When?

[autumndream]

If we do have a 2nd lockdown in England when do you predict it'll be?

I suspect regional. Cases in Greater Manchester are still rising exponentially, one week into tier 3. At the beginning of October Stockport was on 202 per 100k, now it's 444 per 100k.

Within the next two weeks.

Regional first

January, if we can hang on that long. . Because no-one goes out in January anyway.

Because no-one goes out in January anyway.

I see the logic, but I think it’s harsh. Christmas and early January used to be really hard when I lived by myself... and restaurants/cinemas etc were really busy, so there must be a decent amount of people who go out. I’m married now, but I’d worry a lot about people with shit home situations or who have no one if they pick what I’d already one of the hardest months to lockdown.

That said, I think it’ll be inevitable and long lasting if we make it to January and it hasn’t happened already. The peak of deaths were expected then, as in flu season etc.

I'm trying to stay optimistic, I have a lodge booked for my husbands 50th on 23rd November just really hope it's after that!

Monday 10th November. Just a feeling!

I think at some point in November and then yay all good for Christmas. Or maybe not.

Not feeling good about this. :(

I think January will be far too late, maybe two are needed. One to kerb cases now and one post Christmas to stop the inevitable spread from the rule breaking that’s likely to occur.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

I think January will be far too late, maybe two are needed. One to kerb cases now and one post Christmas to stop the inevitable spread from the rule breaking that’s likely to occur.

I think its needed now or else we will see 1000 deaths a day very soon. And yes, no doubt after Christmas we will be back on the same trajectory.

Christmas will be a super spreader event so I would think death rates by mid jan will force a national lockdown .
Maybe we might get a two week circuit breaker end of nov but am not so sure on that one . But I will put money on mid jan lockdown

Please no national lockdown., please.

I really hope we don't!
Do you think they'll try lockdowns for the worst affected areas first before a national one?

It doesn't make sense to have a national lockdown. Regional, tier based management is best .

I agree

Beginning of December. And they'll tell us that since schools close for two weeks over Xmas anyway, and lots of businesses also close during that time, that we will get a month's lockdown for the sake of only two weeks missed iyswim?

@BabyLlamaZen Monday is 9th, not 10th. Really hope it’s not that day as my DS1 has an important exam! Anyway, a national lockdown seems crazy. Cases have gone down in my area over the last couple of weeks. Now 68 per 100,000.
They were at 82 per 100,000 a couple of weeks ago.

The management of Covid has got to be adaptive. Look at the infection map and how it varies by region. Shutting everything down at the same time is of no use. You need to control the virus based on regional spread and there is no need to shut everything down, it's sufficient to reduce people's interaction. A tier-based approach is more effective in terms of virus control and less harmful for the economy.

That map will all be red by January

Second half of November.

I just think that if we had one in Jan no one would mind so much. It could probably start on 27/12 and go to the end of Jan.
Everyone has spent all their money. The weather is shit, e're all on diets, and we could make a collective new year resolution to wash our hands, wear a mask, and keep away from each other for a month.

Maybe a later but stricter lockdown that people feel more able to stick to than an earlier one which, judging by comments on some threads on here, people are likely to largely ignore.

Looks like it's going to be weds 😭

It's unconfirmed still, but if it is announced next week I can't see it being lifted on 1st dec. call me pessimistic, but it non-essential shops close for a month then open on 1st dec we'd see a huge rush of Christmas shoppers and even our government must understand that would defeat the point.

At the same time, that loss of trade over the Christmas period would/will be utterly devastating to so many and too many would not recover- large chains as well as small businesses.