long covid
The is zero evidence of ‘long Covid’ just another bogeyman to scared the hard of thinking.